Search

1 The pea leafminer Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) (Diptera: Agromyzidae) is an invasive species in North America and a serious economic pest on a wide variety of crops. We developed a bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) for this species and examined the envelope's potential location in North America under various future climates. 2 We compared the future bioclimatic envelopes for L. huidobrensis using either simple scenarios comprising uniform changes in temperature/precipitation or climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs). Our simple scenarios were: (i) an increase of 0.1°C per degree in latitude with a 20% increase in summer precipitation and a 20% decrease in winter precipitation and (ii) an overall increase of 3°C everywhere, also with the same changes in precipitation. For GCM-modelled climate change, we used the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre climate model (HadCM3), each in combination with two scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (A2 and B2). 3 The BEM results using the simple scenarios were more similar to each other than to the results obtained using GCM projections. The results were also qualitatively different (i.e. spatially different and divergent) depending on which GCM-scenario combination was used. 4 This modelling exercise illustrates that: (i) results using first approximation simple climate change scenarios can give predictions very different from those that use GCM-modelled climate projections (comprising a result that has worrying implications for empirical impact research) and that (ii) different GCM-models using the same scenario can give very different results (implying strong model dependency in projected biological impacts). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Drosophila suzukii is a relatively new threat to the soft-skinned fruit industry in North America. The presence of this pest in North America is a concern and assessing the risk of potential infestation and damage can help guide regional management strategies. We have developed a continuous time stage structured population model parameterized with empirical data based on laboratory observations. The principle environmental driver of vital rates (mortality, fecundity and development) for the model is temperature though our results suggest that reproductive diapause and quality of fruit available to the population may also have significant effect on population size. The model was run with several generalized temperature profiles and various observed temperature data sets for locations known to be important for berry production. While southern regions appear to be most suitable for supporting high population densities due to warm temperatures throughout the year, northern regions with moderate temperatures may also be susceptible due to a lack of extreme cold or heat, both of which limit development and increase mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Grazing and fire are disturbances integral to the evolution and maintenance of savanna grasslands. Humans are altering or completely eliminating these disturbance regimes at a global scale, with important consequences for savanna ecosystem structure and function. It is unknown whether the alteration of these disturbance regimes will have similar effects on grass communities of savanna grasslands in different geographic regions that vary in their biogeographic and evolutionary histories, as well as in the diversity of extant grazers., Here, we examined the effects of large herbivore loss on different aspects of grass community structure - taxonomic, phylogenetic and functional - across a range of fire frequencies in C4-dominated mesic savanna grassland sites of North America (Konza Prairie Biological Station, Kansas, USA) and South Africa (Kruger National Park). The goal of the study was to determine whether the loss of large herbivores exerted a consistent effect on the grass communities of two physiognomically similar grasslands with different biogeographic and grazing histories., The removal of large herbivores resulted in divergent responses in the grass communities at Konza and Kruger that was consistent across fire treatments. At Konza, there was a rapid and significant response to grazing exclusion while the response was muted and transient at Kruger. Functional syndromes associated with grazing resistance were generally conserved across sites, and it was the functional strategies of the dominant species at each site that drove the divergent responses. Further, our study supports the hypothesis that grazing and aridity may be selective forces that act in parallel as those species that were grazing resistant also occupied drier niches., Synthesis. Our study demonstrates that savanna grassland communities with different biogeographic and grazing histories respond differently to the removal of large herbivores and that climate, fire and grazing are interactive forces in maintaining savanna grassland diversity and function. We show that the functional attributes of the dominant grasses, which are in part driven by the biogeographic and grazing history experienced, are the most relevant in predicting the response of savanna ecosystems to the loss of large herbivores. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of ‘very favourable’ regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]