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Background: The prevalence of duodenal carcinoma is much higher in familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) than in the background population, and duodenal adenomatosis is found in most polyposis patients. Aims: To describe the long term natural history of duodenal adenomatosis in FAP and evaluate if cancer prophylactic surveillance of the duodenum is indicated. Methods: A prospective five nation study was carried out in the Nordic countries and the Netherlands. Patients: A total of 368 patients were examined by gastroduodenoscopy at two year intervals during the period 1990-2001. Results: At the first endoscopy, 238 (65%) patients had duodenal adenomas at a median age of 38 years. Median follow up was 7.6 years. The cumulative incidence of adenomatosis at age 70 years was 90% (95% confidence interval (CI) 79-100%), and of Spigelman stage IV 52% (95% CI 28-76%). The probability of an advanced Spigelman score increased during the study period (p<0.0001) due to an increasing number and size of adenomas. Two patients had asymptomatic duodenal carcinoma at their first endoscopy while four developed carcinoma during the study at a median age of 52 years (range 26- 58). The cumulative incidence rate of cancer was 4.5% at age 57 years (95% CI 0.1-8.9%) and the risk was higher in patients with Spigelman stage IV at their first endoscopy than in those with stages 0-III (p<0.01). Conclusions: The natural course of duodenal adenomatosis has now been described in detail. The high incidence and increasing severity of duodenal adenomatosis with age justifies prophylactic examination, and a programme is presented for upper gastrointestinal endoscopic surveillance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Duodenal adenomatosis in familial adenomatous polyposis results in a cancer risk that increases with age. Endoscopic surveillance has been recommended, but the effect has not yet been documented. The aim of this study was to present the results of long-term duodenal surveillance and to evaluate the risk of cancer development., Method: Follow up of patients in a previous study with gastroduodenoscopy in 1990-2010. Statistical analysis included the χ(2) test, actuarial method and Kaplan-Meier analysis., Results: Among 304 patients, 261 (86%) had more than one endoscopy. The median follow up was 14 (interquartile range, 9-17) years. The cumulative lifetime risk of duodenal adenomatosis was 88% (95% CI, 84-93), and of Spigelman stage IV was 35% (95% CI, 25-45). The Spigelman stage improved in 32 (12%) patients, remained unchanged in 88 (34%) and worsened in 116 (44%). Twenty (7%) patients had duodenal cancer at a median age of 56 (range, 44-82) years. The cumulative cancer incidence was 18% at 75 years of age (95% CI, 8-28) and increased with increasing Spigelman stage at the index endoscopy to 33% in Spigelman stage IV (P < 0.0001). The median overall survival was 6.4 years (95% CI, 1.7 to not estimated): 8 years after a screen-detected cancer vs 0.8 years (95% CI, 0.03-1.7) after a symptomatic cancer (P < 0.0001). The location of the mutation in the APC gene did not influence the risk of developing Spigelman stage IV (P = 0.46) or duodenal cancer (P = 0.83)., Conclusion: The risk of duodenal cancer in familial adenomatous polyposis is considerable, and regular surveillance and cancer prophylactic surgery result in a significantly improved prognosis., (© 2011 The Authors. Colorectal Disease © 2011 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.)