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Background: Coronary heart disease occurs more frequently among patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) compared to those without COPD. While some research suggests that long-acting bronchodilators might confer an additional risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), information from real-world clinical practice about the cardiovascular impact of using two versus one long-acting bronchodilator for COPD is limited. We undertook a population-based nested case-control study to estimate the risk of ACS in users of both a long-acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA) and a long-acting beta2-agonist (LABA) relative to users of a LAMA.Methods: The study was based on the primary care PREDICT Cardiovascular Disease Cohort and linked data from regional laboratories and the New Zealand Ministry of Health's national data collections. The underlying cohort (n = 29,993) comprised patients aged 45-84 years, who initiated treatment with a LAMA and/or LABA for COPD between 1 February 2006 and 11 October 2016. 1490 ACS cases were matched to 13,550 controls by date of birth, sex, date of cohort entry (first long-acting bronchodilator dispensing), and COPD severity.Results: Relative to current use of LAMA therapy, current use of LAMA and LABA dual therapy was associated with a significantly higher risk of ACS (adjusted OR = 1.72; [95% CI: 1.28-2.31]).Conclusion: Dual long-acting bronchodilator therapy, rather than LAMA mono-therapy, could increase the risk of ACS by more than 50%. This has important implications for decisions about the potential benefit/harm ratio of COPD treatment intensification, given the modest benefits of dual therapy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Following acute coronary syndrome (ACS), patients are managed long-term in the community, yet few tools are available to guide patient-clinician communication about risk management in that setting. We developed a score for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among patients managed in the community after ACS.Methods: Adults aged 30-79 years with prior ACS were identified from a New Zealand primary care CVD risk management database (PREDICT) with linkage to national mortality, hospitalisation, pharmaceutical dispensing and regional laboratory data. A Cox model incorporating clinically relevant factors was developed to estimate the time to a subsequent fatal or non-fatal CVD event and transformed into a 5-year risk score. External validation was performed in patients (Coronary Disease Cohort Study) assessed 4 months post-ACS.Results: The PREDICT-ACS cohort included 13 703 patients with prior hospitalisation for ACS (median 1.9 years prior), 69% men, 58% European, median age 63 years, who experienced 3142 CVD events in the subsequent 5 years. Median estimated 5 year CVD risk was 24% (IQR 17%-35%). The validation cohort consisted of 2014 patients, 72% men, 92% European, median age 67 years, with 712 CVD events in the subsequent 5 years. Median estimated 5-year risk was 33% (IQR 24%-51%). The risk score was well calibrated in the derivation and validation cohorts, and Harrell's c-statistic was 0.69 and 0.68, respectively.Conclusions: The PREDICT-ACS risk score uses data routinely available in community care to predict the risk of recurrent clinical events. It was derived and validated in real-world contemporary populations and can inform management decisions with patients living in the community after experiencing an ACS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Whether the benefits of aspirin for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) outweigh its bleeding harms in some patients is unclear.Objective: To identify persons without CVD for whom aspirin would probably result in a net benefit.Design: Individualized benefit-harm analysis based on sex-specific risk scores and estimates of the proportional effect of aspirin on CVD and major bleeding from a 2019 meta-analysis.Setting: New Zealand primary care.Participants: 245 028 persons (43.6% women) aged 30 to 79 years without established CVD who had their CVD risk assessed between 2012 and 2016.Measurements: The net effect of aspirin was calculated for each participant by subtracting the number of CVD events likely to be prevented (CVD risk score × proportional effect of aspirin on CVD risk) from the number of major bleeds likely to be caused (major bleed risk score × proportional effect of aspirin on major bleeding risk) over 5 years.Results: 2.5% of women and 12.1% of men were likely to have a net benefit from aspirin treatment for 5 years if 1 CVD event was assumed to be equivalent in severity to 1 major bleed, increasing to 21.4% of women and 40.7% of men if 1 CVD event was assumed to be equivalent to 2 major