Search

Copyright of Regional Science Policy & Practice is the property of Wiley-Blackwell and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

We analyse the transmission factors shaping the spatial distribution of COVID‐19 infections during the distinct phases of the pandemic's first wave in Madrid, Spain, by fitting a spatial regression model capturing neighbourhood effects between municipalities. Our findings highlight that factors such as population, mobility, and tourism were instrumental in the days before the national lockdown. As a result, already in the early part of the lockdown phase, a geographical pattern emerged in the spread of the disease, along with the positive (negative) impact of age (wealth) on virus transmission. Thereafter, spatial links between municipalities weakened, as the influences of mobility and tourism were eroded by mass quarantine. However, in the de‐escalation phase, mobility reappeared, reinforcing the geographical pattern, an issue that policymakers must pay heed to. Indeed, a counterfactual analysis shows that the number of infections without the lockdown would have been around 170% higher. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]