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Understanding and assessing the spatiotemporal patterns in crop-specific phosphorus (P) fertilizer management is crucial for promoting crop yield and mitigating environmental problems. The existing P fertilizer dataset, derived from sales data, depicts an average application rate on total cropland at the county level but overlooks cross-crop variations. Conversely, the survey-based dataset offers crop-specific application details at the state level yet lacks inter-state variability. By reconciling these two datasets, we developed long-term gridded maps to characterize crop-specific P fertilizer application rates, timing, and methods across the contiguous US at a resolution of 4 km × 4 km from 1850 to 2022. We found that P fertilizer application rate on fertilized area in the US increased from 0.9 g P m-2 yr-1 in 1940 to 1.9 g P m-2 yr-1 in 2022, with substantial variations among crops. However, approximately 40 % of cropland nationwide has remained unfertilized in the recent decade. The hotspots for P fertilizer use have shifted from the southeastern and eastern US to the Midwest and the Great Plains over the past century, reflecting changes in cropland area, crop choices, and P fertilizer use across different crops. Pre-planting (fall and spring) and broadcast application are prevalent among corn, soybean, and cotton in the Midwest and the Southeast, indicating a high P loss risk in these regions. In contrast, wheat and barley in the Great Plains receive the most intensive P fertilizer at planting and via non-broadcast application. The P fertilizer management dataset developed in this study can advance our comprehension in agricultural P budget and facilitate the refinement in P fertilizer best management practices to optimize crop yield and reduce P loss. Datasets are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10700822 (Cao et al., 2024). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While spatial heterogeneity of riverine nitrogen (N) loading is predominantly driven by the magnitude of basin‐wide anthropogenic N input, the temporal dynamics of N loading are closely related to the amount and timing of precipitation. However, existing studies do not disentangle the contributions of heavy precipitation versus non‐heavy precipitation predicted by future climate scenarios. Here, we explore the potential responses of N loading from the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin to precipitation changes using a well‐calibrated hydro‐ecological model and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate projections under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. With present agricultural production and management practices, N loading could increase up to 30% by the end of the 21st century under future climate scenarios, half of which would be driven by heavy precipitation. Particularly, the RCP8.5 scenario, in which heavy precipitation and drought events become more frequent, would increase N loading disproportionately to projected increases in river discharge. N loading in spring would contribute 41% and 51% of annual N loading increase under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, most of which is related to higher N yield due to increases in heavy precipitation. Anthropogenic N inputs would be increasingly susceptible to leaching loss in the Midwest and the Mississippi Alluvial Plain regions. Our results imply that future climate change alone, including more frequent and intense precipitation extremes, would increase N loading and intensify the eutrophication of the Gulf of Mexico over this coming century. More effective nutrient management interventions are needed to reverse this trend. Plain Language Summary: Future climate change is expected to alter nutrient transport from land to rivers, which will have impacts on coastal ecosystems. The impacts of future precipitation changes on nitrogen (N) loading, however, remain unclear. Based upon a well‐tested hydro‐ecological model, this study separates the roles of future heavy precipitation, non‐heavy precipitation, and no‐precipitation days in affecting N leaching loss and predicts the changes in N loading to the Gulf of Mexico. N loading is projected to increase by 30% under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) by the end of the 21st century, half of which is likely driven by heavy precipitation. Future increases in spring heavy precipitation likely result in higher N leaching loss and enhance N loading. Our results indicate that more effective nutrient reduction efforts will be needed to reach the reduction goals of N loading and hypoxia extent in the Gulf of Mexico. Key Points: We examine the responses of nitrogen (N) loading from the Mississippi Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB) to future climate changesN loading from the MARB could increase by 30% under future climate scenarios, and half of the increase would be driven by heavy precipitationAnthropogenic N input would be increasingly susceptible to leaching loss in the Midwest and Mississippi Alluvial Plain under future climate [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We synthesized county-level crop N budget and climate stress data during 1981-2016. • The U.S. corn N surplus dynamics are strongly regulated by climatic stresses. • A 51% increase in U.S. corn N surplus was associated with extremely hot conditions. • N surplus increases of 47% (dry) and 20% (wet) were related to extreme water stress. • The Midwest and the Northern Great Plains are hotspots of climate-driven N surplus. Increasing extreme climate conditions present significant threats to crop nitrogen (N) management and environmental conservation in the United States. Previous studies have examined the impacts of extreme climate on crop production but often overlooked its impacts on N loss from agricultural areas to the environment. Here we examined the relationship between county-level N surplus (the part of N that is not recovered by crops) and extreme climate conditions for corn in the U.S. during 1981–2016. We adopted multi-source long-term datasets of corn N budget and growing season (defined from May to August) maximum temperature and precipitation for each corn-planting county. Compared with the long-term N surplus trend, we found an increase of 51% and 47% in corn N surplus associated with extremely high temperature and extremely low precipitations, respectively. A moderate N surplus increase (20%) was associated with extremely high precipitations, while an N surplus decrease of 14% was shown to be related to extremely low temperatures. Across the U.S., the Midwest and the Northern Great Plains were identified as N surplus hotspots when extreme climate conditions occur. As the major corn-planting region, the Midwest accounted for 35% of the national extreme county-year samples but yielded 68% of the national total N surplus associated with extreme climate conditions. Our results highlighted the urgency of understanding the impacts of extreme climate conditions on crop nutrient losses and identifying the effective intervention practices to adapt to more frequent climate extremes in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]