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The rapid warming in the mid-1990s in the North Atlantic Ocean is investigated by means of an eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis. Both the mean state and variability, including the mid-1990s warming event, are well captured by the reanalysis. An ocean heat budget applied to the subpolar gyre (SPG) region (50°-66°N, 60°-10°W) shows that the 1995-99 rapid warming is primarily dictated by changes in the heat transport convergence term while the surface heat fluxes appear to play a minor role. The mean negative temperature increment suggests a warm bias in the model and data assimilation corrects the mean state of the model, but it is not crucial to reconstruct the time variability of the upper-ocean temperature. The decomposition of the heat transport across the southern edge of the SPG into time-mean and time-varying components shows that the SPG warming is mainly associated with both the anomalous advection of mean temperature and the mean advection of temperature anomalies across the 50°N zonal section. The relative contributions of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and gyre circulation to the heat transport are also analyzed. It is shown that both the overturning and gyre components are relevant to the mid-1990s warming. In particular, the fast adjustment of the barotropic circulation response to the NAO drives the anomalous transport of mean temperature at the subtropical/subpolar boundary, while the slowly evolving AMOC feeds the large-scale advection of thermal anomalies across 50°N. The persistently positive phase of the NAO during the years prior to the rapid warming likely favored the cross-gyre heat transfer and the following SPG warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The meridional overturning circulation (MOC) can be considered to consist of a downwelling limb in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and an upwelling limb in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) that are connected via western boundary currents. Steady-state analytical gyre-scale solutions of the planetary geostrophic equations are derived for a downwelling limb driven in the NH solely by surface heat loss. In these solutions the rates of the water mass transformations between layers driven by the surface heat loss determine the strength of the downwelling limb. Simple expressions are obtained for these transformation rates that depend on the most southerly latitudes where heat loss occurs and the depths of the isopycnals on the eastern boundary. Previously derived expressions for the water mass transformation rates in subpolar gyres driven by the Ekman upwelling characteristic of the SH are also summarized. Explicit expressions for the MOC transport and the depths of isopycnals on the eastern boundary are then derived by equating the water mass transformations in the upwelling and downwelling limbs. The MOC obtained for a 'single-basin' two-layer model is shown to be generally consistent with that obtained by Gnanadesikan. The model's energetics are derived and discussed. In a world without a circumpolar channel in the SH, it is suggested that the upwelling limb would feed downwelling limbs in both hemispheres. In a world with two basins in the NH, if one of them has a strong halocline the model suggests that the MOC would be very weak in that basin. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Atlantic Ocean subpolar gyre (NA SPG) is an important region for initializing decadal climate forecasts. Climate model simulations and paleoclimate reconstructions have indicated that this region could also exhibit large, internally generated variability on decadal time scales. Understanding these modes of variability, their consistency across models, and the conditions in which they exist is clearly important for improving the skill of decadal predictions-particularly when these predictions are made with the same underlying climate models. This study describes and analyzes a mode of internal variability in the NA SPG in a state-of-the-art, high-resolution, coupled climate model. This mode has a period of 17 yr and explains 15%-30% of the annual variance in related ocean indices. It arises because of the advection of heat content anomalies around the NA SPG. Anomalous circulation drives the variability in the southern half of the NA SPG, while mean circulation and anomalous temperatures are important in the northern half. A negative feedback between Labrador Sea temperatures/densities and those in the North Atlantic Current (NAC) is identified, which allows for the phase reversal. The atmosphere is found to act as a positive feedback on this mode via the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which itself exhibits a spectral peak at 17 yr. Decadal ocean density changes associated with this mode are driven by variations in temperature rather than salinity-a point which models often disagree on and which may affect the veracity of the underlying assumptions of anomaly-assimilating decadal prediction methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A weakly damped mode of variability, corresponding to the oceanic signature of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) was found through the linear stability analysis of a realistic ocean general circulation model. A simple two-level