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Guest worker programs are often criticized for worker maltreatment. Income earned could, however, benefit migrants. I examine the impact of the Bracero Program, a guest worker program between Mexico and the United States in the mid-20th century, on human capital investments. I use proximity to recruitment centers as an instrument for migration. The opening and closing of centers, due to changes in international bargaining power, provides exogenous variation. Estimates show that bracero migration caused increases in primary school enrollments, the provision of primary schools, and spending on education by state governments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigate the impact of fertility and demographic factors on the Great Mexico–USA immigration by assessing the causal effects of sibship size and structure on migration decisions within the household. We use a rich demographic survey on the population of Mexico and exploit presumably exogenous variation in family size induced by biological fertility and infertility shocks. We further exploit cross-sibling differences to identify the effects of birth order, siblings' sex, and siblings' ages on migration. We find that large families per se do not boost offspring's emigration. However, the likelihood of migrating is not equally distributed within a household. It is higher for sons and decreases sharply with birth order. The female migration disadvantage also varies with sibling composition by age and gender. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we analyze the role of expected labor and marriage market returns as determinants of the college enrollment decisions of Mexican high school graduates. Moreover, we investigate whether the (relative) weights of these factors differ by gender. We use data on individuals’ expectations regarding future labor market outcomes which we directly elicited from the youths, and two different measures of marriage market returns. First, marriage market returns are proxied by the (net-)supply of potential partners in the youths’ local marriage markets. Second, we use data which elicits youths’ beliefs about their future spouse's earnings conditional on their own education level. We find that labor market as well as marriage market returns are important determinants of the college enrollment decision. However, boys’ and girls’ preferences differ in terms of the relative role of the two determinants, in that the relative weight of labor market versus marriage market returns is larger for boys than for girls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this study was to measure willingness-to-accept (WTA) reductions in risks for HIV and other sexually transmitted infections (STI) using conditional economic incentives (CEI) among men who have sex with men (MSM), including male sex workers (MSW) in Mexico City. A survey experiment was conducted with 1,745 MSM and MSW (18-25 years of age) who received incentive offers to decide first whether to accept monthly prevention talks and STI testing; and then a second set of offers to accept to stay free of STIs (verified by quarterly biological testing). The survey used random-starting-point and iterative offers. WTA was estimated with a maximum likelihood double-bounded dichotomous choice model. The average acceptance probabilities were: 73.9 % for the monthly model, and 80.4 % for the quarterly model. The incentive-elasticity of participation in the monthly model was 0.222, and 0.515 in the quarterly model. For a combination program with monthly prevention talks, and staying free of curable STI, the implied WTA was USD$ 288 per person per year, but it was lower for MSW: USD$ 156 per person per year. Thus, some of the populations at highest risk of HIV infection (MSM and MSW) seem well disposed to participate in a CEI program for HIV and STI prevention in Mexico. The average WTA estimate is within the range of feasible allocations for prevention in the local context. Given the potential impact, Mexico, a leader in conditional cash transfers for human development and poverty reduction, could extend that successful model to targeted HIV/STI prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the determinants of interstate migration flows in Mexico for the period between 1985 and 2005. The aim is to explore internal changes in the Mexican economy as a result of the impact of trade and financial liberalization to identify factors contributing to or deterring migration flows. Internal migration is modelled using extended spatial gravity models that are then properly estimated using Poisson estimation techniques. The findings suggest a structural break in terms of a reduction of interstate migration flows in the post-NAFTA period. The evidence suggests that much of this effect could be attributed to higher levels in the indicators of trade liberalization, which appear to also offset the expected effects of wage differentials. RÉSUMÉ La présente communication se penche sur les facteurs déterminants des flux migratoires entre états, au Mexique, au cours de la période de 1985 à 2005. Son objet est l'examen de changements internes survenus dans l'économie du Mexique à la suite de l'impact de la libéralisation commerciale et financière, afin d'identifier des facteurs contribuant aux flux migratoires, ou les dissuadant. On procède à la modélisation de la migration interne en utilisant des modèles à gravité spatiale étendus, dont on effectue ensuite une estimation correcte, en appliquant les techniques d'estimation de poisson. Les résultats permettent d'en conclure une rupture structurelle sous forme d'une réduction des flux migratoires entre états au cours de la période post-NAFTA. Les documents à l'appui permettent d'affirmer que cet effet pourrait être attribué, dans une grande mesure, à des