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Background/objectives: Inflammatory biomarkers have been associated with stroke and mortality, but inflammation may also have detrimental effects beyond acute events. We hypothesized that serum concentrations of interleukin-6 (IL6) and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (LpPLA2) were inversely associated with long-term functional decline independently of vascular risk factors, stroke and myocardial infarction (MI) occurring during follow-up., Design: Prospective population based cohort study., Setting: The Northern Manhattan Study., Participants (including the Sample Size): Race/ethnically diverse stroke-free individuals in northern Manhattan aged ≥40 years (n = 3298)., Intervention: None., Measurements: Annual functional assessments with the Barthel index (BI), for a median of 13 years. BI was analyzed as a continuous variable (range 0-100). Baseline demographics, risk factors, and laboratory studies were collected, including IL6 (n = 1679), LpPLA2 mass (n = 1912) and activity (n = 1937). Separate mixed models estimated standardized associations between each biomarker and baseline functional status and change over time, adjusting for demographics, vascular risk factors, social variables, cognition, and depression measured at baseline, and stroke and MI occurring during follow-up., Results: Mean age was 69 (SD 10) years, 35% were male, 53% Hispanic, 74% hypertensive, and 16-24% diabetic. LogIL6 was associated with decline in BI over time (-0.13 points per year, 95% CI -0.24, -0.02) and marginally with baseline BI (-0.20, 95% CI -0.40, 0.01). LpPLA2 activity levels were associated with baseline BI (-0.36, 95% CI -0.68, -0.04) but not change over time, and LpPLA2 mass levels were not associated with either., Conclusion: In this large population-based study, higher serum inflammatory biomarker levels were associated with disability, even when adjusting for baseline covariates and stroke and MI occurring during follow-up., Competing Interests: Dr. Sacco receives grant support from the NIH, AHA, and Boehringer Ingelheim. Dr. Elkind receives compensation for providing consultative services for Biotelemetry/Cardionet, BMSPfizer Partnership, Boehringer-Ingelheim, and Sanofi-Regeneron; serves as an expert witness for Merck/Organon (Nuvaring and stroke), BMS-Sanofi Partnership (Plavix and stroke), and Hi-Tech (DMAA and stroke); serves on the National, Founders Affiliate, and New York City chapter boards of the American Heart Association/American Stroke Association; and receives royalties from UpToDate for chapters related to cryptogenic stroke. There are no patents, products in development or marketed products associated with this research to declare. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.

Purpose: To identify risk factors (RF) for diabetes within a multiethnic cohort and to examine whether race-ethnicity modified their effects., Methods: Participants in the Northern Manhattan Study without diabetes at baseline were studied from 1993 to 2014 (n=2430). Weibull regression models with interval censoring data were fit to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for incident diabetes. We tested for interactions between RF and race-ethnicity., Results: During a mean follow-up period of 11years, there were 449 diagnoses of diabetes. Being non-Hispanic black (HR 1.69 95% CI 1.11-2.59) or Hispanic (HR 2.25 95% CI 1.48-3.40) versus non-Hispanic white, and body mass index (BMI; HR 1.34 per SD 95% CI 1.21-1.49) were associated with greater risk of diabetes; high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HR 0.75 95% CI 0.66-0.86) was protective. There were interactions by race-ethnicity. In stratified models, the effects of BMI, current smoking, and C-reactive protein (CRP) on risk of diabetes differed by race-ethnicity (p for interaction <0.05). The effects were greater among non-Hispanic whites than non-Hispanic blacks and Hispanics., Conclusions: Although Hispanics and non-Hispanic blacks had a greater risk of diabetes than whites, there were variations by race-ethnicity in the association of BMI, smoking, and CRP with risk of diabetes. Unique approaches should be considered to reduce diabetes as traditional RF may not be as influential in minority populations., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background and Objectives: Various dietary strategies have been investigated to slow kidney function decline. However, it is unknown whether a Mediterranean diet, which has been associated with improved cardiovascular risk, is associated with change in kidney function., Design, Setting, Participants, & Measurements: This study used the Northern Manhattan Study, a prospective, multiethnic, observational cohort of participants who were stroke free at baseline. Data were collected between 1993 and 2008. Serum creatinine measurements were taken a mean 6.9 years apart. A baseline dietary questionnaire was extrapolated into a previously used 9-point scoring system (MeDi). The primary outcome was incident eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2)using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease formula. A secondary outcome was the upper quartile of annualized eGFR decline (≥ 2.5 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) per year). Conditional logistic regression models adjusted for demographics and baseline vascular risk factors., Results: Mean baseline age was 64 years, with 59% women and 65% Hispanics (N=900); mean baseline eGFR was 83.1 ml/min per 1.73 m(2). Incident eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) developed in 14% . In adjusted models, every 1-point increase in the MeDi score, indicating increasing adherence to a Mediterranean diet, was associated with decreased odds of incident eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) (odds ratio, 0.83; 95% confidence interval, 0.71 to 0.96) and decreased odds of being in the upper quartile of eGFR decline (odds ratio, 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.79 to 0.98)., Conclusions: A Mediterranean diet was associated with a reduced incidence of eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m(2) and upper quartile of eGFR decline in a multiethnic cohort., (Copyright © 2014 by the American Society of Nephrology.)