model was proposed to rationalize both its period and damping rate. This model is extended here to three levels to investigate how the mode can draw energy from the mean flow, as found in various ocean and coupled models. A linear stability analysis in this three-level model shows that the positive growth rate of the oscillatory mode depends on the zonally averaged isopycnal slope. This mode corresponds to a westward propagation of density anomalies in the pycnocline, typical of large-scale baroclinic Rossby waves. The most unstable mode corresponds to the largest scale one (at least for low isopycnal slope). The mode can be described in four phases composing a full oscillation cycle: 1) basin-scale warming of the North Atlantic (AMO positive phase), 2) decrease in upper-ocean poleward transport [hence a reduction of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC)], 3) basin-scale cooling (negative AMO), and 4) AMOC intensification. A criterion is developed to test, in oceanic datasets or numerical models, whether this multidecadal oscillation is an unstable oceanic internal mode of variability or if it is stable and externally forced. Consistent with the classical theory of baroclinic instability, this criterion depends on the vertical structure of the mode. If the upper pycnocline signature is in advance of the deeper pycnocline signature with respect to the westward propagation, the mode is unstable and could be described as an oceanic internal mode of variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) is characterized by the sea surface warming (cooling) of the entire North Atlantic during its warm (cold) phase. Both observations and most of the phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models also show that the warm (cold) phase of the AMO is associated with a surface warming (cooling) and a subsurface cooling (warming) in the tropical North Atlantic (TNA). It is further shown that the warm phase of the AMO corresponds to a strengthening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and a weakening of the Atlantic subtropical cell (STC), which both induce an anomalous northward current in the TNA subsurface ocean. Because the mean meridional temperature gradient of the subsurface ocean is positive because of the temperature dome around 9°N, the advection by the anomalous northward current cools the TNA subsurface ocean during the warm phase of the AMO. The opposite is true during the cold phase of the AMO. It is concluded that the anticorrelated ocean temperature variation in the TNA associated with the AMO is caused by the meridional current variation induced by variability of the AMOC and STC, but the AMOC plays a more important role than the STC. Observations do not seem to show an obvious anticorrelated salinity relation between the TNA surface and subsurface oceans, but most of CMIP5 models simulate an out-of-phase salinity variation. Similar to the temperature variation, the mechanism is the salinity advection by the meridional current variation induced by the AMOC and STC associated with the AMO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to understand potential predictability of the ocean and climate at the decadal time scales, it is crucial to improve our understanding of internal variability at this time scale. Here, we describe a 20-year mode of variability found in the North Atlantic in a 1,000-year pre-industrial simulation of the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model. This mode involves the propagation of near-surface temperature and salinity anomalies along the southern branch of the subpolar gyre, leading to anomalous sea-ice melting in the Nordic Seas, which then forces sea-level pressure anomalies through anomalous surface atmospheric temperatures. The wind stress associated to this atmospheric structure influences the strength of the East Greenland Current across the Denmark Strait, which, in turn, induces near-surface temperature and salinity anomalies of opposite sign at the entrance of the Labrador Sea. This starts the second half of the cycle after approximatively 10 years. The time scale of the cycle is thus essentially set by advection of tracers along the southern branch of the subpolar gyre, and by the time needed for anomalous East Greenland Current to accumulate heat and freshwater anomalies at the entrance of the Labrador Sea. The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) does not play a dominant role in the mode that is confined in the subpolar North Atlantic, but it also has a 20-year preferred timescale. This is due to the influence of the propagating salinity anomalies on the oceanic deep convection. The existence of this preferred timescale has important implications in terms of potential predictability of the North Atlantic climate in the model, although its realism remains questionable and is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A quantitative theoretical model of the meridional overturning circulation and associated deep stratification in an interhemispheric, single-basin ocean with a circumpolar channel is presented. The theory includes the effects of wind, eddies, and diapycnal mixing and predicts the deep stratification and overturning streamfunction in terms of the surface forcing and other parameters of the problem. It relies on a matching among three regions: the circumpolar