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This study presents an updated and homogenised ozone time series covering 34 years (1987–2020) of ozonesonde measurements at Lauder, New Zealand, and attributes vertically resolved ozone trends using a multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis and a chemistry–climate model (CCM). Homogenisation of the time series leads to a marked difference in ozone values before 1997, in which the ozone trends are predominantly negative from the surface to ∼ 30 km, ranging from ∼ - 2 % per decade to - 13 % per decade, maximising at around 12–13 km, in contrast to the uncorrected time series which shows no clear trends for this period. For the post-2000 period, ozone at Lauder shows negative trends in the stratosphere, maximising just below 20 km (∼ - 5 % per decade) despite the fact that stratospheric chlorine and bromine from ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) have both been declining since 1997. However, the ozone trends change from negative for 1987–1999 to positive in the post-2000 period in the free troposphere. The post-2000 ozone trends calculated from the ozonesonde measurements compare well with those derived from the co-located low-vertical-resolution Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) ozone time series. The MLR analysis identifies that the increasing tropopause height, associated with CO2 -driven dynamical changes, is the leading factor driving the continuous negative trend in lower-stratospheric ozone at Lauder over the whole observational period, whilst the ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) only contribute to the negative ozone trend in the lower stratosphere over the pre-1999 period. Meanwhile, stratospheric temperature changes contribute significantly to the negative ozone trend above 20 km over the post-2000 period. Furthermore, the chemistry–climate model (CCM) simulations that separate the effects of individual forcings show that the predominantly negative modelled trend in ozone for the 1987–1999 period is driven not only by ODSs but also by increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs), with large but opposing impacts from methane (positive) and CO2 (negative), respectively. Over the 2000–2020 period, the model results show that the CO2 increase is the dominant driver for the negative trend in the lower stratosphere, in agreement with the MLR analysis. Although the model underestimates the observed negative ozone trend in the lower stratosphere for both periods, it clearly shows that CO2 -driven dynamical changes have played an increasingly important role in driving the lower-stratospheric ozone trends in the vicinity of Lauder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large uncertainty exists in the sign of long‐term changes in regional scale mean precipitation across the current generation of global climate models. To explore the physical drivers of this uncertainty for New Zealand, here we adopt a storyline approach applying cluster analysis to spatial patterns of future projected seasonal mean precipitation change across CMIP6 models (n = 43). For the winter precipitation change signal, the models split roughly into two main groups: both groups have a very robust wet signal across the west coast of the South Island but differ notably in terms of the sign of precipitation change across the north of the North Island. These far north winter precipitation differences appear related to how far the Hadley cell edge and regional eddy‐driven jet shift across the models relative to their historical positions. In contrast, for summer, most models have a markedly weaker and spatially non‐uniform response, where internal variability often plays a large role. However, a small group of models predict a robust wet signal across most of the country in summer. This "wet model" group is characterized by a regional La Niña‐like increase in high pressure shifted further to the south‐east of New Zealand, associated with more frequent north‐easterly flow over the country and accompanied by significant warming of local sea surface temperatures. This regional circulation response appears related to changes in stationary Rossby wave paths as opposed to changes in La Niña occurrence frequency itself. Plain Language Summary: At the regional scale, future changes to mean precipitation under climate change could carry large societal consequences. Unfortunately, large uncertainties still exist on regional scales which may hinder climate change adaptation efforts. Here we explore and characterize these uncertainties across the latest generation of global climate models for the New Zealand region. Across the models, winter precipitation changes are shown to be much more consistent compared to summer precipitation changes. In winter, changes in the jet stream and Hadley cell edge positions in the models are important for determining the regional spatial patterns of precipitation change. In summer, internal variability uncertainty plays a larger role, models that predict robust wet changes across the country are associated with more north‐easterly flow conditions in the future period. Changes to Rossby wave pathways appear