1. New York State's Transition to Stability: The Demographic Outlook.
- Author
-
Rand Corp., Santa Monica, CA. and Morrison, Peter A.
- Abstract
The paper highlights economic and social problems that current population trends in New York State are likely to create. Major features of population change in New York are: (1) transition from steady growth to near stability; (2) an end to metropolitan growth statewide and the onset of decline in four of the state's ten Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas; (3) intensification of growth in selected nonmetropolitan areas; and (4) wide variation in the rate of population change for different age groups. Changing distribution of age groups among New York State's counties is examined in light of fiscal and political accommodations which will be required. For example, the decreasing number of children of school age will affect school and college enrollments, whereas the increasing number of elderly persons will require additional social services. Two widely held beliefs about migration are examined--one that low-income migrants go to major urban centers as welfare seekers, and the other that rural-urban migration transplants rural poverty to an urban setting. Findings indicate that both beliefs are erroneous. It is concluded that demographic analysis has numerous specific applications at the state level and should be taken into consideration by policy makers whether they formulate policy as problems come up, project trends into the future and devise social mechanisms accordingly, or designate explicit future goals and devise plans to achieve them. Charts, tables, and maps are included in the document. (Author/DB)
- Published
- 1977