niveaux supérieurs dans les indicateurs de la libéralisation commerciale, qui semblent compenser, en outre, les effets imprévus des écarts salariaux. EXTRACTO Este estudio examina la determinación de los flujos de migración interestatal de Méjico entre 1985 y 2005. El propósito es explorar los cambios internos en la economía mejicana como resultado del impacto de la liberalización comercial y financiera, para identificar factores que contribuyen a, u obstaculizan, los flujos de migración. La migración interna se modela utilizando modelos extendidos de gravitación espacial que luego se estiman apropiadamente aplicando técnicas de estimación de Poisson. Los descubrimientos apuntan hacia una ruptura estructural en términos de la reducción de los flujos de migración interestatal en el período post-NAFTA. La evidencia sugiere que gran parte de este efecto podría atribuirse a niveles más altos en los indicadores de liberalización comercial, que también parecen compensar los efectos esperados de los diferenciales de sueldos. 摘要 : 本文研究了1985到2005年间墨西哥州际迁移的影响因素。目的在于通过探索贸易和金融自由化对墨西哥经济内部变化的影响 , 找到促进或者抑制国内迁移的因素。先使用拓展的空间引力模型对国内迁移进行建模 , 然后使用泊松估计方法进行准确估计。结果发现国内迁移呈现结构性断层—— 在后NAFTA时代州际迁移减少。有证据表明 , 在很大程度上 , 更大的贸易自由度导致了这一现象 , 它似乎还改变了工资差异的预期效果。 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we estimate the effect of the Mexican conditional cash transfer programme, Oportunidades, on transfers, savings and consumption for treated households. We find positive effects on consumption of non-durable and durable goods, an increase in savings coupled with a drop in the number and values of loans, and a reduction of in-kind transfers received by households in treatment areas. These results are consistent with the existing evidence that conditional cash transfer programmes have beneficial effects in both the short and medium term, but that they partly crowd out private transfers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the impact of migration on educational attainment in rural Mexico. Using historical migration rates to instrument for current migration, we find evidence of a significant negative effect of migration on schooling attendance and attainment. IV-censored ordered probits show that living in a migrant household lowers the chances of boys completing junior high school and of boys and girls completing high school. We find that the observed decrease in schooling of 16- to 18-year-olds is accounted for by current migration of boys and increased housework for girls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent empirical studies of the determinants of multinational activity across countries have found overwhelming support for a horizontal rather than a vertical model of foreign direct investment (FDI). They all use US or other developed country data. This paper, in contrast, uses a detailed industry-level data set on FDI in a relatively skilled-labor and capital scarce country, Mexico, to shed light on the determinants of FDI between largely dissimilar countries. The results indicate considerably more support for a comparative advantage motive for FDI, although a market access motive is present as well. The correlation between skill differences and FDI is positive in all industries, but when differences are large, FDI flows into sectors that are intensive in total labor, regardless of skill level. The concentration of multinational activity in (unskilled) labor intensive industries suggests a potential for spillover effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal of Seguro Popular (SP) in Mexico was to improve the financial protection of the uninsured population against excessive health expenditures. This paper estimates the impact of SP on catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), as well as out-of-pocket (OOP) health expenditures, from two different sources. First, we use the SP Impact Evaluation Survey (2005–2006), and compare the instrumental variables (IV) results with the experimental benchmark. Then, we use the same IV methods with the National Health and Nutrition Survey (ENSANUT 2006). We estimate naïve models, assuming exogeneity, and contrast them with IV models that take advantage of the specific SP implementation mechanisms for identification. The IV models estimated included two-stage least squares (2SLS), bivariate probit, and two-stage residual inclusion (2SRI) models. Instrumental variables estimates resulted in comparable estimates against the “gold standard.” Instrumental variables estimates indicate a reduction of 54% in catastrophic expenditures at the national level. SP beneficiaries also had lower expenditures on outpatient and medicine expenditures. The selection-corrected protective effect is found not only in the limited experimental dataset, but also at the national level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Does access to off-farm income complement or compete with agricultural production? This article explores the effect of off-farm income on agricultural production activities, using data from the 2003 Mexico National Rural Household Survey. We first discuss the theoretical conditions under which access to off-farm income may influence production in an agricultural household model. Instrumental-variable (IV) estimation methods are then used to test whether agricultural production activities, technologies, and input use differ between households with and without access to off-farm income. We find that off-farm income has a negative effect on agricultural output and the use of family labor on the farm, but a positive impact on the demand for purchased inputs. There is also a slight efficiency gain in households with access to off-farm income. Findings offer insights into how household production evolves as rural households increasingly engage in off-farm income activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]