Search

Background: Recent guidelines recommend the Lynch Syndrome prediction models MMRPredict, MMRPro, and PREMM1,2,6 for the identification of MMR gene mutation carriers. We compared the predictive performance and clinical usefulness of these prediction models to identify mutation carriers.Methods: Pedigree data from CRC patients in 11 North American, European, and Australian cohorts (6 clinic- and 5 population-based sites) were used to calculate predicted probabilities of pathogenic MLH1, MSH2, or MSH6 gene mutations by each model and gene-specific predictions by MMRPro and PREMM1,2,6. We examined discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration with observed to expected (O/E) ratio, and clinical usefulness using decision curve analysis to select patients for further evaluation. All statistical tests were two-sided.Results: Mutations were detected in 539 of 2304 (23%) individuals from the clinic-based cohorts (237 MLH1, 251 MSH2, 51 MSH6) and 150 of 3451 (4.4%) individuals from the population-based cohorts (47 MLH1, 71 MSH2, 32 MSH6). Discrimination was similar for clinic- and population-based cohorts: AUCs of 0.76 vs 0.77 for MMRPredict, 0.82 vs 0.85 for MMRPro, and 0.85 vs 0.88 for PREMM1,2,6. For clinic- and population-based cohorts, O/E deviated from 1 for MMRPredict (0.38 and 0.31, respectively) and MMRPro (0.62 and 0.36) but were more satisfactory for PREMM1,2,6 (1.0 and 0.70). MMRPro or PREMM1,2,6 predictions were clinically useful at thresholds of 5% or greater and in particular at greater than 15%.Conclusions: MMRPro and PREMM1,2,6 can well be used to select CRC patients from genetics clinics or population-based settings for tumor and/or germline testing at a 5% or higher risk. If no MMR deficiency is detected and risk exceeds 15%, we suggest considering additional genetic etiologies for the cause of cancer in the family. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We studied 2332 individuals with monoallelic mutations in MUTYH among 9504 relatives of 264 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases with a MUTYH mutation. We estimated CRC risks through 70 years of age of 7.2% for male carriers of monoallelic mutations (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.6%-11.3%) and 5.6% for female carriers of monoallelic mutations (95% CI, 3.6%-8.8%), irrespective of family history. For monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers with a first-degree relative with CRC diagnosed by 50 years of age who does not have the MUTYH mutation, risks of CRC were 12.5% for men (95% CI, 8.6%-17.7%) and 10% for women (95% CI, 6.7%-14.4%). Risks of CRC for carriers of monoallelic mutations in MUTYH with a first-degree relative with CRC are sufficiently high to warrant more intensive screening than for the general population., (Copyright © 2014 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)