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The relationship between sea-level pressure (SLP) and 1,000 hPa air temperature (AT) in winter is investigated over the northern hemisphere, and a statistical forecasting of one of the two parameters from the other is attempted on a monthly basis. Mean monthly SLP and 1,000 hPa level AT values at 563 grid points over the northern hemisphere are utilized for January, February and March, for the period 1949-2002. At first, factor analysis is applied to the data sets as a dimensionality reduction tool. Then, canonical correlation analysis is applied to the resultant factor scores time series for the five SLP-AT pairs: SLP(J)-AT(J), SLP(J)-AT(F), SLP(J)-AT(M), AT(J)-SLP(F) and AT(J)-SLP(M), and the synchronous and time-lag connections between the two parameters are investigated. The areas characterized by a satisfactory monthly or/and bi-monthly forecasting ability are detected. The most satisfactory results refer to the areas affected by the Southern Oscillation. It is found that the SLP teleconnection between the areas of the eastern and the western Pacific in January is related to the regime of AT in the central Pacific Ocean, in both February and March. Also, SLP over the Aleutian and Icelandic lows in January is related to AT over their southwestern and southeastern neighbouring areas in February and March. Finally, it appears that there is also ability for monthly/bi-monthly statistical prediction for some areas affected by the well-known oscillations of North Atlantic Oscillation and Pacific/North American Oscillation. A validation of the statistical prediction methodology is carried out, using real-time series of AT and SLP parameters for some characteristic cases. The results show that the statistical prediction presents a remarkable success. The success rate varies from 67% to 83% for the analysis period 1949-2002 and from 71% to 86% for the recent period 2003-2009. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We model the Penman potential evaporation (PE) over all land areas of the globe for the 25-yr period 1983-2008, relying on radiation transfer models (RTMs) for the shortwave and longwave fluxes. Penman's PE is determined by two factors: available energy for evaporation and ground to atmosphere vapour transfer. Input to the PE model and RTMs comprises satellite cloud and aerosol data, as well as data from reanalyses. PE is closely linked to pan evaporation, whose trends have sparked controversy in the community, since the factors responsible for the observed pan evaporation trends are not determined with consensus. Our particular interest is the temporal evolution of PE, and the provided insight to the observed trends of pan evaporation. We examine the decadal trends of PE and various related physical quantities, such as net solar flux, net longwave flux, water vapour saturation deficit and wind speed. Our findings are the following: Global warming has led to a larger water vapour saturation deficit. The periods 1983-1989, 1990-1999, and 2000-2008 were characterised by decreasing, increasing, and slightly decreasing PE, respectively. In these last 25 yr, global dimming/brightening cycles generally increased the available energy for evaporation. PE trends seem to follow more closely the trends of energy availability than the trends of the atmospheric capability for vapour transfer, at most locations on the globe, with trends in the Northern hemisphere significantly larger than in the Southern. These results support the hypothesis that global potential evaporation trends are attributed primarily to secular changes in the radiation fluxes, and secondarily to vapour transfer considerations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A global estimate of the seasonal direct radiative effect (DRE) of natural plus anthropogenic aerosols on solar radiation under all-sky conditions is obtained by combining satellite measurements and reanalysis data with a spectral radiative transfer model and spectral aerosol optical properties taken from the Global Aerosol Data Set (GADS). The estimates are obtained with detailed spectral model computations separating the ultraviolet (UV), visible and near-infrared wavelengths. The global distribution of spectral aerosol optical properties was taken from GADS whereas data for clouds, water vapour, ozone, carbon dioxide, methane and surface albedo were taken from various satellite and reanalysis datasets. Using these aerosol properties and other related variables, we generate climatological (for the 12-year period 1984-1995) monthly mean aerosol DREs. The global annual mean DRE on the outgoing SW radiation at the top of atmosphere (TOA, ΔFTOA) is -1.62Wm-2 (with a range of -15 to 10Wm-2, negative values corresponding to planetary cooling), the effect on the atmospheric absorption of SW radiation (ΔFatmab) is 1.6Wm-2 (values up to 35Wm-2, corresponding to atmospheric warming), and the effect on the surface downward and absorbed SW radiation (ΔFsurf, and ΔFsurfnet, respectively) is -3.93 and -3.22Wm-2 (values up to -45 and -35Wm-2, respectively, corresponding to surface cooling). According to our results, aerosols decrease/increase the planetary albedo by -3 to 13% at the local scale, whereas on planetary scale the result is an increase of 1.5%. Aerosols can warm locally the atmosphere by up to 0.98K day-1, whereas they can cool the Earth's surface by up to -2.9K day-1. Both these effects, which can significantly modify atmospheric dynamics and the hydrological cycle, can produce significant planetary cooling on a regional scale, although planetary warming can arise over highly reflecting surfaces. The aerosol DRE at the Earth's surface compared to TOA can be up to 15 times larger at the local scale. The largest aerosol DRE takes place in the northern hemisphere both at the surface and the atmosphere, arising mainly at ultraviolet and visible wavelengths. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]