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The Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV) is a risk assessment instrument for adolescents that estimates the risk of multiple adverse outcomes. Prior research into its predictive validity is limited to a handful of studies conducted with the START:AV pilot version and often by the instrument's developers. The present study examines the START:AV's field validity in a secure youth care sample in the Netherlands. Using a prospective design, we investigated whether the total scores, lifetime history, and the final risk judgments of 106 START:AVs predicted inpatient incidents during a 4-month follow-up. Final risk judgments and lifetime history predicted multiple adverse outcomes, including physical aggression, institutional violations, substance use, self-injury, and victimization. The predictive validity of the total scores was significant only for physical aggression and institutional violations. Hence, the short-term predictive validity of the START:AV for inpatient incidents in a residential youth care setting was partially demonstrated and the START:AV final risk judgments can be used to guide treatment planning and decision-making regarding furlough or discharge in this setting.

There is emerging evidence that the performance of risk assessment instruments is weaker when used for clinical decision-making than for research purposes. For instance, research has found lower agreement between evaluators when the risk assessments are conducted during routine practice. We examined the field interrater reliability of the Short-Term Assessment of Risk and Treatability: Adolescent Version (START:AV). Clinicians in a Dutch secure youth care facility completed START:AV assessments as part of the treatment routine. Consistent with previous literature, interrater reliability of the items and total scores was lower than previously reported in non-field studies. Nevertheless, moderate to good interrater reliability was found for final risk judgments on most adverse outcomes. Field studies provide insights into the actual performance of structured risk assessment in real-world settings, exposing factors that affect reliability. This information is relevant for those who wish to implement structured risk assessment with a level of reliability that is defensible considering the high stakes., (© 2021 The Authors. Behavioral Sciences & The Law published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Victim-offender contact has been studied extensively in prisons, but research on contact between victims and mentally disordered offenders in forensic mental health settings is lacking. Therefore, an exploratory study was conducted on contact between victims and offenders in four Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. These offenders have committed serious (sexually) violent offenses, for which they could not be held fully responsible due to severe psychopathology. During the mandatory treatment, it is possible for offenders and their victims to engage in contact with each other if both parties agree to this. To explore the conditions under which this contact is suitable, we interviewed 35 social workers about their experiences in 57 cases from four Dutch forensic psychiatric hospitals. Findings demonstrated that, according to the social workers, no type of offense or psychopathology were obvious exclusion criteria for victim-offender contact. Social workers described offenders' problem awareness, stable psychiatric condition, and ability to keep to agreements as important factors that enable victim-offender contact. Implications and suggestions for future research are provided., (Copyright © 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

The body of evidence that the working alliance is associated with positive outcomes for mandated clients is growing. The aim of this research was to investigate the influence of several characteristics of probation officers (POs) and offenders on the course of the working alliance during probation supervision. This study examined the patterns on the four alliance subscales: Trust, Bond, Goals-Restrictions, and Reactance of the Working Alliance With Mandated Clients Inventory (WAMCI) in 201 offenders and their 137 POs. Three patterns on each alliance subscale were found: deteriorating, improving, and stable. Multinomial logistic analysis revealed that change of POs and the preference of the PO to maintain rules were associated with a deteriorating Trust pattern. From the perspective of the offenders, being motivated to take part in supervision was associated with a stable pattern on every alliance subscale, but having problems with substance use increased the likelihood of a deteriorating pattern on every alliance subscale.

Previous research has shown that female persistent offenders have multiple psychiatric and psychosocial problems, such as substance use disorders, other mental disorders, financial problems and housing problems. The present study examined recidivism and predictors of recidivism in a sample of 74 Dutch female high level persistent offenders who had been subjected to a special court order for persistent offenders, called ISD [Inrichting Stelselmatige Daders]. The criminal records were studied to gain insight in the criminal charges against women after release from the ISD. Results showed that 43% of the persistent female offenders had registered justice contacts within one year after release, of which the majority concerned non-violent property offences. However, the number of offences was found to be significantly reduced after their release. No offence-related, demographic, substance-related, psychiatric or personal history characteristics were found to be predictive for general recidivism., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

To comply with the need for a more evidence based risk assessment and management in forensic mental health, an outcome monitor is being developed in the Dutch forensic psychiatric centre Van der Hoeven Kliniek in Utrecht, the Hoeven Outcome Monitor (HOM). Conform evidence based medicine (EBM) guidelines, the HOM is subdivided into three consecutive stages, (1) the evaluation stage, (2) the aetiology stage and (3) the implementation stage. In this article an account is provided for the design of the evaluation stage. To account for predicaments in previous research that pertain to a lack of uniformity and disregard of specific context- and patient-related characteristics, a macro-, meso- and micro-treatment evaluation instrument is developed. This instrument provides for the first step to build an evidence base for specific interventions and treatments in forensic psychiatry., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Empirical studies have rarely investigated the association between improvements on dynamic risk and protective factors for violence during forensic psychiatric treatment and reduced recidivism after discharge. The present study aimed to evaluate the effects of treatment progress in risk and protective factors on violent recidivism. For a sample of 108 discharged forensic psychiatric patients pre- and posttreatment assessments of risk (HCR-20) and protective factors (SAPROF) were compared. Changes were related to violent recidivism at different follow-up times after discharge. Improvements on risk and protective factors during treatment showed good predictive validity for abstention from violence for short- (1 year) as well as long-term (11 years) follow-up. This study demonstrates the sensitivity of the HCR-20 and the SAPROF to change and shows improvements on dynamic risk and protective factors are associated with lower violent recidivism long after treatment.

In this retrospective study, the interrater reliability and predictive validity of 2 risk assessment instruments for sexual violence are presented. The SVR-20, an instrument for structured professional judgment, and the Static-99, an actuarial risk assessment instrument, were coded from file information of 122 sex offenders who were admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1974 and 1996 (average follow-up period 140 months). Recidivism data (reconvictions) from the Ministry of Justice were related to the risk assessments. The base rate for sexual recidivism was 39%, for nonsexual violent offenses 46%, and for general offenses 74%. Predictive validity of the SVR-20 was good (total score: r = .50, AUC = .80; final risk judgment: r = .60, AUC = .83), of the Static-99 moderate (total score: r = .38, AUC =.71; risk category: r = .30, AUC = .66). The SVR-20 final risk judgment was a significantly better predictor of sexual recidivism than the Static-99 risk category.

This study examined the role of the Psychopathy Checklist-Revised (PCL-R; R. D. Hare, 1991) and sexual deviance scores in predicting recidivism in a sample of 94 convicted rapists involuntarily admitted to a Dutch forensic psychiatric hospital between 1975 and 1996. The predictive utility of grouping offenders based on the combination of psychopathy and sexual deviance was also investigated. Measures were coded from pre-release institutional records. Recidivism (reconviction) data were retrieved from the Judicial Documentation Register of the Ministry of Justice and were related to PCL-R and sexual deviance scores. The follow-up period after release ranged up to 23.5 years (M = 11.8 years). Base rates for sexual, violent nonsexual, violent (including sexual), and general recidivism were 34%, 47%, 55%, and 73%, respectively. For all types of offending, offenders scoring high on the PCL-R (> or = 26) were significantly more often reconvicted than other offenders. The sexual deviance score was found to be a significant predictor of sexual reconviction. Survival analyses provided considerable evidence that psychopathic sex offenders with sexual deviant preferences are at substantially greater risk of committing new sexual offenses than psychopathic offenders without deviant preferences or nonpsychopathic offenders with or without sexual deviance. The findings are discussed in terms of their practical and clinical implications.