channel at high southern latitudes, a region of isopycnal outcrop at high northern latitudes, and the ocean basin between. The theory describes both the middepth and abyssal cells of a circulation representing North Atlantic Deep Water and Antarctic Bottom Water. It suggests that, although the strength of the middepth overturning cell is primarily set by the wind stress in the circumpolar channel, middepth stratification results from a balance between the wind-driven upwelling in the channel and deep-water formation at high northern latitudes. Diapycnal mixing in the ocean interior can lead to warming and upwelling of deep waters. However, for parameters most representative of the present ocean mixing seems to play a minor role for the middepth cell. In contrast, the abyssal cell is intrinsically diabatic and controlled by a balance between the deep mixing-driven upwelling and the residual of the wind-driven and eddy-induced circulations in the Southern Ocean. The theory makes explicit predictions about how the stratification and overturning circulation vary with the wind strength, diapycnal diffusivity, and mesoscale eddy effects. The predictions compare well with numerical results from a coarse-resolution general circulation model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the mid-1990s, the subpolar gyre of the North Atlantic underwent a remarkable rapid warming, with sea surface temperatures increasing by around 1°C in just 2 yr. This rapid warming followed a prolonged positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) but also coincided with an unusually negative NAO index in the winter of 1995/96. By comparing ocean analyses and carefully designed model experiments, it is shown that this rapid warming can be understood as a delayed response to the prolonged positive phase of the NAO and not simply an instantaneous response to the negative NAO index of 1995/96. Furthermore, it is inferred that the warming was partly caused by a surge and subsequent decline in the meridional overturning circulation and northward heat transport of the Atlantic Ocean. These results provide persuasive evidence of significant oceanic memory on multiannual time scales and are therefore encouraging for the prospects of developing skillful predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The global Thermohaline Circulation (THC) is primarily driven by the cooling and sinking of northward flowing North Atlantic surface waters in the Nordic Seas to form North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) that flows southward as a component of the Deep Western Boundary Current (DWBC). It is widely accepted that major freshwater injections have disrupted the formation of NADW in the past, causing widespread cooling over the North Atlantic. Eirik Drift, a contourite south of Greenland, was formed from deposition of sediments carried in the DWBC, so contains information about DWBC variability. Before now, the spatial and temporal variability of the surface and deep water currents, and their relationship with the associated sedimentation have not been fully understood. Here, we present a review of the key findings from the RAPID Cape Farewell project at Eirik Drift, a multi-disciplinary study which included hydrographic profiles, sub-bottom and sea-floor geophysical data, and multi-proxy analyses of a marine sediment core. We use these previously published results to further elucidate the oceanographic processes above Eirik Drift and relate these results to the sedimentation patterns. We also resolve, using a down-core record of NADW flow intensity, how bottom currents in this region changed in association with freshwater forcing during the last deglaciation. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The Faroe Bank Channel is the deepest connection through the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, where dense water formed north of the ridge flows southward over the sill crest, contributing to the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. The overflow region is characterized by high mesoscale variability and energetic oscillations, accompanied by a high degree of sea surface level variability. Here, 2-month-long time series of velocity and temperature from 12 moorings deployed in May 2008 are analyzed to describe the oscillations and explore their generation and propagation. The observed 2.5-5-day oscillations in velocity and temperature are highly coherent both horizontally and vertically, and they are associated with 100-200-m-thick boluses of cold plume water flowing along the slope. A positive correlation between temperature and relative vorticity and the distribution of clockwise/counterclockwise rotation across the slope suggest a train of alternating warm cyclonic and cold anticyclonic eddies, where the maximum plume thickness is located downslope of the eddy center. The along-slope phase velocity is found to be 25-60 cm s−1, corresponding to a wavelength of 75-180 km, while the vertical phase propagation is downward. The oscillations are present already in the sill region. The observations do not match predictions for eddies generated either by vortex stretching or baroclinic instability but agree broadly with properties of topographic Rossby waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Faroe Bank Channel is the deepest connection through the Greenland-Scotland