bleeds. Net benefit subgroups had higher baseline CVD risk, higher levels of most established CVD risk factors, and lower levels of bleeding-specific risk factors than net harm subgroups.Limitations: Risk scores and effect estimates were uncertain. Effects of aspirin on cancer outcomes were not considered. Applicability to non-New Zealand populations was not assessed.Conclusion: For some persons without CVD, aspirin is likely to result in net benefit.Primary Funding Source: Health Research Council of New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Many prognostic models for cardiovascular risk can be used to estimate aspirin's absolute benefits, but few bleeding risk models are available to estimate its likely harms.Objective: To develop prognostic bleeding risk models among persons in whom aspirin might be considered for the primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD).Design: Prospective cohort study.Setting: New Zealand primary care.Participants: The study cohort comprised 385 191 persons aged 30 to 79 years whose CVD risk was assessed between 2007 and 2016. Those with indications for or contraindications to aspirin and those who were already receiving antiplatelet or anticoagulant therapy were excluded.Measurements: For each sex, Cox proportional hazards models were developed to predict major bleeding risk; participants were censored at the earliest of the date on which they first met an exclusion criterion, date of death, or study end date (30 June 2017). The main models included the following predictors: demographic characteristics (age, ethnicity, and socioeconomic deprivation), clinical measurements (systolic blood pressure and ratio of total-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol), family history of premature CVD, medical history (smoking, diabetes, bleeding, peptic ulcer disease, cancer, chronic liver disease, chronic pancreatitis, or alcohol-related conditions), and medication use (nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory agents, corticosteroids, and selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors).Results: During 1 619 846 person-years of follow-up, 4442 persons had major bleeding events (of which 313 [7%] were fatal). The main models predicted a median 5-year bleeding risk of 1.0% (interquartile range, 0.8% to 1.5%) in women and 1.1% (interquartile range, 0.7% to 1.6%) in men. Plots of predicted-against-observed event rates showed good calibration throughout the risk range.Limitation: Hemoglobin level, platelet count, and body mass index were excluded from the main models because of high numbers of missing values, and the models were not externally validated in non-New Zealand populations.Conclusion: Prognostic bleeding risk models were developed that can be used to estimate the absolute bleeding harms of aspirin among persons in whom aspirin is being considered for the primary prevention of CVD.Primary Funding Source: The Health Research Council of New Zealand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Importance: A decision to initiate aspirin therapy for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires consideration of both treatment benefits and harms. The most significant harm associated with aspirin is major bleeding, yet there is a paucity of data on bleeding risk in suitable community populations.Objective: To determine the risk of major bleeding among people without CVD who are not receiving antiplatelet therapy.Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective cohort study of 359 166 individuals aged 30 to 79 years receiving primary care in New Zealand who had CVD risk assessment between 2002 and 2015. Participants were censored at the earliest date on which they had a first major bleeding event, died, or met any baseline cohort exclusion criteria or the study end date of December 31, 2015. Analyses were repeated after excluding people with medical conditions associated with increased bleeding risk (non-high-risk cohort; n=305 057) and after further excluding people receiving other medications associated with increased bleeding risk (nonmedication cohort; n=240 254).Exposures: Sex and age group in 10-year bands from 30 to 79 years.Main Outcomes and Measures: Risk of a major bleeding event (hospitalization or death associated with bleeding); nonfatal gastrointestinal tract bleeding; and gastrointestinal tract bleeding-related case fatality.Results: Mean participant age was 54 years (SD, 10 years), 44% were women, and 57% were European. Among the 359 166 individuals in the baseline cohort, 3976 had a major bleeding event during 1 281 896 person-years of follow-up. Most had gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding (n=2910 [73%]). There were 274 fatal bleeding events (7%), of which 153 were intracerebral. The risk of a nonfatal GI bleeding