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Background: Although paediatric astrocytoma has an excellent 5-year survival rate, survivors remain at risk for morbidity and late mortality. This study aimed to estimate the risk of late mortality, chronic conditions, poor health status and social impairment in ageing paediatric astrocytoma survivors., Methods: We longitudinally evaluated 1182 5-year astrocytoma survivors diagnosed between 1970 and 1986 and 4023 siblings enrolled in a retrospective cohort study. Kaplan-Meier estimates of late mortality and cumulative incidence of serious chronic conditions were estimated. Cox regression models provided hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for development of chronic conditions, and generalised linear models provided relative risks (RRs) of the poor health status and social outcomes., Results: At 30 years from diagnosis, cumulative late mortality was 22.1% (CI 20.0-24.3%), primarily due to disease progression or recurrence. Compared with siblings, survivors were at increased risk of serious chronic conditions (HR 4.6, CI 3.8-5.5). Survivors reported higher rates of poor general health (RR 3.3, CI 2.8-3.8), poor mental health (RR 1.9, CI 1.7-2.1), functional impairment (RR 9.0, CI 7.7-10.5) and activity limitation (RR 3.6, CI 3.1-4.2) and lower rates of college graduation (RR 0.75, CI 0.69-0.82), marriage (RR 0.62, CI 0.58-0.66), employment (RR 0.75, CI 0.72-0.79) and household income ≥$40,000 (RR 0.68, CI 0.64-0.73). Even survivors without radiation exposure had elevated risk of chronic conditions, poor health status and social impairment compared with siblings., Conclusions: Survivors of paediatric astrocytoma are at high risk for long-term complications of their disease and its treatment. They require lifelong monitoring for late effects., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Purpose We aimed to predict individual risk of ischemic heart disease and stroke in 5-year survivors of childhood cancer. Patients and Methods Participants in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS; n = 13,060) were observed through age 50 years for the development of ischemic heart disease and stroke. Siblings (n = 4,023) established the baseline population risk. Piecewise exponential models with backward selection estimated the relationships between potential predictors and each outcome. The St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study (n = 1,842) and the Emma Children's Hospital cohort (n = 1,362) were used to validate the CCSS models. Results Ischemic heart disease and stroke occurred in 265 and 295 CCSS participants, respectively. Risk scores based on a standard prediction model that included sex, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy (cranial, neck, and chest) exposures achieved an area under the curve and concordance statistic of 0.70 and 0.70 for ischemic heart disease and 0.63 and 0.66 for stroke, respectively. Validation cohort area under the curve and concordance statistics ranged from 0.66 to 0.67 for ischemic heart disease and 0.68 to 0.72 for stroke. Risk scores were collapsed to form statistically distinct low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups. The cumulative incidences at age 50 years among CCSS low-risk groups were < 5%, compared with approximately 20% for high-risk groups ( P < .001); cumulative incidence was only 1% for siblings ( P < .001 v low-risk survivors). Conclusion Information available to clinicians soon after completion of childhood cancer therapy can predict individual risk for subsequent ischemic heart disease and stroke with reasonable accuracy and discrimination through age 50 years. These models provide a framework on which to base future screening strategies and interventions.

Purpose: To create clinically useful models that incorporate readily available demographic and cancer treatment characteristics to predict individual risk of heart failure among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer., Patients and Methods: Survivors in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) free of significant cardiovascular disease 5 years after cancer diagnosis (n = 13,060) were observed through age 40 years for the development of heart failure (ie, requiring medications or heart transplantation or leading to death). Siblings (n = 4,023) established the baseline population risk. An additional 3,421 survivors from Emma Children's Hospital (Amsterdam, the Netherlands), the National Wilms Tumor Study, and the St Jude Lifetime Cohort Study were used to validate the CCSS prediction models., Results: Heart failure occurred in 285 CCSS participants. Risk scores based on selected exposures (sex, age at cancer diagnosis, and anthracycline and chest radiotherapy doses) achieved an area under the curve of 0.74 and concordance statistic of 0.76 at or through age 40 years. Validation cohort estimates ranged from 0.68 to 0.82. Risk scores were collapsed to form statistically distinct low-, moderate-, and high-risk groups, corresponding to cumulative incidences of heart failure at age 40 years of 0.5% (95% CI, 0.2% to 0.8%), 2.4% (95% CI, 1.8% to 3.0%), and 11.7% (95% CI, 8.8% to 14.5%), respectively. In comparison, siblings had a cumulative incidence of 0.3% (95% CI, 0.1% to 0.5%)., Conclusion: Using information available to clinicians soon after completion of childhood cancer therapy, individual risk for subsequent heart failure can be predicted with reasonable accuracy and discrimination. These validated models provide a framework on which to base future screening strategies and interventions., (© 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.)