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Climate change, the increasing global demand for food and feed and the loss of biodiversity, requires a shift towards a sustainable, innovative and knowledge-based bioeconomy. Simultaneously, the implementation of a strategic approach to the utilization of the sector and associated bioresources that aligns with the principles of sustainability represents a significant challenge. The aim of this study is therefore to develop a methodology for policy and decision makers to facilitate a knowledge-based bioeconomy policy planning framework. To map the development opportunities of the bioeconomy, a detailed analysis was conducted on the Latvian forest sector. This entailed an examination of the system's components within the sector, which involved the collection and analysis of statistical data, reports, and official information from forest sector stakeholders, with the objective of obtaining a comprehensive overview of Latvia's forest sector. Following the identification of the current enablers and constraints of the sector, a selection of niche products with high value-added for sector development was made. During group model building experts: (1) developed a SWOT matrix for the Latvian forest sector; (2) selected three wood-based high value-added products – textile from trees; particle board; natural thermal packaging; (3) elaborated SWOT/TOWS analysis to facilitate strategy development for the niche products. The developed methodology incorporates a synthesis of established scientific methods, including SWOT, TOWS, and AHP, with a bioeconomy system component analysis approach. The methodology therefore not only systematises the process of forest sector analysis, but also applies the findings to the development of sector development pathways aimed at shifting from low value-added to high value-added production. The innovation of the methodology lies not only in the combination of methods used, but also in the insights gained, which allow for a narrower product development perspective to be taken in order to understand the enablers and constraints of the sector and vice versa. • Analysis of the Latvian forest sector for transition to a knowledge-based bioeconomy. • Identifying niche products with higher added value to promote the forest sector. • SWOT/TOWS analysis of niche wood-based products and foresight of future scenarios. • Methodology for policy and decision makers to analyse and develop strategic pathways for bioeconomy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]