event per 1000 person-years was 2.19 (95% CI, 2.11-2.27), 1.77 (95% CI, 1.69-1.85) and 1.61 (95% CI, 1.52-1.69), in the baseline, non-high-risk, and nonmedication cohorts, respectively. Case fatality associated with GI bleeding was 3.4% (95% CI, 2.2%-4.1%), 4.0% (95% CI, 3.2%-5.1%), and 4.6% (95% CI, 3.6%-6.0%) in the baseline, non-high-risk, and nonmedication cohorts, respectively.Conclusions and Relevance: In a population not receiving antiplatelet therapy, the annual risk of major bleeding events and nonfatal major bleeding was estimated. These findings could inform population-level guidelines for primary prevention of CVD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: To examine recent trends in first and recurrent ischaemic heart disease (IHD) deaths and hospitalisations.Methods: Using anonymous patient-linkage of routinely collected data, all New Zealanders aged 35-84 years who experienced an International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems I(CD)-coded IHD hospitalisation and/or IHD death between 1 January 2005 and 31 December 2015 were identified. A 10-year look-back period was used to differentiate those experiencing first from recurrent events. Age-standardised hospitalisation and mortality rates were calculated for each calendar year and trends compared by sex and age.Results: 160 109 people experienced at least one IHD event (259 678 hospitalisations and 35 548 deaths) over the 11-year study period, and there was a steady decline in numbers (from almost 24 000 in 2005 to just over 16 000 in 2015) and in age-standardised rates each year. With the exception of deaths in younger (35-64 years) women with prior IHD, there was a significant decline in IHD events in men and women of all ages, with and without a history of IHD. The decline in IHD mortality was greater for those experiencing a first rather than recurrent IHD event (3.8%-5.2% vs 0%-3.7% annually on average). In contrast, the decline in IHD hospitalisations was greater for those experiencing a recurrent compared with a first IHD event (5.6%-7.3% vs 3.2%-5.7% annually on average).Conclusions: The substantial decline in IHD hospitalisations and mortality observed in New Zealanders with and without prior IHD between 2005 and 2015 suggests that primary and secondary prevention efforts have been effective in reducing the occurrence of IHD events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Until recently, most patients with diabetes worldwide have been diagnosed when symptomatic and have high cardiovascular risk, meaning most should be prescribed cardiovascular preventive medications. However, in New Zealand, a world-first national programme led to approximately 90% of eligible adults being screened for diabetes by 2016, up from 50% in 2012, identifying many asymptomatic patients with recent-onset diabetes. We hypothesised that cardiovascular risk prediction equations derived before widespread screening would now significantly overestimate risk in screen-detected patients.Methods: New Zealanders aged 30-74 years with type 2 diabetes and without known cardiovascular disease, heart failure, or substantial renal impairment were identified from the 400 000-person PREDICT primary care cohort study between Oct 27, 2004, and Dec 30, 2016, covering the period before and after widespread screening. Sex-specific equations estimating 5-year risk of cardiovascular disease were developed using Cox regression models, with 18 prespecified predictors, including diabetes-related and renal function measures. Equation performance was compared with an equivalent equation derived in the New Zealand Diabetes Cohort Study (NZDCS), which recruited between 2000 and 2006, before widespread screening.Findings: 46 652 participants were included in the PREDICT-1° Diabetes subcohort, of whom 4114 experienced first cardiovascular events during follow-up (median 5·2 years, IQR 3·3-7·4). 14 829 (31·8%) were not taking oral hypoglycaemic medications or insulin at baseline. Median 5-year cardiovascular risk estimated by the new equations was 4·0% (IQR 2·3-6·8) in women and 7·1% (4·5-11·2) in men. The older NZDCS equation overestimated median cardiovascular risk by three times in women (median 14·2% [9·7-20·0]) and two times in men (17·1% [4·5-20·0]). Model and discrimination performance measures for PREDICT-1° Diabetse equations were also significantly better than for the NZDCS equation (eg, for women: R2=32% [95% CI 29-34], Harrell's C=0·73 [0·72-0·74], Royston's D=1·410 [1·330-1·490] vs R2=24% [21-26], C=0·69 [0·67-0·70], and D=1·147 [1·107-1·187]).Interpretation: International treatment guidelines still consider most people with diabetes to be at high cardiovascular risk; however, we show that recent widespread diabetes screening has radically changed the cardiovascular risk profile of people with