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Spurious mountain-wave features have been reported as false alarms of light-or-stronger numerical weather prediction (NWP)-based cruise level turbulence forecasts especially over the western mountainous region of North America. To reduce this problem, a hybrid sigma–pressure vertical coordinate system was implemented in NOAA's operational Rapid Refresh model, version 4 (RAPv4), which has been running in parallel with the conventional terrain-following coordinate system of RAP version 3 (RAPv3). Direct comparison of vertical velocity |w| fields from the RAPv4 and RAPv3 models shows that the new RAPv4 model significantly reduces small-scale spurious vertical velocities induced by the conventional terrain-following coordinate system in the RAPv3. For aircraft-scale turbulence forecasts, |w| and |w|/Richardson number (|w|/Ri) derived from both the RAPv4 and RAPv3 models are converted into energy dissipation rate (EDR) estimates. Then, those EDR-scaled indices are evaluated using more than 1.2 million in situ EDR turbulence reports from commercial aircraft for 4 months (September–December 2017). Scores of the area under receiver operating characteristic curves for the |w|- and |w|/Ri-based EDR forecasts from the RAPv4 are 0.69 and 0.83, which is statistically significantly improved over the RAPv3 of 0.63 and 0.77, respectively. The new RAPv4 became operational on 12 July 2018 and provides better guidance for operational turbulence forecasting over North America. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mechanisms supporting a cold-season aviation turbulence outbreak over the northwest Atlantic Ocean and adjacent coastal regions of North America are investigated using high-resolution numerical simulations. Two distinct episodes of moderate-or-greater turbulence in the upper troposphere are observed, and the simulations suggest the turbulence is linked to eastward-translating mesoscale perturbations of negative potential vorticity (PV) emanating from upstream organized deep convection along the anticyclonic shear side of an upper-level jet. Within the exit region of the jet where the turbulence episodes occur, thermodynamic and kinematic fields in the vicinity of the PV perturbations exhibit structural characteristics of mesoscale inertia-gravity waves. These wavelike perturbations are shown to facilitate turbulence by influencing the vertical shear and static stability, which promotes mesoscale regions of banded cirrus clouds, near or within which the observed turbulence occurs. The simulations also suggest that the turbulence arises from fundamentally different mechanisms in the two episodes. In the first and most severe turbulence episode, mesoscale wave-related vertical shear enhancements lead to Kelvin-Helmholtz instability (KHI) near aircraft cruising altitudes (~8.9-11.2 km MSL). Simulated KHI is most prevalent near relatively isolated areas of shallow, moist convection, where smaller-scale internal gravity waves originating in the middle troposphere in response to the shallow convection may play a role in excitation of the KHI located above. The second turbulence episode is consistent with simulated thermal-shear instability related to wave-induced mesoscale reductions in upper-tropospheric static stability. However, unlike for the earlier episode of enhanced turbulence, cloud-radiative feedbacks are necessary for the instability and mesoscale regions of banded cirrus to develop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]