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Counterfactual estimates of excess deaths in Russian regions in 2020 are compared with actual deaths to measure the initial COVID impact. COVID is a real threat to high labor productivity regions and those with relatively bigger defense sectors. Corruption is surprisingly found to lower excess deaths. Legacy Soviet human capital and early Putin era democracy don't appear to impact excess deaths. Urban males are most threatened with an even greater negative impact on the economy as COVID moves into working age brackets in the medium term. Living in rural areas and/or in regions far from Moscow was relatively safer in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Applying a stochastic industrial production function at the aggregate city level for 72 cities in a single Russian region reveals industry in a variety of cities is quite similar in the ability to produce gross industrial output efficiently during the early transition era 1993–95. Weak evidence is found for cities becoming more diverse in industrial performance during the period. Using additional inefficiency impact variables, some evidence was found for a more diversified industrial base and more locally retained profit tax revenue improving efficiency among cities in a given year, suggesting more diversified cities may perform better than a one-company town in the transition era. The hypothesis of an urban agglomeration effect improving efficiency found in the literature was rejected using distance and population density variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]