important for setting up this regional circulation response in summer. Key Points: Storylines are used to characterize and explain the main precipitation change patterns across modelsSpatial patterns of precipitation change are more robust in winter, inter‐model differences relate to Hadley cell and jet changesSpatial patterns of precipitation change are less robust in summer, internal variability and Rossby wave pathway changes are important [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study presents an updated and homogenised ozone time series covering 34 years (1987–2020) of ozonesonde measurements at Lauder, New Zealand, and derived vertically resolved ozone trends. Over the period of 1987–1999, the ozone trends in the homogenised ozone data are predominantly negative from the surface to ∼30 km, ranging from −2 to −10 % decade−1, maximising at around 12–13 km. These negative trends are statistically significant at 95 % confidence level below 5 km and above 17 km. For the post-2000 period, ozone at Lauder shows negative trends in the stratosphere (but the trends are only statistically significant above 17 km), maximising just below 20 km (∼ −5 % decade−1), despite stratospheric chlorine and bromine from ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) both declining in this period. In the troposphere, the ozone trends change from negative for 1987–1999 to positive in the post-2000 period. The post-2000 ozone trends from the ozonesonde measurements compare well with those from a low-vertical resolution Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) ozone time series. A multiple-linear regression analysis indicates that anthropogenic forcing plays a significant role in driving the significant negative trend in the stratospheric ozone at Lauder, in which the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG)-driven dynamical and chemical changes is reflected in the significant positive trends in tropopause height and tropospheric temperature, and significant negative trends of stratospheric temperature observed at Lauder. The interannual variation in lower stratospheric ozone is largely explained by the variation in tropopause height at Lauder, which is highly anti-correlated with stratospheric temperature and correlated with tropospheric temperature. Furthermore, the impact of ODSs and GHGs on ozone over Lauder is assessed in a chemistry-climate model using a series of single forcing simulations. The model simulations show that the predominantly negative modelled trend in ozone for the 1987–1999 period is driven not only by ODSs, but also by increases in GHGs with large but opposing impacts from methane (positive) and CO2 (negative), respectively. Over the 2000–2020 period, although the model underestimates the observed negative ozone trend in the lower stratosphere but clearly shows that CO2-driven dynamical changes have had an increasingly important role in driving ozone trends in this region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tropical cyclones – TCs – affecting the South Pacific region are studied using coupled atmosphere-ocean earth system models and (offline) storm tracking software which tracks the position of simulated pressure lows through time. The models used are the United Kingdom Earth System Model, version 1 – UKESM1 – and the related New Zealand Earth System Model, the NZESM. The model pair considered here differ only in their treatment of the ocean and the NZESM has a nominal resolution of 0.2° in the region surrounding New Zealand and 1° elsewhere; UKESM1 has a a uniform 1° resolution everywhere. After validating the storm tracking algorithm against the track of cyclone Giselle from 1968 and cyclone Gabrielle from 2023 we use the Saffir-Simpson scale to split the tracked systems into categories based on their severity. For systems formed in the vicinity of New Zealand (and globally) the overall number is overestimated but stronger (category 2 and 3) storms are underestimated. We also see a general decrease in the total number of storms as radiative forcing, F , increases although there is some evidence of a small increase at extreme levels of warming. In the metrics studied here we find no difference between the ensembles of UKESM1 and NZESM simulations and going forward use the UKESM1, which has larger available ensembles. The power dissipation index, PDI, gives a first order measure of TC strength and we find that the average PDI per storm increases with F by up to 26 % under a 'fossil-fuelled development' scenario. Although the physical mechanisms behind the increase in average PDI with F are relatively simple to understand, those governing the frequency of occurrence are not. In the results shown here, vertical wind shear increases with F which tends to reduce TC numbers but the effect of the tropospheric relative humidity is much less clear. The increase in the area of the tropics bounded by the 26.5° isotherm should, on its own, increase the number of TCs, in opposition to the general behaviour observed, except perhaps at extreme levels of future warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Automatic lidars and ceilometers (ALCs) provide valuable information on cloud and aerosols