Ridge, where dense water formed north of the ridge flows southward over the sill crest, contributing to the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. The overflow region is characterized by high mesoscale variability and energetic oscillations, accompanied by a high degree of sea surface level variability. Here, 2-month-long time series of velocity and temperature from 12 moorings deployed in May 2008 are analyzed to describe the oscillations and explore their generation and propagation. The observed 2.5-5-day oscillations in velocity and temperature are highly coherent both horizontally and vertically, and they are associated with 100-200-m-thick boluses of cold plume water flowing along the slope. A positive correlation between temperature and relative vorticity and the distribution of clockwise/counterclockwise rotation across the slope suggest a train of alternating warm cyclonic and cold anticyclonic eddies, where the maximum plume thickness is located downslope of the eddy center. The along-slope phase velocity is found to be 25-60 cm s−1, corresponding to a wavelength of 75-180 km, while the vertical phase propagation is downward. The oscillations are present already in the sill region. The observations do not match predictions for eddies generated either by vortex stretching or baroclinic instability but agree broadly with properties of topographic Rossby waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Community Climate System Model version 3, (CCSM3) is used to investigate the effect of the high latitude North Atlantic subsurface ocean temperature response in idealized freshwater hosing experiments on the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). The hosing experiments covered a range of input magnitudes at two locations in a glacial background state. Subsurface subpolar ocean warms when freshwater is added to the high latitude North Atlantic (NATL cases) and weakly cools when freshwater is added to the Gulf of Mexico (GOM cases). All cases show subsurface ocean warming in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The sensitivity of the AMOC response to the location and magnitude of hosing is related to the induced subsurface temperature response, which affects the magnitude of the large-scale meridional pressure gradient at depth through the effect on upper ocean density. The high latitude subsurface warming induced in the NATL cases lowers the upper ocean density in the deepwater formation region enhancing a density reduction by local freshening. In the GOM cases the effect of SH warming partially offsets the effect of the high latitude freshening on the meridional density gradient. Following the end of hosing, a brief convective event occurs in the largest NATL cases which flushes some of the heat stored in the subsurface layers. This fuels a rapid rise in AMOC that lasts less than a couple of decades before subsequent freshening from increases in precipitation and sea ice melt reverses the initial increase in the meridional density gradient. Thereafter AMOC recovery slows to the rate found in comparable GOM cases. The result for these glacial transient hosing experiments is that the pace of the longer recovery is not sensitive to location of the imposed freshwater forcing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yucatan and Florida Currents represent the majority of the warm-water return path of the global thermohaline circulation through the tropical/subtropical North Atlantic Ocean. Their transports are quantified and compared by analyzing velocity data collected aboard the cruise ship Explorer of the Seas. From 157 crossings between May 2001 and May 2006, the mean transport of the Florida Current at 26°N was estimated to be 30.8 ± 3.2 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1), with seasonal amplitude of 2.9 Sv. Upstream, the Yucatan Current was estimated from 90 crossings to be 30.3 ± 5 Sv, with seasonal amplitude of 2.7 Sv. These two currents are shown to be linked at seasonal time scales. Hence, contrary to former results, it was found that transports through the Florida Straits and the Yucatan Channel are similar, with the implication that only small inflows occur through minor channels between them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The significance of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) for regional and hemispheric climate change requires a complete understanding using fully coupled climate models. Here we present a persistent, decadal oscillation in a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model. While the present study is limited by the lack of comparisons with paleo-proxy records, the purpose is to reveal a new theoretically interesting solution found in the fully-coupled climate model. The model exhibits two multi-century-long stable states with one dominated by decadal MOC oscillations. The oscillations involve an interaction between anomalous advective transport of salt and surface density in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Their time scale is fundamentally determined by the advection. In addition, there is a link between the MOC oscillations and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like sea level pressure anomalies. The analysis suggests an interaction between the NAO and an anomalous subpolar gyre circulation in which sea ice near and