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The American Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic has highlighted the need to gain a better understanding of this emerging virus. The goal of this study was to describe the clinical symptoms, laboratory findings, and risk factors for symptomatic ZIKV infection in an area with ongoing transmission of other arboviral infections. We recruited patients at least 2 years of age seeking care at public health centers in León, Nicaragua, between January 2016 and August 2017, for fever, maculopapular rash, and/or nonsuppurative conjunctivitis with a duration of less than 1 week. A laboratory diagnosis of ZIKV was established using a combination of molecular and serological tests. Clinical and laboratory findings and potential risk factors were compared between participants with and without acute ZIKV infection. Fifty-eight (26%) of the 225 participants included in the analysis were found to have acute ZIKV infection. Pregnancy and reports of previous arboviral infection were associated with a higher risk of ZIKV infection. Rash, conjunctivitis, sore throat, and lower absolute neutrophil counts were associated with acute ZIKV infection. The clinical characteristics and risk factors identified were consistent with those identified by previous studies; however, we found sore throat to be a feature of ZIKV infection. We also found that neutrophil counts were lower in ZIKV-infected subjects. These clinical symptoms and laboratory data may help clinicians suspect ZIKV infection during future outbreaks.

Dengue, caused by the four serotypes of dengue virus (DENV), is the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease of humans. To examine the incidence and transmission of dengue, the authors performed a prospective community-based cohort study in 5,545 children aged 2-14 years in Managua, Nicaragua, between 2004 and 2010. Children were provided with medical care through study physicians who systematically recorded medical consult data, and yearly blood samples were collected to evaluate DENV infection incidence. The incidence of dengue cases observed was 16.1 cases (range 3.4-43.5) per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 14.5, 17.8), and a pattern of high dengue case incidence every other year was observed. The incidence of DENV infections was 90.2 infections (range 45.2-105.3) per 1,000 person-years (95% CI: 86.1, 94.5). The majority of DENV infections in young children (<6 years old) were primary (60%) and the majority of infections in older children (≥ 9 years of age) were secondary (82%), as expected. The incidence rate of second DENV infections (121.3 per 1,000 person-years; 95% CI: 102.7, 143.4) was significantly higher than the incidence rate of primary DENV infections (78.8 per 1,000 person-years; 95% CI: 73.2, 84.9). The rigorous analytic methodology used in this study, including incidence reporting in person-years, allows comparison across studies and across different infectious diseases. This study provides important information for understanding dengue epidemiology and informing dengue vaccine policy.

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral illness, is a major public health problem worldwide, and its incidence continues to increase. In 2009, the World Health Organization published guidelines that included a revision of the dengue case definition. Compared to the traditional definition, the revised case definition relies more on signs than on symptoms, making it more applicable to young children. We evaluated the diagnostic utility of both case definitions in two studies of pediatric dengue in Managua, Nicaragua. In a community-based cohort study, we included data from 3,407 suspected dengue cases, of which 476 were laboratory-confirmed. In the second study, we collected information from 1,160 participants recruited at the national pediatric reference hospital (723 laboratory-confirmed). In the cohort study, the traditional definition had 89.3% sensitivity and 43.1% specificity, while the revised definition yielded similar sensitivity (86.6%) and higher specificity (55.2%, p<0.001). In the hospital study, the traditional case definition yielded 96.7% sensitivity and 22.0% specificity, whereas the revised case definition had higher sensitivity (99.3%, p<0.001) but lower specificity (8.5%, p<0.001). We then evaluated the performance of two diagnostic models based on the signs/symptoms included in each definition by analyzing the effect of increasing numbers of signs/symptoms on the sensitivity and specificity of case capture. Receiver operating characteristic analysis showed a slightly better performance for the revised model in both studies. Interestingly, despite containing less symptoms that cannot be readily expressed by children aged less than 4 years, the revised definition did not perform better in this age group. Overall, our results indicate that both case definitions have similar capacity to diagnose dengue. Owing to their high sensitivity and low specificity, they should be primarily used for screening purposes. However, in a primary care setting, neither of the case definitions performed well as a screening test in younger children.