but have not been systematically used in the evaluation of general circulation models (GCMs) and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Obstacles associated with the diversity of instruments, a lack of standardisation of data products and open processing tools mean that the value of large ALC networks worldwide is not being realised. We discuss a tool, called the Automatic Lidar and Ceilometer Framework (ALCF), that overcomes these problems and also includes a ground-based lidar simulator, which calculates the radiative transfer of laser radiation and allows one-to-one comparison with models. Our ground-based lidar simulator is based on the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP), which has been extensively used for spaceborne lidar intercomparisons. The ALCF implements all steps needed to transform and calibrate raw ALC data and create simulated attenuated volume backscattering coefficient profiles for one-to-one comparison and complete statistical analysis of clouds. The framework supports multiple common commercial ALCs (Vaisala CL31, CL51, Lufft CHM 15k and Droplet Measurement Technologies MiniMPL), reanalyses (JRA-55, ERA5 and MERRA-2) and models (the Unified Model and AMPS – the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System). To demonstrate its capabilities, we present case studies evaluating cloud in the supported reanalyses and models using CL31, CL51, CHM 15k and MiniMPL observations at three sites in New Zealand. We show that the reanalyses and models generally underestimate cloud fraction. If sufficiently high-temporal-resolution model output is available (better than 6-hourly), a direct comparison of individual clouds is also possible. We demonstrate that the ALCF can be used as a generic evaluation tool to examine cloud occurrence and cloud properties in reanalyses, NWP models, and GCMs, potentially utilising the large amounts of ALC data already available. This tool is likely to be particularly useful for the analysis and improvement of low-level cloud simulations which are not well monitored from space. This has previously been identified as a critical deficiency in contemporary models, limiting the accuracy of weather forecasts and future climate projections. While the current focus of the framework is on clouds, support for aerosol in the lidar simulator is planned in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes the development of New Zealand's Earth System Model (NZESM) and evaluates its performance against its parent model (United Kingdom Earth System Model, UKESM) and observations. The main difference between the two earth system models is an embedded high‐resolution (1/5°) nested region over the oceans around New Zealand in the NZESM. Due to this finer ocean model mesh, currents such as the East Australian Current, East Australian Current Extension, Tasman Front, and Tasman Leakage, and their volume and heat transports are better simulated in the NZESM. The improved oceanic transports have led to a reduction in upper ocean temperature and salinity biases over the nested region. In addition, net transports through the Tasman Sea of volume, heat and salt in the NZESM agree better with previously reported estimates. A consequence of the increased cross‐Tasman Sea transports in the NZESM is increased temperatures and salinity west of Australia and in the Southern Ocean reducing the meridional sea surface temperature gradient between the subtropics and sub‐Antarctic. This also leads to a weakening of the westerly winds between 60°S and 45°S over large parts of the Southern Ocean, which reduces the northward Ekman transport, reduces the formation of Antarctic Intermediate Water, and allows for a southward expansion of the Super‐Gyre in all ocean basins. Connecting an improved oceanic circulation around New Zealand to a basin‐wide Super‐Gyre response is an important step forward in our current understanding of how local scales can influence global scales in a fully coupled earth system model. Plain Language Summary: We describe the model development of the New Zealand Earth System Model and assess its performance against the model on which it is based (United Kingdom Earth System Model) and observations. The New Zealand Earth System Model is a fully coupled earth system model, which aims to model all relevant bio‐physical processes in and between the atmosphere, land, ocean, and sea‐ice. The main difference between both models is that the oceans around New Zealand in the New Zealand Earth System Model are more precisely modeled, due to a refined ocean model mesh in this region. That results in a more accurate oceanic circulation around New Zealand in the New Zealand Earth System Model compared to the United Kingdom Earth System Model and reduced model biases of temperature and salinity. These oceanic changes have implications beyond the oceans around New Zealand, causing a warming in the Southern Ocean and a related weakening of the westerly winds over the Southern Ocean. This weakening of the winds allows subtropical waters to reach further south into the Southern Ocean. It is notable that regional changes in the ocean circulation can have implications on the global scale. Key Points: NZESM