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• Calls for NYC power outages occur unevenly throughout the year and mostly during the hotter months. • Power outage calls also occur in clustered spatial patterns in the city. • High power outage call areas are areas of under-resourced, heat vulnerable populations. • The NYC's current electricity transition could exacerbate circumstances for some neighborhoods. • Publicly available power outage data at high resolution are needed to identify causality and impact. Electrical power outages are of increasing interest to US urban scholars, government officials and stakeholders, as they have increased in number and duration with significant health and economic, among other, impacts. This analysis examines reports of power outages in New York City in relation to socioeconomic and health characteristics of neighborhoods. Using the city's 311-call database we examine complaint calls for power outages from 2014 to 2022. While 311-calls for power outages occur all year long, volume trended higher during the warmer months (June, July and August), and as minimum daily temperatures exceeded 20 °C (68°F), the number of calls increased dramatically. Spatial clusters of high call areas were in Census tracts with high energy burdens, lower-income households, and high percentages of people of color. Furthermore, we found the higher call areas were associated with higher vulnerability to heat-exacerbated deaths. As climate change is expected to raise temperatures and increase the frequency and intensity of heat waves around the world, and as power outages are becoming more common, these findings will help to provide guidance for adaptation and energy reliability policies in New York City and have implications for other cities globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives. We sought to project future impacts of climate change on summer heat-related premature deaths in the New York City metropolitan region. Methods. Current and future climates were simulated over the northeastern United States with a global-to-regional climate modeling system. Summer heat-related premature deaths in the 1990s and 2050s were estimated by using a range of scenarios and approaches to modeling acclimatization (e.g., increased use of air conditioning, gradual physiological adaptation). Results. Projected regional increases in heat-related premature mortality by the 2050s ranged from 47% to 95%, with a mean 70% increase compared with the 1990s. Acclimatization effects reduced regional increases in summer heat-related premature mortality by about 25%. Local impacts varied considerably across the region, with urban counties showing greater numbers of deaths and smaller percentage increases than less-urbanized counties. Conclusions. Although considerable uncertainty exists in climate forecasts and future health vulnerability, the range of projections we developed suggests that by midcentury, acclimatization may not completely mitigate the effects of climate change in the New York City metropolitan region, which would result in an overall net increase in heat-related premature mortality. (Am J Public Health. 2007;97:2028-2034. doi:10.2105/AJPH.2006.102947) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Land use and pollutant emission changes can have significant impacts on air quality, regional climate, and human health. Here we describe a modeling study aimed at quantifying the potential effects of extensive changes in urban land cover in the New York City (NYC), USA metropolitan region on surface meteorology and ozone (O3) concentrations. The SLEUTH land-use change model was used to extrapolate urban land cover over this region from “present-day” (ca. 1990) conditions to a future year (ca. 2050), and these projections were subsequently integrated into meteorological and air quality simulations. The development of the future-year land-use scenario followed the narrative of the “A2” scenario described by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), but was restricted to the greater NYC area. The modeling system consists of the Penn State/NCAR MM5 mesoscale meteorological model; the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernal Emissions processing system; and the US EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality model, and simulations were performed for two 18-day episodes, one near-past and one future. Our results suggest that extensive urban growth in the NYC metropolitan area has the potential to increase afternoon near-surface temperatures by more than 0. 6°C and planetary boundary layer (PBL) heights by more than 150m, as well as decrease water vapor mixing ratio by more than 0. 6gkg−1, across the NYC metropolitan area, with the areal extent of all of these changes generally coinciding with the area of increased urbanization. On the other hand, the impacts of these land use changes on ozone concentrations are more complex. Simulation results indicate that future changes in urbanization, with emissions held constant, may lead to increases in episode-average O3 levels by about 1–5ppb, and episode-maximum 8h O3 levels by more than 6ppb across much of the NYC area. However, spatial patterns of ozone changes are heterogeneous and also indicate the presence of areas with decreasing ozone concentrations. When anthropogenic emissions were increased to be consistent with the extensive urbanization in the greater NYC area, the O3 levels increased in outer counties of the metropolitan region but decreased in others, including coastal Connecticut and the Long Island Sound area. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]