south of the Labrador Sea plays an important role in generating a large local thermal anomaly and a meridional temperature gradient. The latter induces a positive feedback via synoptic eddy activity in the atmosphere. In addition, the oscillation only appears when the Nordic Sea is completely covered by sea ice in winter, and deep convection is active only near the Irminger Sea. Such conditions are provided by a substantially colder North Atlantic climate than today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent intercomparison of the response of general circulation models (GCMs) to high-latitude freshwater forcing (Stouffer et al., J Climate 19(8):1365–1387, ), a number of the GCMs investigated showed a localised warming response in the high-latitude North Atlantic, as opposed to the cooling that the other models showed. We investigated the causes for this warming by testing the sensitivity of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC) to variations in freshwater forcing location, and then analysing in detail the causes of the warming. By analysing results from experiments with HadCM3, we are able to show that the high-latitude warming is independent of the exact location of the additional freshwater in the North Atlantic or Arctic Ocean basin. Instead, the addition of freshwater changes the circulation in the sub-polar gyre, which leads to enhanced advection of warm, saline, sub-surface water into the Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian Sea despite the overall slowdown of the MOC. This sub-surface water is brought to the surface by convection, where it leads to a strong warming of the surface waters and the overlying atmosphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A preindustrial climate experiment was conducted with the third version of the CNRM global atmosphere–ocean–sea ice coupled model (CNRM-CM3) for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4). This experiment is used to investigate the main physical processes involved in the variability of the North Atlantic ocean convection and the induced variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). Three ocean convection sites are simulated, in the Labrador, Irminger and Greenland–Iceland–Norwegian (GIN) Seas in agreement with observations. A mechanism linking the variability of the Arctic sea ice cover and convection in the GIN Seas is highlighted. Contrary to previous suggested mechanisms, in CNRM-CM3 the latter is not modulated by the variability of freshwater export through Fram Strait. Instead, the variability of convection is mainly driven by the variability of the sea ice edge position in the Greenland Sea. In this area, the surface freshwater balance is dominated by the freshwater input due to the melting of sea ice. The ice edge position is modulated either by northwestward geostrophic current anomalies or by an intensification of northerly winds. In the model, stronger than average northerly winds force simultaneous intense convective events in the Irminger and GIN Seas. Convection interacts with the thermohaline circulation on timescales of 5–10 years, which translates into MOC anomalies propagating southward from the convection sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying past circulation is a vital part of testing our understanding of the modern and future climate system. The isotopic composition of neodymium (Nd) in marine precipitates has considerable promise as a recorder of past circulation patterns, but its robust application requires knowledge of the end-member compositions in order to correctly deconvolute a downstream signal. We show here, using in situ, high temporal resolution analyses of ferromanganese crusts from the North Atlantic, that the Nd isotopic composition of deep water during times of much more extensive Northern Hemisphere ice cover was no different than the modern-day interglacial value. This result is surprising, but greatly simplifies the use of Nd isotopes as tracers of the strength and patterns of circulation in the Atlantic in the past. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Numerical models are used to estimate the meridional overturning and transports along the paths of two hydrographic cruises, carried out in 1997 and 2002 from Greenland to Portugal. We have examined the influence of the different paths of the two cruises and found that it could explain 0.4 to 2 Sv of difference in overturning (the precise value is model-dependent). Models show a decrease in the overturning circulation between 1997 and 2002, with different amplitudes. The CLIPPER ATL6 model reproduces well the observed weakening of the overturning in density coordinates between the cruises; in the model, the change is due to the combination of interannual and high-frequency forcing and internal variability associated with eddies and meanders. Examination of the $$z$$ -coordinate overturning reveals model–data discrepancies: the vertical structure in the models does not change as much as the observed one. The East Greenland current variability is mainly wind-forced in the ATL6 model, while fluctuations due to eddies and instabilities explain a large part of the North Atlantic Current variability. The time-residual transport of dense water and heat due to eddy correlations between currents and properties is small across this section, which is normal to the