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Beginning in 2013, multiple local government areas (LGAs) in Borno and Yobe in northeast Nigeria and other parts of the Lake Chad basin experienced a violent insurgency that resulted in substantial numbers of isolated and displaced people. Northeast Nigeria represents the last known reservoir country of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission in Africa, with detection of paralytic cases caused by serotype 1 WPV in 2016 in Borno and serotype 3 WPV in late 2012. Parts of Borno and Yobe are also problematic areas for transmission of serotype 2 circulating vaccine‐derived polioviruses, and they continue to face challenges associated with conflict and inadequate health services in security‐compromised areas that limit both immunization and surveillance activities. We model poliovirus transmission of all three serotypes for Borno and Yobe using a deterministic differential equation‐based model that includes four subpopulations to account for limitations in access to immunization services and dynamic restrictions in population mixing. We find that accessibility issues and insufficient immunization allow for prolonged poliovirus transmission and potential undetected paralytic cases, although as of the end of 2019, including responsive program activities in the modeling suggest die out of indigenous serotypes 1 and 3 WPVs prior to 2020. Specifically, recent and current efforts to access isolated populations and provide oral poliovirus vaccine continue to reduce the risks of sustained and undetected transmission, although some uncertainty remains. Continued improvement in immunization and surveillance in the isolated subpopulations should minimize these risks. Stochastic modeling can build on this analysis to characterize the implications for undetected transmission and confidence about no circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most poliovirus infections occur with no symptoms and this leads to the possibility of silent circulation, which complicates the confirmation of global goals to permanently end poliovirus transmission. Previous simple models based on hypothetical populations assumed perfect detection of symptomatic cases and suggested the need to observe no paralytic cases from wild polioviruses (WPVs) for approximately 3-4 years to achieve 95% confidence about eradication, but the complexities in real populations and the imperfect nature of surveillance require consideration. Methods: We revisit the probability of undetected poliovirus circulation using a more comprehensive model that reflects the conditions in a number of places with different characteristics related to WPV transmission, and we model the actual environmental WPV detection that occurred in Israel in 2013. We consider the analogous potential for undetected transmission of circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. The model explicitly accounts for the impact of different vaccination activities before and after the last detected case of paralytic polio, different levels of surveillance, variability in transmissibility and neurovirulence among serotypes, and the possibility of asymptomatic participation in transmission by previously-vaccinated or infected individuals. Results: We find that prolonged circulation in the absence of cases and thus undetectable by case-based surveillance may occur if vaccination keeps population immunity close to but not over the threshold required for the interruption of transmission, as may occur in northwestern Nigeria for serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus in the event of insufficient tOPV use. Participation of IPV-vaccinated individuals in asymptomatic fecal-oral transmission may also contribute to extended transmission undetectable by case-based surveillance, as occurred in Israel. We also find that gaps or quality issues in surveillance could significantly reduce confidence about actual disruption. Maintaining high population immunity and high-quality surveillance for several years after the last detected polio cases will remain critical elements of the polio end game. Conclusions: Countries will need to maintain vigilance in their surveillance for polioviruses and recognize that their risks of undetected circulation may differ as a function of their efforts to manage population immunity and to identify cases or circulating live polioviruses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Global efforts to eradicate wild polioviruses (WPVs) continue to face challenges due to uninterrupted endemic WPV transmission in three countries and importation-related outbreaks into previously polio-free countries. We explore the potential role of including older children and adults in supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) to more rapidly increase population immunity and prevent or stop transmission. Methods We use a differential equation-based dynamic poliovirus transmission model to analyze the epidemiological impact and vaccine resource implications of expanding target age groups in SIAs. We explore the use of older age groups in SIAs for three situations: alternative responses to the 2010 outbreak in Tajikistan, retrospective examination of elimination in northern India, and prospective and retrospective strategies to accelerate elimination in endemic northwestern Nigeria. Our model recognizes the ability of individuals with waned mucosal immunity (i.e., immunity from a historical live poliovirus infection) to become reinfected and contribute to transmission to a limited extent. Results SIAs involving expanded age groups reduce overall caseloads, decrease transmission, and generally lead to a small reduction in the time to achieve WPV elimination. Analysis of preventive expanded age group SIAs in Tajikistan or prior to type-specific surges in incidence in northern India and northwest Nigeria showed the greatest potential benefits of expanded age groups. Analysis of expanded age group SIAs in outbreak situations or to accelerate the interruption of endemic transmission showed relatively less benefit, largely due to the circulation of WPV reaching individuals sooner or more effectively than the SIAs. The results for northern India and northwestern Nigeria depend strongly on how well SIAs involving expanded age groups reach relatively isolated subpopulations that sustain clusters of susceptible children, which we assume play a key role in persistent endemic WPV transmission in these areas. Conclusions This study suggests the need to carefully consider the epidemiological situation in the context of decisions to use expanded age group SIAs. Subpopulations of susceptible individuals may independently sustain transmission, which will reduce the overall benefits associated with using expanded age group SIAs to increase population immunity to a sufficiently high level to stop transmission and reduce the incidence of paralytic cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wild poliovirus has remained endemic in northern Nigeria because of low coverage achieved in the routine immunization program and in supplementary immunization activities (SIAs). An outbreak of infection involving 315 cases of type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2; >1% divergent from Sabin 2) occurred during July 2005–June 2010, a period when 23 of 34 SIAs used monovalent or bivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) lacking Sabin 2. In addition, 21 “pre-VDPV2” (0.5%–1.0% divergent) cases occurred during this period. Both cVDPV and pre-VDPV cases were clinically indistinguishable from cases due to wild poliovirus. The monthly incidence of cases increased sharply in early 2009, as more children aged without trivalent OPV SIAs. Cumulative state incidence of pre-VDPV2/cVDPV2 was correlated with low childhood immunization against poliovirus type 2 assessed by various means. Strengthened routine immunization programs in countries with suboptimal coverage and balanced use of OPV formulations in SIAs are necessary to minimize risks of VDPV emergence and circulation. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Beginning in 2013, multiple local government areas (LGAs) in Borno and Yobe in northeast Nigeria and other parts of the Lake Chad basin experienced a violent insurgency that resulted in substantial numbers of isolated and displaced people. Northeast Nigeria represents the last known reservoir country of wild poliovirus (WPV) transmission in Africa, with detection of paralytic cases caused by serotype 1 WPV in 2016 in Borno and serotype 3 WPV in late 2012. Parts of Borno and Yobe are also problematic areas for transmission of serotype 2 circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses, and they continue to face challenges associated with conflict and inadequate health services in security-compromised areas that limit both immunization and surveillance activities. We model poliovirus transmission of all three serotypes for Borno and Yobe using a deterministic differential equation-based model that includes four subpopulations to account for limitations in access to immunization services and dynamic restrictions in population mixing. We find that accessibility issues and insufficient immunization allow for prolonged poliovirus transmission and potential undetected paralytic cases, although as of the end of 2019, including responsive program activities in the modeling suggest die out of indigenous serotypes 1 and 3 WPVs prior to 2020. Specifically, recent and current efforts to access isolated populations and provide oral poliovirus vaccine continue to reduce the risks of sustained and undetected transmission, although some uncertainty remains. Continued improvement in immunization and surveillance in the isolated subpopulations should minimize these risks. Stochastic modeling can build on this analysis to characterize the implications for undetected transmission and confidence about no circulation., (Published 2020. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.)

Introduction: In 1988, the World Health Assembly resolved to eradicate poliomyelitis. Since then, much progress towards this goal has been made, but three countries including Nigeria remain polio-endemic as of end 2012. To assess the immunity level against poliomyelitis in young children in Northern Nigeria, we conducted a seroprevalence survey in the Kano Metropolitan Area (KMA) in May 2011., Methods: Parents or guardians of infants aged 6-9months or children aged 36-47months presenting to the outpatient department of Murtala Mohammad Specialist Hospital were approached for participation, screened for eligibility and were asked to provide informed consent. After that, a questionnaire was administered and blood was collected for neutralization assay., Results: A total of 327 subjects were enrolled. Of these, 313 (96%) met the study requirements and were analyzed (161 [51%] aged 6-9months and 152 [49%] aged 36-47months). Among subjects aged 6-9months, seroprevalence was 81% (95% confidence interval [CI] 75-87%) to poliovirus type 1, 76% (95% CI 68-81%) to poliovirus type 2, and 73% (95% CI 67-80%) to poliovirus type 3. Among subjects aged 36-47months, the seroprevalence was 91% (95% CI 86-95%) to poliovirus type 1, 87% (95% CI 82-92%) for poliovirus type 2, and 86% (95% CI 80-91%) to poliovirus type 3. Seroprevalence was associated with history of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) doses, maternal education and gender., Conclusions: Seroprevalence is lower than required levels for poliovirus interruption in the KMA. Persistence of immunity gaps in the 36-47months group is a big concern. Since higher number of vaccine doses is associated with higher seroprevalence, it implies that failure-to-vaccinate and not vaccine failure accounts for the suboptimal seroprevalence. Intensified efforts are necessary to administer polio vaccines to all target children and surpass the threshold levels for herd immunity., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Since 2005, a large poliomyelitis outbreak associated with type 2 circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV2) has occurred in northern Nigeria, where immunization coverage with trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (tOPV) has been low. Phylogenetic analysis of P1/capsid region sequences of isolates from each of the 403 cases reported in 2005 to 2011 resolved the outbreak into 23 independent type 2 vaccine-derived poliovirus (VDPV2) emergences, at least 7 of which established circulating lineage groups. Virus from one emergence (lineage group 2005-8; 361 isolates) was estimated to have circulated for over 6 years. The population of the major cVDPV2 lineage group expanded rapidly in early 2009, fell sharply after two tOPV rounds in mid-2009, and gradually expanded again through 2011. The two major determinants of attenuation of the Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine strain (A481 in the 5'-untranslated region [5'-UTR] and VP1-Ile143) had been replaced in all VDPV2 isolates; most A481 5'-UTR replacements occurred by recombination with other enteroviruses. cVDPV2 isolates representing different lineage groups had biological properties indistinguishable from those of wild polioviruses, including efficient growth in neuron-derived HEK293 cells, the capacity to cause paralytic disease in both humans and PVR-Tg21 transgenic mice, loss of the temperature-sensitive phenotype, and the capacity for sustained person-to-person transmission. We estimate from the poliomyelitis case count and the paralytic case-to-infection ratio for type 2 wild poliovirus infections that ∼700,000 cVDPV2 infections have occurred during the outbreak. The detection of multiple concurrent cVDPV2 outbreaks in northern Nigeria highlights the risks of cVDPV emergence accompanying tOPV use at low rates of coverage in developing countries.