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We examined the effect of tobacco control policies in Mexico on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths using the MexicoSimSmokemodel. The model is based on the previously developedSimSmokesimulation model of tobacco control policy, and uses population size, smoking rates and tobacco control policy data for Mexico. It assesses, individually, and in combination, the effect of six tobacco control policies on smoking prevalence and smoking-related deaths. Policies included: cigarette excise taxes, smoke-free laws, anti-smoking public education campaigns, marketing restrictions, access to tobacco cessation treatments and enforcement against tobacco sales youth. The model estimates that, if Mexico were to adopt strong tobacco control policies compared to current policy levels, smoking prevalence could be reduced by 30% in the next decade and by 50% by 2053; an additional 470,000 smoking-related premature deaths could be averted over the next 40 years. The greatest impact on smoking and smoking-related deaths would be achieved by raising excise taxes on cigarettes from 55% to at least 70% of the retail price, followed by strong youth access enforcement and access to cessation treatments. Implementing tobacco control policies in Mexico could reduce smoking prevalence by 50%, and prevent 470,000 smoking-related deaths by 2053. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study aims to assess the implementation of tobacco control policies in Mexico from 2003 through 2017 using the Tobacco Control Scale (TCS). The TCS is a research tool widely used in the European region. It facilitates assessment of tobacco control policy implementation based on six cost-effective interventions: tobacco taxes, smoke-free policies, advertising bans, public spending on the information campaign, health warnings, and smoking cessation treatment, reflecting results in a total score between 0 and 100. From 2003 through 2017, Mexico's total score improved from 24/100 to 55/100, with substantial progress in raising tobacco taxes, 11 subnational smoke-free laws, and with placement on cigarette packs of large health warnings with pictograms. Progress in tobacco control policies implemented in this period corresponds with a decrease in smoking prevalence across Mexico. This tool is useful for monitoring tobacco policy implementation in low- and middle-income countries and be used for advocacy purposes to enforce and improve tobacco control legislation., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.)