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Objective: Evidence indicates that medical graduates with a rural background are more likely to become rural doctors than those with an urban background (the rural background effect (RBE)). Exactly why this is so has rarely been studied. This study sought to identify the role of social, environmental and economic factors in addition to isolation characterising rural environments that either explain or modify the association between rural background and becoming a rural doctorrural practice intention. Design and setting: Secondary analysis of linked databases from the Medical Schools Outcomes Database (MSOD), Australian Bureau of Statistics and other government sources. Participants: Seven thousand four hundred twenty-two commencing medical students who took part in the MSOD survey and for whom external data could be linked. Results: No social, environmental or economic factor studied or isolation significantly contributed to explaining the RBE, although there is some evidence that areas of more attractive climate strengthen the RBE. However, even when the RBE is at its weakest, it remains a strong, positive predictor of attraction to rural practice. Conclusion: Why the RBE occurs remains unexplained. Evidence was found of a reduced RBE under certain climatic conditions and personal circumstances, but further work is required to better understand why rural background is so strongly related with rural medical intention and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives Using a novel longitudinal tracking project, this study develops and evaluates the performance of a predictive model and index of rural medical practice intention based on the characteristics of incoming medical students. Methods Medical school entry survey data were obtained from the Medical Schools Outcome Database (MSOD) project implemented in all Australian and New Zealand medical schools and coordinated through Medical Deans Australia and New Zealand, the representative body for the Deans of 18 Australian and two New Zealand medical schools and faculties. The medical school commencement survey collects data on students’ education and family background, including rural upbringing, personal circumstances and scholarships, and on their practice intentions in terms of location and specialty. The MSOD will also allow tracking of medical graduates after graduation. Logistic regression modelling was used to develop a predictive model of rural practice intention. Split-sample validation was used to gain some insight into the stability of performance of the model. Results Response rates to the MSOD survey exceeded 90% on average. The model findings confirm and extend previous research examining the association of medical student characteristics with intention to take up rural medical practice. The statistically significant independent factors in the model included students’ rural backgrounds, financial arrangements and intentions regarding specialist versus generalist practice upon graduation. Model performance was good, with an area under the receiver-operator characteristics curve of 0.86, and reproducible, with an area in a validation sample of 0.83. Conclusions The model and related index provide important insights into individual factors associated with rural practice intention among students commencing medical studies. The model can also provide a means for optimising the use of scarce medical programme resources, thereby helping to improve the supply of rural medical practitioners. This study illustrates the power and potential of a robust, consistent, systematic longitudinal tracking project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]