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Background: Inflammatory bowel disease is a global disease in the 21st century. We aimed to assess the changing incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease around the world.Methods: We searched MEDLINE and Embase up to and including Dec 31, 2016, to identify observational, population-based studies reporting the incidence or prevalence of Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis from 1990 or later. A study was regarded as population-based if it involved all residents within a specific area and the patients were representative of that area. To be included in the systematic review, ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease needed to be reported separately. Studies that did not report original data and studies that reported only the incidence or prevalence of paediatric-onset inflammatory bowel disease (diagnosis at age <16 years) were excluded. We created choropleth maps for the incidence (119 studies) and prevalence (69 studies) of Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis. We used temporal trend analyses to report changes as an annual percentage change (APC) with 95% CI.Findings: We identified 147 studies that were eligible for final inclusion in the systematic review, including 119 studies of incidence and 69 studies of prevalence. The highest reported prevalence values were in Europe (ulcerative colitis 505 per 100 000 in Norway; Crohn's disease 322 per 100 000 in Germany) and North America (ulcerative colitis 286 per 100 000 in the USA; Crohn's disease 319 per 100 000 in Canada). The prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease exceeded 0·3% in North America, Oceania, and many countries in Europe. Overall, 16 (72·7%) of 22 studies on Crohn's disease and 15 (83·3%) of 18 studies on ulcerative colitis reported stable or decreasing incidence of inflammatory bowel disease in North America and Europe. Since 1990, incidence has been rising in newly industrialised countries in Africa, Asia, and South America, including Brazil (APC for Crohn's disease +11·1% [95% CI 4·8-17·8] and APC for ulcerative colitis +14·9% [10·4-19·6]) and Taiwan (APC for Crohn's disease +4·0% [1·0-7·1] and APC for ulcerative colitis +4·8% [1·8-8·0]).Interpretation: At the turn of the 21st century, inflammatory bowel disease has become a global disease with accelerating incidence in newly industrialised countries whose societies have become more westernised. Although incidence is stabilising in western countries, burden remains high as prevalence surpasses 0·3%. These data highlight the need for research into prevention of inflammatory bowel disease and innovations in health-care systems to manage this complex and costly disease.Funding: None. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims: Altered host immune reactivity to microbial antigens is hypothesized to trigger the onset of Crohn's disease (CD). We aimed to assess whether increased serum anti-microbial antibody response in asymptomatic first-degree relatives (FDRs) of CD patients is an independent risk factor for future CD development., Methods: We measured host serum antibody response to 6 microbial antigens at enrollment (Prometheus enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay test: anti-Saccharomyces cerevisiae antibodies immunoglobulin A/immunoglobulin G, anti-OmpC, anti-A4-Fla2, anti-FlaX, anti-CBir1) and derived the sum of positive antibodies (AS). We used samples at enrollment of prospectively followed healthy FDRs from a nested case-control cohort of the Crohn's and Colitis Canada Genetics Environment Microbial Project. Those who later developed CD (n = 77) were matched 1:4 by age, sex, follow-up duration, and geographic location with control FDRs remaining healthy (n = 307). To address our research aims, we fitted a multivariable conditional logistic regression model and performed causal mediation analysis., Results: High baseline AS (≥2) (43% of cases, 11% of controls) was associated with higher risk of developing CD (adjusted odds ratio, 6.5; 95% confidence interval, 3.4-12.7; P < .001). Importantly, this association remained significant when adjusted for markers of gut barrier function, fecal calprotectin, C-reactive protein, and CD-polygenic risk score, and in subjects recruited more than 3 years before diagnosis. Causal mediation analysis showed that the effect of high AS on future CD development is partially mediated (42%) via preclinical gut inflammation., Conclusions: Our results suggest that increased anti-microbial antibody responses are associated with risk of future development of CD, independent of biomarkers of abnormal gut barrier function, subclinical inflammation, and CD-related genetic risks. This suggests that anti-microbial antibody responses are an early predisease event in the development of CD., (Copyright © 2021 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)