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As one of the major water sources in Ningxia of China, it is of great importance to maintain healthy ecological environment of the Yellow River. In this essay, basin hydrological model is adopted to simulate the influences of prediction of climate changes on runoff in river basin, which is of great theoretical and realistic significance to flood and draught control plans as well as long-term exploitation and utilization of water resources in Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin of China. Based on analysis of the changing characteristics of major climates and hydrological features in Ningxia Section of Yellow River Basin of China, distributed hydrological model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) coupled with GIS is used in this study to simulate the yearly and monthly runoff volumes under 15 different climate changes, with the aim to explore the influences of climate changes to runoff. The results show that the runoff volume in the basin has negative correlation with the temperature but in positive correlation with the rainfall, and that the influence of the changes of rainfall in the basin on the runoff is greater than that of the temperature, which could provide basis for decision making of water resource management in Ningxia Section of the Yellow River Basin of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the Ningxia Section of the Yellow River Basin of China has become waterstressed due to the reduction of the upstream precipitation, to the serious water and soil loss in the midstream, to the increased water consumption in industrial and agricultural areas and to other reasons. To fully understand the runoff variation of the Yellow River in the Ningxia Section of China and to rationally carry out the water dispatching and the water resource management, the applicability of the SWAT model for water balance in this basin is explored. Based on the improved SWAT model, the distributed hydrological model of the Ningxia Section of the Yellow River Basin of China has been constructed. The meteorological and hydrological data of the Ningxia Section of the Yellow River Basin of China from 1990 to 2017 have been used for simulation. The relative error Re the correlation coefficient R² and Nash-Suttcliffe coefficient Ens have been used as the standards, while the sensitive parameter of the measured monthly runoff from 2005 to 2011 to the model used for the calibration, and the model have been validated by the measured monthly runoff from 2012 to 2017. The research results show that the simulation results basically meet the model evaluation requirements, indicating that the SWAT model is applicable to the runoff simulation of the Ningxia Section of the Yellow River Basin of China, and it can provide decision-making basis for water resource management in the Ningxia Section of the Yellow River Basin of China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]