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This paper examines ground motions for a major potential Mw7:51 rupture of the Hope Fault using a physicsbased simulation methodology and a 3D crustal velocity model of New Zealand. The simulation methodology was validated for use in the region through comparison with observations for a suite of historic small magnitude earthquakes located proximal to the Hope Fault. Simulations are compared with conventionally utilised empirical ground motion models, with simulated peak ground velocities being notably higher in regions with modelled sedimentary basins. A sensitivity analysis was undertaken where the source characteristics of magnitude, stress parameter, hypocentre location and kinematic slip distribution were varied and an analysis of their effect on ground motion intensities is presented. It was found that the magnitude and stress parameter strongly influenced long and short period ground motion amplitudes, respectively. Ground motion intensities for the Hope Fault scenario are compared with the 2016 Kaikoura Mw7:8 earthquake, it was found that the Kaikoura earthquake produced stronger motions along the eastern South Island, while the Hope Fault scenario resulted in stronger motions immediately West of the near-fault region and similar levels of ground motion in Canterbury. The simulated ground motions for this scenario complement prior empirically-based estimates and are informative for mitigation and emergency planning purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the development of depth- and V s 30 -dependent parametric velocity and spatial correlation models to characterise shear-wave velocities within the geologic layers of the Canterbury New Zealand sedimentary basin. The models utilise data from 22 shear-wave velocity profiles of up to 2.5 k m depth, derived from surface wave analysis, juxtaposed with models which detail the three-dimensional structure of the geologic formations in the Canterbury sedimentary basin. Parametric velocity equations are presented for Fine Grained Sediments, Gravels, and Tertiary layer groupings. Spatial correlations were developed and applied to generate three-dimensional stochastic velocity perturbations. Dispersion curves for the stochastic models and observed velocity profiles show good agreement over a wide frequency range with the dispersion data underlying the velocity profiles used as input data, indicating that the parametric perturbed velocity profiles replicate the dispersion characteristics of the observed velocity profiles. Collectively, these models enable seismic velocities to be realistically represented for applications such as 3D ground motion and site response simulations. • Parametric functions to prescribe velocities in Canterbury sedimentary deposits. • Geostatistics are used to develop spatial correlations to add velocity perturbations to parametric models. • Velocity modelling for use in ground motion and site response simulations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]