is a nested fully coupled ESM based on UKESM with a high‐resolution ocean grid of 1/5° around New ZealandThe oceanic circulation is improved in NZESM over the nested domain and model biases of temperature and salinity are reducedThe Super‐Gyre intensifies and expands southward due to wind changes triggered by changes in the large‐scale heat transport [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Automatic lidars and ceilometers provide valuable information on cloud and aerosols, but have not been used systematically in the evaluation of GCMs and NWP models. Obstacles associated with the diversity of instruments, a lack of standardisation of data products and open processing tools mean that the value of the large ALC networks worldwide is not being realised. We discuss a tool, called the Automatic Lidar and Ceilometer Framework (ALCF), that overcomes these problems and also includes a ground-based lidar simulator, which calculates the radiative transfer of laser radiation, and allows one-to-one comparison with models. Our ground-based lidar simulator is based on the Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) Observation Simulator Package (COSP) which has been used extensively for spaceborne lidar intercomparisons. The ALCF implements all steps needed to transform and calibrate raw ALC data and create simulated backscatter profiles for one-to-one comparison and complete statistical analysis of cloud. The framework supports multiple common commercial ALCs (Vaisala CL31, CL51, Lufft CHM 15k and Sigma Space MiniMPL), reanalyses (JRA-55, ERA5 and MERRA-2) and models (AMPS and the Unified Model). To demonstrate its capabilities, we present case studies evaluating cloud in the supported reanalyses and models using CL31, CL51, CHM 15k and MiniMPL observations at three sites in New Zealand. We show that the reanalyses and models generally underestimate cloud fraction and overestimate cloud albedo, the common too few too bright problem. If sufficiently high temporal resolution model output is available (better than 6 hourly), a direct comparison of individual clouds is also possible. We demonstrate that the ALCF can be used as a generic evaluation tool to examine cloud occurrence and cloud properties in reanalyses, NWP models and GCMs, potentially utilising the large amounts of ALC data already available. This tool is likely to be particularly useful for the analysis and improvement of low-level cloud simulations which are not well monitored from space. This has previously been identified as a critical deficiency in contemporary models, limiting the accuracy of weather forecasts and future climate projections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We assess the major factors contributing to local biases in the hydroxyl radical (OH) as simulated by a global chemistry-climate model, using a single-column photochemical model (SCM) analysis. The SCM has been constructed to represent atmospheric chemistry at Lauder, New Zealand, which is representative of the background atmosphere of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) mid-latitudes. We use long-term observations of variables essential to tropospheric OH chemistry, i.e. ozone (O3), water vapour (H2O), methane (CH4), carbon monoxide (CO), and temperature, and assess how using these measurements affect OH calculated in the SCM, relative to a reference simulation only using modelled fields. The analysis spans 1994 to 2010. Results show that OH responds approximately linearly to correcting biases in O3, H2O, CO, CH4, and temperature. The biggest impact on OH is due to correcting an overestimation by approximately 20 to 60% of H2O, using radiosonde observations. Correcting this moist bias leads to a reduction of OH by around 5 to 35%. This is followed by correcting predominantly overestimated O3. In the troposphere, the model biases are mostly in the range of -10 to 30%. The impact of changing O3 on OH is due to two pathways; the OH responses to both are of similar magnitude but different seasonality: correcting in situ tropospheric ozone leads to changes in OH in the range -14 to 4%, whereas correcting the photolysis rate of O3 in accordance with overhead column ozone changes leads to increases of OH of 8 to 16%. The OH sensitivities to correcting CH4, CO, and temperature biases are all minor effects. The work demonstrates the feasibility of quantitatively assessing OH sensitivity to biases in longer-lived species, which can help explain differences in simulated OH between global chemistry models and relative to observations. In addition to clear-sky simulations, we have performed idealized sensitivity simulations to assess the impact of clouds (ice and liquid) on OH. The results indicate that the impacts on the ozone photolysis rate and OH are substantial, with a general decrease of OH below the clouds of up to 30% relative to the clear-skies situation, and an increase of up to 15% above. Using the SCM simulation we calculate recent OH trends at Lauder. For the period of 1994 to 2010, all trends are insignificant, in agreement with previous studies. For example, the trend in total-column OH is 0.5 ± 1.3 % over this period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]