Four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) circulate globally, causing more human illness than any other arthropod-borne virus. Dengue can present as a range of clinical manifestations from undifferentiated fever to Dengue Fever to severe, life-threatening syndromes. However, most DENV infections are inapparent. Yet, little is known about determinants of inapparent versus symptomatic DENV infection outcome. Here, we analyzed over 2,000 DENV infections from 2004 to 2011 in a prospective pediatric cohort study in Managua, Nicaragua. Symptomatic cases were captured at the study health center, and paired healthy annual samples were examined on a yearly basis using serological methods to identify inapparent DENV infections. Overall, inapparent and symptomatic DENV infections were equally distributed by sex. The mean age of infection was 1.2 years higher for symptomatic DENV infections as compared to inapparent infections. Although inapparent versus symptomatic outcome did not differ by infection number (first, second or third/post-second DENV infections), substantial variation in the proportion of symptomatic DENV infections among all DENV infections was observed across study years. In participants with repeat DENV infections, the time interval between a first inapparent DENV infection and a second inapparent infection was significantly shorter than the interval between a first inapparent and a second symptomatic infection. This difference was not observed in subsequent infections. This result was confirmed using two different serological techniques that measure total anti-DENV antibodies and serotype-specific neutralizing antibodies, respectively. Taken together, these findings show that, in this study, age, study year and time interval between consecutive DENV infections influence inapparent versus symptomatic infection outcome, while sex and infection number had no significant effect. Moreover, these results suggest that the window of cross-protection induced by a first infection with DENV against a second symptomatic infection is approximately 2 years. These findings are important for modeling dengue epidemics and development of vaccines.

Dengue is the most prevalent mosquito-borne human illness worldwide. The ability to predict disease severity during the earliest days of the illness is a long-sought, but unachieved goal.We examined human genome-wide transcript abundance patterns in daily peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) samples from 41 children hospitalized with dengue virus (DENV) infection in Nicaragua, as well as 8 healthy control subjects. Nine patients had primary dengue fever (DF1), 11 had dengue fever with serologic evidence of prior DENV infection, i.e., secondary dengue fever (DF2), 12 had dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF), and 9 had dengue shock syndrome (DSS). We identified 2,092 genes for which transcript abundance differed significantly between patients on days 3-6 of fever and healthy subjects (FDR<1%). Prior DENV infection explained the greatest amount of variation in gene expression among patients. The number of differentially expressed genes was greatest on fever day 3 in patients with DF1, while the number in patients with DF2 or DHF/DSS was greatest on day 5. Genes associated with the mitotic cell cycle and B cell differentiation were expressed at higher levels, and genes associated with signal transduction and cell adhesion were expressed at lower levels, in patients versus healthy controls. On fever day 3, a set of interferon-stimulated gene transcripts was less abundant in patients who subsequently developed DSS than in other patient groups (p<0.05, ranksum). Patients who later developed DSS also had higher levels of transcripts on day 3 associated with mitochondrial function (p<0.01, ranksum). These day 3 transcript abundance findings were not evident on subsequent fever days.In conclusion, we identified differences in the timing and magnitude of human gene transcript abundance changes in DENV patients that were associated with serologic evidence of prior infection and with disease severity. Some of these differential features may predict the outcome of DENV infection.

Background: Tens of millions of dengue cases and approximately 500,000 life-threatening complications occur annually. New tools are needed to distinguish dengue from other febrile illnesses. In addition, the natural history of pediatric dengue early in illness in a community-based setting has not been well-defined., Methods: Data from the multi-year, ongoing Pediatric Dengue Cohort Study of approximately 3,800 children aged 2-14 years in Managua, Nicaragua, were used to examine the frequency of clinical signs and symptoms by day of illness and to generate models for the association of signs and symptoms during the early phase of illness and over the entire course of illness with testing dengue-positive. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using generalized estimating equations (GEE) for repeated measures, adjusting for age and gender., Results: One-fourth of children who tested dengue-positive did not meet the WHO case definition for suspected dengue. The frequency of signs and symptoms varied by day of illness, dengue status, and disease severity. Multivariable GEE models showed increased odds of testing dengue-positive associated with fever, headache, retro-orbital pain, myalgia, arthralgia, rash, petechiae, positive tourniquet test, vomiting, leukopenia, platelets ≤150,000 cells/mL, poor capillary refill, cold extremities and hypotension. Estimated ORs tended to be higher for signs and symptoms over the course of illness compared to the early phase of illness., Conclusions: Day-by-day analysis of clinical signs and symptoms together with longitudinal statistical analysis showed significant associations with testing dengue-positive and important differences during the early phase of illness compared to the entire course of illness. These findings stress the importance of considering day of illness when developing prediction algorithms for real-time clinical management.

