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Regional climate models (RCMs) have been used to simulate rainfall at relatively high spatial and temporal resolutions useful for sustainable water resources planning, design and management. In this study, the sensitivity of the RCM, weather research and forecasting (WRF), in modeling the regional climate of the Nile River Basin (NRB) was investigated using 31 combinations of different physical parameterization schemes which include cumulus (Cu), microphysics (MP), planetary boundary layer (PBL), land-surface model (LSM) and radiation (Ra) schemes. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA-Interim reanalysis data as initial and lateral boundary conditions, WRF was configured to model the climate of NRB at a resolution of 36 km with 30 vertical levels. The 1999-2001 simulations using WRF were compared with satellite data combined with ground observation and the NCEP reanalysis data for 2 m surface air temperature (T2), rainfall, short- and longwave downward radiation at the surface (SWRAD, LWRAD). Overall, WRF simulated more accurate T2 and LWRAD (with correlation coefficients >0.8 and low root-mean-square error) than SWRAD and rainfall for the NRB. Further, the simulation of rainfall is more sensitive to PBL, Cu and MP schemes than other schemes of WRF. For example, WRF simulated less biased rainfall with Kain-Fritsch combined with MYJ than with YSU as the PBL scheme. The simulation of T2 is more sensitive to LSM and Ra than to Cu, PBL and MP schemes selected, SWRAD is more sensitive to MP and Ra than to Cu, LSM and PBL schemes, and LWRAD is more sensitive to LSM, Ra and PBL than Cu, and MP schemes. In summary, the following combination of schemes simulated the most representative regional climate of NRB: WSM3 microphysics, KF cumulus, MYJ PBL, RRTM longwave radiation and Dudhia shortwave radiation schemes, and Noah LSM. The above configuration of WRF coupled to the Noah LSM has also been shown to simulate representative regional climate of NRB over 1980-2001 which include a combination of wet and dry years of the NRB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary Evaluating the climate anomalies impacts on the Upper Blue Nile Basin (UBNB), Ethiopia, a large basin with scarce hydroclimatic data, through hydrologic modeling is a challenge. A fully distributed, physically-based model, a modified version of the Interactions Soil–Biosphere Atmosphere model of Météo France (MISBA), and a lumped, conceptual rainfall–runoff Sacramento model, SAC-SMA of the US National Weather Service, were used to simulate the streamflow of UBNB. To study the potential hydrologic effect of climate anomalies on the UBNB, rainfall and temperature data observed when climate anomalies were active, were resampled and used to drive MISBA and SAC-SMA. To obtain representative, distributed precipitation data in mountainous basins, it was found that a 3% adjustment factor for every 25 m rise in elevation was needed to orographically correct the rainfall over UBNB. The performance of MISBA applied to UBNB improved after MISBA was modified so that it could simulate evaporation loss from the canopy, providing coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) = 0.58, and root mean square error (RMSE) = 0.34 m 3 /s in comparison with the observed streamflow. In contrast, the performance of SAC-SMA at the calibration run and the validation run is better than that of MISBA, such that R 2 is 0.79 for calibration and 0.82 for validation even though it models the hydrology of UBNB in a lumped, conceptual framework as against the physically-based, fully distributed framework of MISBA. El Niño tends to decrease the June–September rainfall but increase the February–May rainfall, while La Niña has opposite effect on the rainfall of UBNB. Based on the simulations of MISBA and SAC-SMA for UBNB, La Niña and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) tend to have a wetting effect while El Niño has a drying effect on the streamflow of the UBNB. In addition, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD increase the streamflow variability more than changing the magnitude of streamflow. The results provide useful information on the effects of global oceanic anomalies on the hydrology of UBNB. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]