diabetes in New Zealand. Many of these patients have normal renal function, are not dispensed glucose-lowering medications, and have low cardiovascular risk. These findings have clear international implications as increased diabetes screening is inevitable due to increasing obesity, simpler screening tests, and the introduction of new-generation glucose-lowering medications that prevent cardiovascular events. Cardiovascular risk prediction equations derived from contemporary diabetes populations, with multiple diabetes-related and renal function predictors, will be required to better differentiate between low-risk and high-risk patients in this increasingly heterogeneous population and to inform appropriate non-pharmacological management and cost-effective targeting of expensive new medications.Funding: Health Research Council of New Zealand, Heart Foundation of New Zealand, and Healthier Lives National Science Challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Most cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in use today were derived from cohorts established last century and with participants at higher risk but less socioeconomically and ethnically diverse than patients they are now applied to. We recruited a nationally representative cohort in New Zealand to develop equations relevant to patients in contemporary primary care and compared the performance of these new equations to equations that are recommended in the USA.Methods: The PREDICT study automatically recruits participants in routine primary care when general practitioners in New Zealand use PREDICT software to assess their patients' risk profiles for cardiovascular disease, which are prospectively linked to national ICD-coded hospitalisation and mortality databases. The study population included male and female patients in primary care who had no prior cardiovascular disease, renal disease, or congestive heart failure. New equations predicting total cardiovascular disease risk were developed using Cox regression models, which included clinical predictors plus an area-based deprivation index and self-identified ethnicity. Calibration and discrimination performance of the equations were assessed and compared with 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations (PCEs). The additional predictors included in new PREDICT equations were also appended to the PCEs to determine whether they were independent predictors in the equations from the USA.Findings: Outcome events were derived for 401 752 people aged 30-74 years at the time of their first PREDICT risk assessment between Aug 27, 2002, and Oct 12, 2015, representing about 90% of the eligible population. The mean follow-up was 4·2 years, and a third of participants were followed for 5 years or more. 15 386 (4%) people had cardiovascular disease events (1507 [10%] were fatal, and 8549 [56%] met the PCEs definition of hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease) during 1 685 521 person-years follow-up. The median 5-year risk of total cardiovascular disease events predicted by the new equations was 2·3% in women and 3·2% in men. Multivariable adjusted risk increased by about 10% per quintile of socioeconomic deprivation. Māori, Pacific, and Indian patients were at 13-48% higher risk of cardiovascular disease than Europeans, and Chinese or other Asians were at 25-33% lower risk of cardiovascular disease than Europeans. The PCEs overestimated of hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease by about 40% in men and by 60% in women, and the additional predictors in the new equations were also independent predictors in the PCEs. The new equations were significantly better than PCEs on all performance metrics.Interpretation: We constructed a large prospective cohort study representing typical patients in primary care in New Zealand who were recommended for cardiovascular disease risk assessment. Most patients are now at low risk of cardiovascular disease, which explains why the PCEs based mainly on old cohorts substantially overestimate risk. Although the PCEs and many other equations will need to be recalibrated to mitigate overtreatment of the healthy majority, they also need new predictors that include measures of socioeconomic deprivation and multiple ethnicities to identify vulnerable high-risk subpopulations that might otherwise be undertreated.Funding: Health Research Council of New Zealand, Heart Foundation of New Zealand, and Healthier Lives National Science Challenge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To examine trends in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) incidence and prevalence in New Zealand from 2005 to 2016, using comprehensive linked national hospitalization and mortality data as proxy measures of all significant events., Methods and Results: Incident and