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This paper conducts ex-ante impact assessments for policy interventions to promote amaranth value chains in Tanzania and Kenya. Amaranth is an underdeveloped, drought-resistant, and nutrition-rich crop used for human food, animal fodder, and ornamental purposes. Promoting amaranth value chains is a difficult task, given that amaranth is not a well-established commodity and has limited market outlets in the developing world at present. This paper provides a framework within which conduct scenario analysis of ways to promote amaranth value chains using system dynamics (SD). We constructed an integrated amaranth production and market model to evaluate the impact of producer adoption of improved production technologies (improved seed varieties), and changes in demand for amaranth products, on producer profits and planting behaviour. The results of our model show that the profitably upgrading and commercialising of amaranth value chains require multifaceted and chain-level interventions that improve supply- and demand-side conditions. Interventions that target only the supply side serve to increase amaranth production, but generate minor economic gain for producers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Endemic foot and mouth disease (FMD) in East African cattle systems is one factor that limits access to export markets. The probability of FMD transmission associated with export from such systems have never been quantified and there is a need for data and analyses to guide strategies for livestock exports from regions where FMD remains endemic. The probability of infection among animals at slaughter is an important contributor to the risk of FMD transmission associated with the final beef product. In this study, we built a stochastic model to estimate the probability that beef cattle reach slaughter while infected with FMD virus for four production systems in two East African countries (Kenya and Uganda). Input values were derived from the primary literature and expert opinion. We found that the risk that FMD-infected animals reach slaughter under current conditions is high in both countries (median annual probability ranging from 0.05 among cattle from Kenyan feedlots to 0.62 from Ugandan semi-intensive systems). Cattle originating from feedlot and ranching systems in Kenya had the lowest overall probabilities of the eight systems evaluated. The final probabilities among cattle from all systems were sensitive to the likelihood of acquiring new infections en route to slaughter and especially the probability and extent of commingling with other cattle. These results give insight into factors that could be leveraged by potential interventions to lower the probability of FMD among beef cattle at slaughter. Such interventions should be evaluated considering the cost, logistics, and tradeoffs of each, ultimately guiding resource investment that is grounded in the values and capacity of each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries in which foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is endemic may face bans on the export of FMD-susceptible livestock and products because of the associated risk for transmission of FMD virus. Risk assessment is an essential tool for demonstrating the fitness of one's goods for the international marketplace and for improving animal health. However, it is difficult to obtain the necessary data for such risk assessments in many countries where FMD is present. This study bridged the gaps of traditional participatory and expert elicitation approaches by partnering with veterinarians from the National Veterinary Services of Kenya ( n = 13) and Uganda ( n = 10) enrolled in an extended capacity-building program to systematically collect rich, local knowledge in a format appropriate for formal quantitative analysis. Participants mapped risk pathways and quantified variables that determine the risk of infection among cattle at slaughter originating from each of four beef production systems in each country. Findings highlighted that risk processes differ between management systems, that disease and sale are not always independent events, and that events on the risk pathway are influenced by the actions and motivations of value chain actors. The results provide necessary information for evaluating the risk of FMD among cattle pre-harvest in Kenya and Uganda and provide a framework for similar evaluation in other endemic settings.

Although Rift Valley fever (RVF) has significant impacts on human health and livestock production, it can also induce significant (and often overlooked) economic losses among various stakeholders in the marketing chain. This work assesses and quantifies the multi-dimensional socio-economic impacts of the 2007 RVF outbreak in Kenya based on a rapid assessment of livestock value chains in the northeast part of the country and a national macroeconomic analysis. Although study results show negative impacts among producers in terms of food insecurity and reductions in income, we also found significant losses among other downstream actors in the value chain, including livestock traders, slaughterhouses, casual laborers, and butchers, as well as other, non-agricultural sectors. The study highlights the need for greater sensitivity and analyses that address the multitude of economic losses resulting from an animal disease to better inform policy and decision making during animal health emergencies.