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The El Niño wind and Luzon Strait transport are important factors modulating the interannual variability of the southern and northern South China Sea (SCS) winter circulation, respectively. The joint effect of El Niño wind and westward Luzon Strait transport drives a dipolar gyre with an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly in the southern (northern) SCS, which enhances the cross-basin current that connects the SCS western boundary current with the eastern boundary of the SCS around the Mindoro Strait, and then effectively modulates the interannual variability of Mindoro Strait transport. An extreme El Niño and large Luzon Strait intrusion occurred in winter 2015/16, and mooring observations and remote sensing data confirmed the presence of an intense dipolar gyre. This resulted in an extreme eastward cross-basin current and outward SCS Mindoro Strait transport anomaly in 2015/16. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of eddy shedding from the Kuroshio loop current (LC) into the South China Sea via the Luzon Strait is highly variable and significantly controlled by the uncertainties in the Western Pacific (WP) currents. This study investigates the forecast of a strong eddy shedding event from the Kuroshio LC during the winter 2016–2017 using the regional ocean modeling system and ensemble Kalman filter assimilation method. Experiments are conducted to explore the sensitivity of forecasts to the assimilation of satellite sea surface height anomaly data from different key regions of the WP, such as the subtropical countercurrent (STCC) and Northern Equatorial Current (NEC) regions. The results indicate that the improved forecast performance of the strong Kuroshio LC eddy shedding event is mainly attributed to assimilation in the STCC region and partly owing to assimilation in the NEC region. Specifically, assimilation in the STCC region reproduces a westward-propagating cyclonic eddy that collides with the Kuroshio in the Luzon Strait, blocking the Kuroshio northward flow and causing Kuroshio LC eddy shedding. Furthermore, assimilation in the NEC region enhances the simulation of the weak Kuroshio background current, which further facilitates the formation of a strong Kuroshio background LC and the occurrence of Kuroshio LC eddy shedding. • Strong eddy shedding into the SCS was predicted using EnKF data assimilation. • The improved forecast is mainly owing to a reproduced cyclonic eddy east of Luzon. • It is also partly owing to the reproduced weak Kuroshio background current. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]