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The article presents a study on the estimation of the probability of introduction and establishment in alien species that depends on the shipping time. The study relates the risk estimation of biological invasion of Asian gypsy moth Lymantria dispar (L.) in North America and New Zealand using a two-dimensional phenology gypsy moth life stage model (GLS-2d) in various marine trade routes. Results show that probabilities depend on the departure and length of time of invasion vectors like ships.

Discusses the carotenoid-derive plumage coloration and sexual dichromatism in North American passerine birds. Analysis by independent contrasts and simulation methods; Relation between melanin and dichromatism; Sources of carotenoids.

Abstract: The spruce beetle, Dendroctonus rufipennis (Kirby), is an important mortality agent of native spruces throughout North America. The life-cycle duration of this species varies from 1 to 3years depending temperature. The univoltine cycle (one generation per year) is thought to maximize outbreak risk and accelerate host mortality in established outbreaks. Prepupal diapause is associated with the semivoltine cycle (one generation per 2years) and we investigated thermal conditions that result in diapause induction. Preliminary experiments used respirometry in an attempt to distinguish the diapause state of experimental insects but the technique was apparently confounded by low respiration before and during pupation, regardless of diapause status. Therefore, diapause induction was deduced using developmental delays. The observed developmental response was not a “switch”, with developmental delay either present or absent, but instead varied continuously. We found that temperatures <15°C from instar III through mid-instar IV were associated with developmental delays beyond that expected from cool temperatures. Moreover, the duration of exposure to cool temperatures was important in determining the degree of developmental delay. Small, if any, delays were observed if the cumulative exposure to <15°C was <20d whereas >40d cumulative exposure was associated with distinct developmental suppression. Intermediate exposure to cool temperatures resulted in minor developmental delays. We used our results to parameterize a maximum likelihood estimation model of temperature-dependent instar IV developmental rates, including the effect of diapause. This model can be included as part of a spruce beetle phenology model for predicting population dynamics. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Phenology models are useful tools in pest management interventions, biosecurity operations targeting alien invaders, and answering questions regarding the potential for range expansion/shift. The Gypsy Moth Life Stage model (GLS) has been used to predict the invasive range of the North American gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar dispar Linnaeus [Lepidoptera: Erebidae]) in North America and New Zealand. It has been used to examine the role of supra-optimal temperatures in range expansion/stasis/retraction. However, GLS has also been used where the target organism is the Asian subspecies L. d. asiatica Vnukovskij, despite observed differences between the predominant phenotypes of the two subspecies in the temperature requirements for egg hatch and the absence of egg phenology model parameters specific to the Asian phenotype. Here we describe the results of temperature and exposure duration on the timing of Asian gypsy moth egg hatch, and we present phenology model parameters for the Asian phenotype. Sum of squared differences (observed minus predicted day of median egg hatch) was reduced from 7,818 d2 (North American parameters) to 178 d2. Days of simulated median egg hatch differed from the observed days by 0-7 d (x¯=0.2; SD=3.1). The pattern of simulated egg hatch closely mimicked the irregular pattern of observed egg hatch from the temperature regimes of our experiment. Egg hatch is arguably the most important life cycle event in gypsy moth population suppression/eradication interventions and in estimating their potential invasive range. The model parameters described here produce accurate predictions of Asian gypsy moth egg hatch., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Entomological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)