The four dengue virus serotypes (DENV1-4) cause the most prevalent mosquito-borne viral disease affecting humans worldwide. In 2009, Nicaragua experienced the largest dengue epidemic in over a decade, marked by unusual clinical presentation, as observed in two prospective studies of pediatric dengue in Managua. From August 2009-January 2010, 212 dengue cases were confirmed among 396 study participants at the National Pediatric Reference Hospital. In our parallel community-based cohort study, 170 dengue cases were recorded in 2009-10, compared to 13-65 cases in 2004-9. In both studies, significantly more patients experienced "compensated shock" (poor capillary refill plus cold extremities, tachycardia, tachypnea, and/or weak pulse) in 2009-10 than in previous years (42.5% [90/212] vs. 24.7% [82/332] in the hospital study (p<0.001) and 17% [29/170] vs. 2.2% [4/181] in the cohort study (p<0.001). Signs of poor peripheral perfusion presented significantly earlier (1-2 days) in 2009-10 than in previous years according to Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. In the hospital study, 19.8% of subjects were transferred to intensive care, compared to 7.1% in previous years - similar to the cohort study. DENV-3 predominated in 2008-9, 2009-10, and 2010-11, and full-length sequencing revealed no major genetic changes from 2008-9 to 2010-11. In 2008-9 and 2010-11, typical dengue was observed; only in 2009-10 was unusual presentation noted. Multivariate analysis revealed only "2009-10" as a significant risk factor for Dengue Fever with Compensated Shock. Interestingly, circulation of pandemic influenza A-H1N1 2009 in Managua was shifted such that it overlapped with the dengue epidemic. We hypothesize that prior influenza A H1N1 2009 infection may have modulated subsequent DENV infection, and initial results of an ongoing study suggest increased risk of shock among children with anti-H1N1-2009 antibodies. This study demonstrates that parameters other than serotype, viral genomic sequence, immune status, and sequence of serotypes can play a role in modulating dengue disease outcome.

Dengue is a major public health problem worldwide and continues to increase in incidence. Dengue virus (DENV) infection leads to a range of outcomes, including subclinical infection, undifferentiated febrile illness, Dengue Fever (DF), life-threatening syndromes with fluid loss and hypotensive shock, or other severe manifestations such as bleeding and organ failure. The long-standing World Health Organization (WHO) dengue classification and management scheme was recently revised, replacing DF, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever (DHF), and Dengue Shock Syndrome (DSS) with Dengue without Warning Signs, Dengue with Warning Signs (abdominal pain, persistent vomiting, fluid accumulation, mucosal bleeding, lethargy, liver enlargement, increasing hematocrit with decreasing platelets) and Severe Dengue (SD; dengue with severe plasma leakage, severe bleeding, or organ failure). We evaluated the traditional and revised classification schemes against clinical intervention levels to determine how each captures disease severity using data from five years (2005-2010) of a hospital-based study of pediatric dengue in Managua, Nicaragua. Laboratory-confirmed dengue cases (n = 544) were categorized using both classification schemes and by level of care (I-III). Category I was out-patient care, Category II was in-patient care that did not meet criteria for Category III, which included ICU admission, ventilation, administration of inotropic drugs, or organ failure. Sensitivity and specificity to capture Category III care for DHF/DSS were 39.0% and 75.5%, respectively; sensitivity and specificity for SD were 92.1% and 78.5%, respectively. In this data set, DENV-2 was found to be significantly associated with DHF/DSS; however, this association was not observed with the revised classification. Among dengue-confirmed cases, the revised WHO classification for severe dengue appears to have higher sensitivity and specificity to identify cases in need of heightened care, although it is no longer as specific for a particular pathogenic entity as was the traditional schema.

To investigate age-related differences in dengue severity, 114 infants, 1,211 children, and 346 adults with laboratory-confirmed dengue virus (DEN) infections presenting to three hospitals in major urban centers in Nicaragua were recruited from 1999 to 2001. The age distribution of dengue cases and the circulating serotype (predominantly DEN2) were representative of national data. Similar results were obtained when either dengue hemorrhagic fever/dengue shock syndrome or its principal manifestations (vascular permeability, internal hemorrhage, marked thrombocytopenia, and/or shock) were analyzed in relation to age and immune status. The burden of disease and of severe dengue was found predominantly in infants 4-9 months of age and in children 5-9 years old, and secondary DEN infection was a risk factor for severity in children. Age-related differences were identified in the prevalence of specific clinical manifestations as well as in their association with a confirmed DEN diagnosis. This represents one of the few comprehensive studies to analyze characteristics of dengue in infants, children, and adults in the same population and highlights age-related differences in dengue severity.

The World Health Organization (WHO) scheme for classification of dengue severity was evaluated in a three-year study of 1,671 confirmed dengue cases in three Nicaraguan hospitals. The WHO classification of dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) and dengue shock syndrome (DSS) was compared with the presence of hemorrhagic manifestations, signs of vascular permeability, marked thrombocytopenia, and shock in 114 infants, 1,211 children, and 346 adults. We found that strict application of the WHO criteria fails to detect a significant number of patients with severe manifestations of dengue, especially in adults.