Background and Purpose: Interleukin-6 (IL-6) is a proinflammatory cytokine with known autoregulatory feedback mechanisms. We hypothesized that elevated high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) relative to IL-6 confers an increased risk of ischemic stroke (IS), and low hsCRP relative to IL-6 a decreased risk, for individuals in the prospective, multiethnic, population-based Northern Manhattan Study (NOMAS)., Methods: Serum hsCRP and IL-6 were measured in NOMAS participants at baseline. We created a trichotomized predictor based on the dominant biomarker in terms of quartiles: hsCRP-dominant, IL-6-dominant, and codominant groups. Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association between inflammatory biomarker group status and risk of incident IS., Results: Of 3298 participants, both hsCRP and IL-6 were available in 1656 participants (mean follow-up, 7.8 years; 113 incident IS). The hsCRP-dominant group had increased risk of IS (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.62; 95% confidence interval, 1.56-4.41) and the IL-6-dominant group had decreased risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.38; 95% confidence interval, 0.18-0.82) when compared with the referent group, after adjusting for potential confounders. Model fit was improved using the inflammation-dominant construct, over either biomarker alone., Conclusions: In this multiethnic cohort, when hsCRP-quartile was higher than IL-6 quartile, IS risk was increased, and conversely when IL-6 quartiles were elevated relative to hsCRP, IS risk was decreased. Construct validity requires confirmation in other cohorts.

Background and Purpose: Previous research in our cohort showed a delayed decline in functional status after first ischemic stroke. We compared the long-term trajectory of functional status before and after ischemic stroke., Methods: The Northern Manhattan Study contains a prospective, population-based study of stroke-free individuals age ≥40 years, followed for a median of 11 years. The Barthel index (BI), a commonly used measure of activities of daily living, was assessed annually. Generalized estimating equations were used to assess functional decline over time before stroke and beginning 6 months after stroke. Follow-up was censored at the time of recurrent stroke., Results: Among 3298 participants, 210 participants had an ischemic stroke during follow-up and had poststroke BI assessed. Mean age (±SD) was 77±9 years, 38% were men, 52% were Hispanic, 37% had diabetes, and 31% had coronary artery disease. There was no difference in rate of functional decline over time before and after stroke (P=0.51), with a decline of 0.96 BI points per year before stroke (P<0.0001) and 1.24 BI points after stroke (P=0.001). However, when stratified by insurance status, among those with Medicaid or no insurance, in a fully adjusted model, there was a difference in slope before and after stroke (P=0.04), with a decline of 0.58 BI points per year before stroke (P=0.02) and 1.94 BI points after stroke (P=0.001)., Conclusions: In this large, prospective, population-based study with long-term follow-up, there was a significantly steeper decline in functional status after ischemic stroke compared with before stroke among those with Medicaid or no insurance, after adjusting for confounders.

Background and Purpose: Diabetes increases stroke risk, but whether diabetes status immediately before stroke improves prediction and whether duration is important are less clear. We hypothesized that diabetes duration independently predicts ischemic stroke., Methods: Among 3298 stroke-free participants in the Northern Manhattan Study, baseline diabetes and age at diagnosis were determined. Incident diabetes was assessed annually (median, 9 years). Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CI for incident ischemic stroke using baseline diabetes, diabetes as a time-dependent covariate, and duration of diabetes as a time-varying covariate; models were adjusted for demographic and cardiovascular risk factors., Results: Mean age was 69 ± 10 years (52% Hispanic, 21% white, and 24% black); 22% had diabetes at baseline and 10% had development of diabetes. There were 244 ischemic strokes, and both baseline diabetes (HR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.9-3.3) and diabetes considered as a time-dependent covariate (HR, 2.4; 95% CI, 1.8-3.2) were similarly associated with stroke risk. Duration of diabetes was associated with ischemic stroke (adjusted HR, 1.03 per year with diabetes; 95% CI, 1.02-1.04). Compared to nondiabetic participants, those with diabetes for 0 to 5 years (adjusted HR, 1.7; 95% CI, 1.1-2.7), 5 to 10 years (adjusted HR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-3.0), and ≥ 10 years (adjusted HR, 3.2; 95% CI, 2.4-4.5) were at increased risk., Conclusions: Duration of diabetes is independently associated with ischemic stroke risk adjusting for risk factors. The risk increases 3% each year, and triples with diabetes ≥ 10 years.

Objective: To determine the association between a composite measure of serological test results for common infections (Chlamydia pneumoniae, Helicobacter pylori, cytomegalovirus, and herpes simplex virus 1 and 2) and stroke risk in a prospective cohort study., Design: Prospective cohort followed up longitudinally for median 8 years., Setting: Northern Manhattan Study. Patients Randomly selected stroke-free participants from a multiethnic urban community. Main Outcome Measure Incident stroke and other vascular events., Results: All 5 infectious serological results were available from baseline samples in 1625 participants (mean [SD] age, 68.4 [10.1] years; 64.9% women). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate associations of each positive serological test result with stroke. Individual parameter estimates were then combined into a weighted index of infectious burden and used to calculate hazard ratios and confidence intervals for association with risk of stroke and other outcomes, adjusted for risk factors. Each individual infection was positively, though not significantly, associated with stroke risk after adjusting for other risk factors. The infectious burden index was associated with an increased risk of all strokes (adjusted hazard ratio per standard deviation, 1.39; 95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.90) after adjusting for demographics and risk factors. Results were similar after excluding those with coronary disease (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.05-2.13) and adjusting for inflammatory biomarkers., Conclusions: A quantitative weighted index of infectious burden was associated with risk of first stroke in this cohort. Future studies are needed to confirm these findings and to further define optimal measures of infectious burden as a stroke risk factor.