direction of the main current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article emphatically reviews the research progress in interconnections between the East Asian and Indian Ocean summer monsoons, between the Asian monsoon and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) activity, and between the monsoon, ENSO and the changing of the North Atlantic climate during the Holocene. According to the studies of recent years, it is found that the intensity variations of the East Asian and Indian Ocean summer monsoons show an opposite relationship, which may be closely related to the phenomena of ENSO in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the variation of the deep-water formation of the North Atlantic Ocean on the interannual to orbital time scales. The 4k and 8k events occurring at around 4200 and 8200 a BP, respectively, might be the two in a series of severe paleo-El Niño events during the Holocene, strongly reflecting the interactions and influences of the monsoons, ENSO and the North Atlantic climate. In order to better understand the relationships between these paleoclimatic phenomena, scientists need to strengthen the research work on the Asian monsoon division and the comparison between monsoon proxy records, and the study on the proxy record of sea surface temperature with high time-resolution in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and the simulation research of paleoclimate condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Changes in benthic foraminifera δ 18O and δ 13C have been followed over the last deglaciation period in seven sediment cores from different water depths in the North Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean. The two periods of most rapid δ 18O changes, at about 17 and 12 ka, are recorded in all intermediate water cores simultaneously with the penetration of brines formed along the polar ice shelves, exhibiting low δ 18O and δ 13C signatures. At the opposite, exchanges between intermediate and deep waters were slow. But here again, Atlantic and Pacific deep waters were affected simultaneously. These results would give a major role to convection around Antarctica a major role in deep circulation during these periods. To cite this article: L. Labeyrie et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

There has been a number of investigations for the correlation between the Asia monsoon and the North Atlantic climate for the last glacial; however, little research has been done for the present interglacial, the Holocene. Here we present for the first time a high-resolution composite proxy record for the Indian Ocean summer monsoon spanning around 12 000 years based on the δ13C time series of both a single plant species (Carex mulieensis) remains cellulose and the total plant assemblage cellulose in the Hongyuan peat bog from the Tibet Plateau. The records show that the strength of the Indian Ocean summer monsoon had abrupt variations during the last 12 000 years. The weakest monsoon occurred in the Younger Dryas period. Following rapid strengthening from around 11 200 to 10 800 a BP the monsoon kept a generally strong level for around 5300 years. From around 5500 a BP onwards the monsoon strength tended to gradual decrease. In addition, there are a series of abrupt variation events of the monsoon strength on centennial to millennial time scales, which superimpose the general tendency of the monsoon variation. In every case when the ice-rafted debris events in the North Atlantic occurred, the summer monsoon strength decreased correspondingly. These evidences show that teleconnection between the Indian Ocean summer monsoon and the North Atlantic climate is present not only in the last glacial but also in the Holocene, which may be linked to abrupt reorganizations of the ocean thermohaline circulation, leading to redistribution of energy, changing temperature and moisture gradient over the southern subtropical Indian Ocean, and eventually controlling the variability of the Indian Ocean summer monsoon. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The aim of this paper is to present a modeling framework for deriving emissions corridors that preserve the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC). The framework consists of a multi-gas reduced-form climate model coupled to a four-box THC model and allows for the main physical uncertainties (i.e., climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivity) to be taken into account. The emissions corridors are calculated along the conceptual and methodological lines of the tolerable windows approach (TWA). The corridor boundaries demarcate emissions limits for the 21st century beyond which either the THC collapses or the mitigation burden becomes intolerable. Accordingly, the corridors represent the maneuvering space for climate policies committed to preserve the THC without endangering future economic growth. Results indicate a large dependence of the width of the emissions corridors on climate and North Atlantic hydrological sensitivity: for low values of climate and/or hydrological sensitivity the upper corridor boundary is far from being transgressed by any of the SRES emissions scenario for the 21st century, while for high values of both quantities even low non-intervention scenarios leave the corridor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]