1. Development and Validation of a Simple-to-Use Nomogram for Predicting 5-, 10-, and 15-Year Survival in Asymptomatic Adults Undergoing Coronary Artery Calcium Scoring.
- Author
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Ó Hartaigh B, Gransar H, Callister T, Shaw LJ, Schulman-Marcus J, Stuijfzand WJ, Valenti V, Cho I, Szymonifka J, Lin FY, Berman DS, Chang HJ, and Min JK
- Subjects
- Adult, Age Factors, Asymptomatic Diseases, Comorbidity, Coronary Artery Disease mortality, Female, Humans, Los Angeles epidemiology, Male, Middle Aged, Predictive Value of Tests, Prognosis, Reproducibility of Results, Risk Assessment, Risk Factors, Severity of Illness Index, Sex Factors, Smoking adverse effects, Smoking mortality, Tennessee epidemiology, Time Factors, Vascular Calcification mortality, Computed Tomography Angiography, Coronary Angiography methods, Coronary Artery Disease diagnostic imaging, Decision Support Techniques, Nomograms, Vascular Calcification diagnostic imaging
- Abstract
Objectives: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram for prediction of 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival among asymptomatic adults., Background: Simple-to-use prognostication tools that incorporate robust methods such as coronary artery calcium scoring (CACS) for predicting near-, intermediate- and long-term mortality are warranted., Methods: In a consecutive series of 9,715 persons (mean age: 53.4 ± 10.5 years; 59.3% male) undergoing CACS, we developed a nomogram using Cox proportional hazards regression modeling that included: age, sex, smoking, hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, family history of coronary artery disease, and CACS. We developed a prognostic index (PI) summing the number of risk points corresponding to weighted covariates, which was used to configure the nomogram. Validation of the nomogram was assessed by discrimination and calibration applied to a separate cohort of 7,824 adults who also underwent CACS., Results: A total of 936 and 294 deaths occurred in the derivation and validation sets at a median follow-up of 14.6 years (interquartile range: 13.7 to 15.5 years) and 9.4 years (interquartile range: 6.8 to 11.5 years), respectively. The developed model effectively predicted 5-, 10-, and 15-year probability of survival. The PI displayed high discrimination in the derivation and validation sets (C-index 0.74 and 0.76, respectively), indicating suitable external performance of our nomogram model. The predicted and actual estimates of survival in each dataset according to PI quartiles were similar (though not identical), demonstrating improved model calibration., Conclusions: A simple-to-use nomogram effectively predicts 5-, 10- and 15-year survival for asymptomatic adults undergoing screening for cardiac risk factors. This nomogram may be considered for use in clinical care., (Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)
- Published
- 2018
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