prevalent cases of IHD in people aged ≥25 years were identified using individual patient-linkage of routinely collected ICD-10-coded hospitalization and mortality data. Incidence rates and prevalence proportions were calculated by sex and age group and then age-standardized to the 2016 New Zealand population. Ischaemic heart disease incidence and prevalence declined in men and women in all age groups. The average annual rate of decline in age-standardized IHD incidence was 3.3% for women and 2.7% for men, and the rate of decline in age-standardized IHD prevalence was 3.2% for women and 2.2% for men. Despite a 17% increase in the New Zealand population aged 25 years and over during the study period, the total number of people living with IHD also decreased, particularly in those aged 65 years and older., Conclusion: In contrast to observations from other countries, where IHD incidence but not IHD prevalence has been falling, declining IHD incidence in New Zealand in recent decades is now mirrored by declining IHD prevalence., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2020. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aim: A number of evidence-based medications are recommended following an acute coronary syndrome (ACS), including statins, antithrombotics (antiplatelet and/or anticoagulants), a beta-blocker and an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or angiotensin receptor blocker (ACE-I/ARB). This study aimed to describe the dispensing of the cardioprotective medications in the first year following an ACS hospitalisation in New Zealand and how this varies according to age, sex and type of coronary intervention., Method: National hospitalisation data was used to identify all New Zealand residents aged 35-79 years who were discharged from hospital in the years 2013/14 with a primary discharge diagnosis of ACS. Using anonymous linkage to national pharmaceutical dispensing and mortality datasets, the dispensing of each group of medications was examined in survivors of quarters one, two and four of the first year post discharge., Results: There were 14,496 patients; mean age was 63.4 years and 68.8% were male. Dispensing of medications in survivors steadily fell across quarters one, two and four: 90.8%, 82.1% and 78.8% of patients were dispensed statins; 90.6%, 79.8% and 78.1% were dispensed aspirin; 82.7%, 72.6% and 70.0% were dispensed beta-blockers; 69.6%, 62.7% and 61.3% were dispensed ACE-I/ARB; 67.7%, 53.6% and 40.4% were dispensed a P2Y12 inhibitor; and 68.6%, 53.0% and 40.7% were dispensed a combination of two or more antithrombotics., Conclusion: Cardioprotective medication dispensing was lower than would have been the case if the current ACS guidelines were followed. The greatest decrease in dispensing occurred between quarter one and quarter two, which highlights a potentially important period for targeted interventions to improve adherence., Competing Interests: Nil.

Aim: To examine trends in ischaemic heart disease (IHD) events by ethnicity., Methods: All IHD deaths and hospitalisations from 2006-2015 were identified using individual-linkage of national hospitalisation and mortality data. Age-standardised IHD rates and average annual age-adjusted percent changes were estimated by ethnic group. Ratios of non-fatal to fatal events were calculated by dividing age-standardised hospitalisation by death rates., Results: IHD mortality rates declined by 3.1-5.4% per year for most groups, except Pacific women, who experienced a non-significant decline of 1.3% per year. IHD hospitalisation rates declined significantly by 3.6-8.8% per year in all groups. IHD mortality rates were highest in Māori and Pacific people, but hospitalisation rates highest in Indians. Indians also had the highest ratio of hospitalisations to deaths. For every person who died from IHD in 2014/15, 7-8 Indians, but only 3-4 Māori or Pacific people, were hospitalised with IHD., Conclusion: Fatal and non-fatal IHD rates are declining in all groups, but Māori and Pacific people have disproportionately high rates of IHD mortality. The much lower ratio of IHD hospitalisations to deaths among Māori and Pacific people compared to others suggests there are still important barriers to preventive interventions and acute care for Māori and Pacific men and women., Competing Interests: CG has been the recipient of a Health Research Council Clinical Research Training Fellowship and a National Heart Foundation Research Fellowship. SW has received a grant from the Stevenson Foundation during the conduct of the study and grants from Roche Diagnostics Ltd and the National Heart Foundation outside of the submitted work. KP holds the National Heart Foundation Hynds Senior Fellowship. This research is part of the VIEW research programme, which is funded by the Health Research Council.

