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Winter (December, January, and February (DJF)) precipitation over northwest India (NWI) is mainly associated with the eastward moving mid-latitude synoptic systems, western disturbances (WDs), embedded within the subtropical westerly jet (SWJ), and is crucial for Rabi (DJF) crops. In this study, the role of winter precipitation at seasonal and monthly scale over NWI and its nine meteorological subdivisions has been analyzed. High-resolution (0.25° × 0.25°) gridded precipitation data set of India Meteorological Department (IMD) for the period of 1901-2013 is used. Results indicated that the seasonal precipitation over NWI is below (above) the long-term mean in most of the years, when precipitation in any of the month (December/January/February) is in deficit (excess). The contribution of December precipitation (15-20%) to the seasonal (DJF) precipitation is lesser than January (35-40%) and February (35-50%) over all the subdivisions. December (0.60), January (0.57), and February (0.69) precipitation is in-phase (correlation) with the corresponding winter season precipitation. However, January precipitation is not in-phase with the corresponding December (0.083) and February (−0.03) precipitation, while December is in-phase with the February (0.21). When monthly precipitation (December or January or December-January or February) at subdivision level over NWI is excess (deficit); then, the probability of occurrence of seasonal excess (deficit) precipitation is high (almost nil). When antecedent-monthly precipitation is a deficit or excess, the probability of monthly (January or February or January + February) precipitation to be a normal category is >60% over all the subdivisions. This study concludes that the December precipitation is a good indicator to estimate the performance of January, February, January-February, and the seasonal (DJF) precipitation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The winter precipitation (December-February) over northwest India (NWI) is highly variable in terms of time and space. The maximum precipitation occurs over the Himalaya region and decreases towards south of NWI. The winter precipitation is important for water resources and agriculture sectors over the region and for the economy of the country. It is an exigent task to the scientific community to provide a seasonal outlook for the regional scale precipitation. The oceanic heat fluxes are known to have a strong linkage with the ocean and atmosphere. Henceforth, in this study, we obtained the relationship of NWI winter precipitation with total downward ocean heat fluxes at the global ocean surface, 15 regions with significant correlations are identified from August to November at 90 % confidence level. These strong relations encourage developing an empirical model for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. The multiple linear regression (MLR) and principal component regression (PCR) models are developed and evaluated using leave-one-out cross-validation. The developed regression models are able to predict the winter precipitation patterns over NWI with significant (99 % confidence level) index of agreement and correlations. Moreover, these models capture the signals of extremes, but could not reach the peaks (excess and deficit) of the observations. PCR performs better than MLR for predicting winter precipitation over NWI. Therefore, the total downward ocean heat fluxes at surface from August to November are having a significant impact on seasonal winter precipitation over the NWI. It concludes that these interrelationships are more useful for the development of empirical models and feasible to predict the winter precipitation over NWI with sufficient lead-time (in advance) for various risk management sectors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A multiscale-modeling framework for daily rainfall is considered and diagnostic results are presented for an application to the winter season in Northwest India. The daily rainfall process is considered to follow a hidden Markov model (HMM), with the hidden states assumed to be an unknown random function of slowly varying climatic modulation of the winter jet stream and moisture transport dynamics. The data used are from 14 stations over Satluj River basin in winter (December-January-February-March). The period considered is 1977/78-2005/06. The HMM identifies four discrete weather states, which are used to describe daily rainfall variability over study region. Each state was found to be associated with a distinct atmospheric circulation pattern, with the driest and drier states, State 1 and 2 respectively, characterized by a lack of synoptic wave activity. In contrast, the wetter and wettest states, States 3 and 4 respectively, are characterized by a zonally oriented wave train extending across Eurasia between 20N and 40N, identified with 'western disturbances' (WD). The occurrence of State 4 is strongly conditioned by the El Nino and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomena in winter, which is demonstrated using large-scale correlation maps based on mean sea level pressure and sea surface temperature. This suggests that there is a tendency of higher frequency of the wet days and intense WD activities in winter during El Nino and positive IOD years. These findings, derived from daily rainfall station records, help clarify the sequence of Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude storms bringing winter rainfall over Northwest India, and their association with potentially predictable low frequency modes on seasonal time scales and longer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Northwestern parts of India receive considerable amount of precipitation during the winter months of December-March. Although, it is only about 15% of the annual precipitation, the precipitation is very important for rabi crops and to maintain the glaciers extend in the Himalaya, which melt and supply water to the rivers during other seasons. The precipitation is mainly associated with the sequence of synoptic systems known as 'western disturbances'. The precipitation has considerable spatial and temporal variability, with maximum precipitation occurring particularly over northern hilly regions, with decreasing influence southwards. The spatially coherent winter precipitation series has been prepared for the largest possible area comprising nine meteorological subdivisions of northwest India, which constitute about 32% of the total area of the country, having similar precipitation characteristics. The precipitation series has been statistically analysed to understand its characteristics and variability. The seasonal precipitation series is found to be homogeneous, Gaussian (normal) distributed and free from persistence. The precipitation variability has increased during the most recent three decades with more excess and deficient years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article explores the effect of convection over warm pool region of Indonesia on northwest India winter precipitation (NWIWP). It discusses the use of India Meteorological Department (IMD) records of station data to perform analysis of correlations and composites. According to the article, there is an out-of-phase relationship between convection over northwest India and warm pool region during the winter season.