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The last 20 years has seen a significant series of outbreaks of Buruli/Bairnsdale Ulcer (BU), caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans, in temperate south-eastern Australia (state of Victoria). Here, the prevailing view of M. ulcerans as an aquatic pathogen has been questioned by recent research identifying native wildlife as potential terrestrial reservoirs of infection; specifically, tree-dwelling common ringtail and brushtail possums. In that previous work, sampling of environmental possum faeces detected a high prevalence of M. ulcerans DNA in established endemic areas for human BU on the Bellarine Peninsula, compared with non-endemic areas. Here, we report research from an emergent BU focus recently identified on the Mornington Peninsula, confirming associations between human BU and the presence of the aetiological agent in possum faeces, detected by real-time PCR targeting M. ulcerans IS2404, IS2606 and KR. Mycobacterium ulcerans DNA was detected in 20/216 (9.3%) ground collected ringtail possum faecal samples and 4/6 (66.6%) brushtail possum faecal samples. The distribution of the PCR positive possum faecal samples and human BU cases was highly focal: there was a significant non-random cluster of 16 M. ulcerans positive possum faecal sample points detected by spatial scan statistics (P<0.0001) within a circle of radius 0.42 km, within which were located the addresses of 6/12 human cases reported from the area to date; moreover, the highest sample PCR signal strength (equivalent to ≥106 organisms per gram of faeces) was found in a sample point located within this cluster radius. Corresponding faecal samples collected from closely adjacent BU-free areas were predominantly negative. Possums may be useful sentinels to predict endemic spread of human BU in Victoria, for public health planning. Further research is needed to establish whether spatial associations represent evidence of direct or indirect transmission between possums and humans, and the mechanism by which this may occur. Author Summary: Mycobacterium ulcerans causes the disfiguring human skin disease Buruli ulcer (BU). The mechanism of transmission and reservoir for human infection remain unknown. In previous research, we reported the detection of M. ulcerans DNA in the faeces of possums (small tree-dwelling marsupials) in an area of South-East Australia (the Bellarine peninsula) where the largest recorded outbreak of human BU has been in progress for the last decade. The current study was carried out in a new outbreak area (the Mornington peninsula), and describes the detection of M. ulcerans DNA in possum faeces collected from the ground, in locations which correspond closely with the addresses of human BU cases. The association of new human BU cases with areas where M. ulcerans positive possum faeces are found contributes further evidence to the possible role of possums as an environmental reservoir of infection. Possums may be useful sentinel animals to monitor the spread of BU in Australia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Buruli ulcer (BU) is a neglected tropical disease caused by infection of subcutaneous tissue with Mycobacterium ulcerans. BU is commonly reported across rural regions of Central and West Africa but has been increasing dramatically in temperate southeast Australia around the major metropolitan city of Melbourne, with most disease transmission occurring in the summer months. Previous research has shown that Australian native possums are reservoirs of M. ulcerans and that they shed the bacteria in their fecal material (excreta). Field surveys show that locales where possums harbor M. ulcerans overlap with human cases of BU, raising the possibility of using possum excreta surveys to predict the risk of disease occurrence in humans. Methods: We thus established a highly structured 12 month possum excreta surveillance program across an area of 350 km² in the Mornington Peninsula area 70 km south of Melbourne, Australia. The primary objective of our study was to assess using statistical modeling if M. ulcerans surveillance of possum excreta provided useful information for predicting future human BU case locations. Results: Over two sampling campaigns in summer and winter, we collected 2,282 possum excreta specimens of which 11% were PCR positive for M. ulcerans-specific DNA. Using the spatial scanning statistical tool SaTScan, we observed non-random, co-correlated clustering of both M. ulcerans positive possum excreta and human BU cases. We next trained a statistical model with the Mornington Peninsula excreta survey data to predict the future likelihood of human BU cases occurring in the region. By observing where human BU cases subsequently occurred, we show that the excreta model performance was superior to a null model trained using the previous year's human BU case incidence data (AUC 0.66 vs 0.55). We then used data unseen by the excreta-informed model from a new survey of 661 possum excreta specimens in Geelong, a geographically separate BU endemic area to the southwest of Melbourne, to prospectively predict the location of human BU cases in that region. As for the Mornington Peninsula, the excreta-based BU prediction model outperformed the null model (AUC 0.75 vs 0.50) and pinpointed specific locations in Geelong where interventions could be deployed to interrupt disease spread. Conclusions: This study highlights the One Health nature of BU by confirming a quantitative relationship between possum excreta shedding of M. ulcerans and humans developing BU. The excreta survey-informed modeling we have described will be a powerful tool for the efficient targeting of public health responses to stop BU. Funding: This research was supported by the National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia and the Victorian Government Department of Health (GNT1152807 and GNT1196396). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]