Aims: To determine the accuracy of general practice recording of prior cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the time of CVD risk assessment and whether recording impacts on CVD management., Methods: Prior CVD status entered at the time of a first CVD risk assessment from 2002-2015 was compared to prior ischaemic CVD hospitalisations from national datasets using anonymous linkage with an encrypted National Health Index identifier. Clinical factors associated with inaccurate recording of prior events were identified using multivariable logistic regression. The impact of recording accuracy was assessed by the dispensing of CVD preventive medications in the six months after first CVD risk assessment., Results: Among 454,369 people aged 35-74 years who had CVD risk assessments, 30,924 (6.8%) had previously been admitted with ischaemic CVD. Of these people, only 61% were recorded as having prior CVD during risk assessment, with better recording for coronary and stroke events than for peripheral vascular procedures. Inaccurate primary care recording was more likely for younger people (<55 years), women, Māori, Pacific, Indian and Asian ethnic groups whereas smokers and people with diabetes were more likely to have prior CVD correctly identified. Over more than a decade, the odds of inaccurate recording during risk assessment increased [OR 1.09 (95% CIs 1.08-1.10)]. If prior CVD was entered at the time of risk assessment then dispensing of blood pressure-lowering, lipid-lowering, antiplatelet/anticoagulant medications, separately or together, was higher (86%, 85%, 83% and 69%, respectively) than if not recorded (70%, 60%, 60% and 43%)., Conclusions: Overall, 39% of people with prior CVD hospitalisations were not recorded as having prior CVD when their CVD risk was first assessed in general practice. This was associated with inequities in evidence-based risk management. System-based measures are required for robust data sharing at the time of clinical decision making., Competing Interests: SW was the recipient of a Stevenson Fellowship in Health Innovation and Quality Improvement and reports grants from Roche Diagnostics Ltd and from National Heart Foundation of New Zealand outside the submitted work. CG reports grants from Health Research Council, grants from National Heart Foundation, during the conduct of the study. SM reports grants from Health Research Council.

Aim: There is a lack of consensus in the international literature pertaining to the prevalence of tinnitus for the overall population, as well as sex and age sub-groups, suggesting the need for country-specific prevalence estimates. We aim to find prevalence estimates of tinnitus that are representative of the New Zealand population., Method: We obtained data from random-digit dialled telephone surveys of households, conducted by Roy Morgan Research Limited between August, 2007, and July, 2013, for people aged ≥ 14 years in New Zealand (n=69,976). As part of the survey, participants were asked whether they have had tinnitus in the last 12 months. The response options were "yes" or "no". Estimates were standardised to the New Zealand population structure based on the 2013 national census. Sex, age and ethnic differences were explored., Results: The overall weighted prevalence for any tinnitus was 6.0% in the total New Zealand population age ≥ 14 years. Tinnitus was higher among males (6.5%) compared to females (5.5%). Males were 55% more likely to report tinnitus compared to females among young adults aged 14 to 24 years, while males were 32% more likely to report tinnitus compared to females among adults aged 50 to 64 years. Tinnitus prevalence increased with age, peaking at 13.5% for older adults aged ≥ 65 years. Adults aged ≥ 65 years are three times more likely to report tinnitus than people aged below 65 years. Tinnitus prevalence was highest among people identifying as European (7.05%) and lowest among people identifying as Asian (1.00%)., Conclusion: This is the first nationally representative study of tinnitus prevalence in New Zealand and largest study sample internationally for tinnitus prevalence to date. Tinnitus is a public health problem affecting approximately 207,000 people in the New Zealand population aged ≥ 14 years. This study has highlighted the importance of sex and age in defining a high-risk tinnitus population, but our knowledge falls short of profiling their ethnic and social-economic characteristics.

Background: There is considerable evidence that New Zealand's population is ageing. For example, the median age increased from 29 years in 1951 to 37 years in 2011-12, and will likely increase to 44 years by 2061. While the implications of an ageing population have been studied, to date there is no study investigating the impacts that population ageing will have on hearing health in New Zealand., Aim: To explore the changing population structure and estimate the burden of hearing loss in New Zealand between 2011 and 2061., Methods: Using three alternative population projections from Statistics New Zealand, we quantify the likely distribution of the population between 2011 and 2061 by age and sex. Published estimates of hearing loss stratified by age and severity of hearing loss were then applied to the population projections to highlight the potential impact that population ageing will have on hearing loss in New Zealand in the next 50 years., Results: We estimated that there were 330,269 people aged ≥14 years with hearing loss and this would increase to 449,453 in 2061. Overall, males have a higher prevalence of hearing loss than females, and while the prevalence of hearing loss among those aged 14-49 years is expected to decrease, the prevalence among the population aged ≥70 years is expected to double between 2011 and 2061., Conclusion: Age, sex and geographical variations in hearing loss are expected in the next 50 years. Further research into ethnic and variations in hearing loss will be instrumental in targeting the future hearing health workforce required to accommodate these increases.