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This study measures how Kenyan farmers and farming systems have responded to changes in population density and associated land pressures. Kenya is a relatively densely populated area, with 40% of its rural people residing on 5% of its rural land. We develop a structural model for estimating the impact of population density on input and output prices, farm size, and ultimately on smallholder behavior and agricultural intensification. Evidence is derived from a five-round panel survey between 1997 and 2010. We find a negative relationship between localized population density and farm size, and a positive relationship between population density and measures of land intensification up to roughly 500 persons/km 2 . Beyond this threshold, rising population density is not associated with further increases in land intensification. Some measures of intensification actually show an alarming decline beyond this population density threshold. We also find a relatively weak relationship between population density and off-farm income. Overall, total household income per adult equivalent is found to decline significantly as population density rises. These findings raise serious policy questions about feasible pathways for rural poverty reduction in the context of increasingly land-constrained farming systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• African countries are experiencing agricultural factor price trends that vary with connectedness to towns and economic transformation. • We test whether Kenyan households' response to factor price changes differs systematically by agro-ecological potential and market access. • Farmers in areas of good market access have greater incentives to use labor-saving, land-saving and capital-using practices. • No such changes have occurred in areas of poor market access, suggesting the need for region-specific agricultural research priorities. • Sustainable agricultural productivity growth will require anticipating technologies appropriate for different factor price conditions. While Boserupian intensification processes have been documented in many parts of Africa, there is regional variation in the trends in relative prices of land, labor, and capital inputs such as fertilizer. Some rural areas are experiencing unprecedented spikes in land values associated with growing land scarcity, improved market access, and agricultural commercialization potential, while others remain economically isolated and less influenced by the transformational changes occurring elsewhere in the region. This study uses a panel spanning 13 years of 1208 smallholders in Kenya to assess whether households' response to changes in relative factor prices varies by agro-ecological potential and market access. In areas of low agro-ecological potential, households respond to rising land prices by cultivating less land and applying fertilizer more intensively but do not appear to adjust fertilizer use in response to changing fertilizer prices. By contrast, households in areas of high agro-ecological potential do not appear to adjust the quantity of land under cultivation in response to changing input prices but increase fertilizer use as land prices rise and fertilizer prices fall. Finally, households with better market access conditions appear slightly more responsive to land price changes than do those with poor market access. Given anticipated trends in factor price ratios, this heterogeneity suggests that sustainable forms of agricultural productivity growth will require anticipating the kinds of farm management technologies that will be suitable for farmers in different conditions. This highlights the need for agricultural technology generation and diffusion programs that assist smallholders to overcome the constraints that may prevent them from adapting sufficiently on their own. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]