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Recent advances in text-as-data provide new opportunities to document how elites shape public discourse on contentious issues. Using a novel word embeddings approach to measure elite-driven political narratives in local news, we analyze Kenyan newspaper coverage of the International Criminal Court's (ICC) prosecutions against domestic leaders. We train our embeddings on an original corpus of 5,292 Kenyan newspaper articles from 2007 to 2020 and identify significant changes in how local media vilifies the ICC before, during, and after major investigations. We find that as the case progressed, the ICC became more strongly associated with terms of bias and illegitimacy, an association that quickly dissipated after the court terminated its last proceeding. Our approach illustrates the utility of text-based measures of political sentiment on contentious issues, with implications for research on media narratives, the effects of controversial jurisprudence on public discourse, and backlash against international institutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2016, the East African Community (EAC) pledged to phase out imports of used clothing within three years. The US Trade Representative (USTR) responded by threatening to revoke preferential market access for those involved. Within two years, all EAC states except Rwanda backed down. Using 21 original interviews, this article explores the extent to which political settlements theory can explain variation in commitment to the used clothing ban in Kenya, Uganda and Rwanda. Building on existing research into shrinking 'policy space,' I explicitly consider the role of foreign actors. The ban predominantly imposed costs on consumers, used clothing retailers, and foreign used clothing exporters whose interests were represented by the USTR. EAC apparel manufacturers stood to gain, but the most powerful firms in this sector were foreign-owned exporters who valued the US market more than domestic sales. The US intervention, therefore, changed the stakes for the policy's intended beneficiaries. While vulnerable and contested ruling coalitions in Kenya and Uganda struggled to hold out in conflict with affected groups, a strong dominant party in Rwanda could absorb resistance by marshaling legitimacy from alternative sources and increasing its efforts to sensitize the local population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explains how presidential candidates in Africa's highly diverse states appeal across ethnic lines when ethnic identities are salient, but broader support is needed to win elections. I argue that election campaigns are much more bottom-up and salience-oriented than current theories allow and draw on the analysis of custom data of campaign appeals in Ghana, Kenya, and Uganda, as well as interviews with party strategists and campaign operatives in Ghana and Kenya to demonstrate clear patterns in presidential candidates' cross-ethnic outreach. Where ethnic salience is high, incumbents offer material incentives and targeted transfers to placate supporters, challengers fan grievances to split incumbents' coalitions, and also-rans stress unity and valence issues in the hope of joining the winner. The research contributes to our understanding of parties' mobilization strategies in Africa and further clarifies where and how ethnic divisions are politicized in elections in plural societies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Intermarriage is transforming Africa's ethnic landscape. In several countries on the continent more than a fifth of all marriages now cut across ethnic lines. As a result, there is a growing population of multiethnic citizens who descend from diverse family lineages. The growth of Africa's mixed population has the potential to affect politics in a variety of potentially far-reaching ways. In this article, we focus on one possible implication by examining the electoral preferences of multiethnic voters in contexts where ethnic bloc voting is commonplace. Drawing on survey data from Malawi and Kenya, we find that mixed individuals are less likely to support the party associated with their stated ethnic group, relative to mono-ethnics. We outline several possible explanations related to identity measurement, the link between identities and preferences, and social networks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How does government bias affect prospects for peace agreements in communal conflicts? Government bias has been shown to have a strong impact on the incidence and dynamics of localized ethnic conflict, but the way that it affects conflict resolution remains underexplored. I argue that government bias makes the conflict parties less likely to overcome the commitment problem, because they cannot trust the government's willingness to guarantee or uphold any agreement they reach. Consequently, bias reduces the chances that the parties are able to reach a peace agreement. A systematic comparison of four cases in Kenya provides support for this argument. I also distinguish between bias related to strategic interest and bias related to relationships, and find that the former is more durable, whereas the latter is more likely to be influenced by political turnover, thereby opening up possibilities for peacemaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the last decade, African courts have played an important role in the conduct of free and fair elections. In Kenya, the Supreme Court nullified the presidential election of the incumbent. These rulings challenge the conventional wisdom that courts in hybrid regimes always support power holders despite blatant evidence of electoral fraud. Furthermore, these sparks of judicial resistance deserve our scholarly attention as they have the power to start the democratization process or limit further autocratization. Hence, this paper seeks to understand the conditions under which courts are able to resist incumbents' pressure to legitimize electoral malpractice and side with the opposition. I argue that institutional reforms incentivize courts to resist the incumbent's pressure and to rule in favor of the opposition during electoral disputes under two conditions. First, institutional reforms must reinforce de jure independence by enacting effective legal and constitutional mechanisms that prevent the executive branch from undermining the separation of power. Second, institutional reforms must mobilize judicial support networks by granting them the tools to engage in strategic and repeated litigation. I test this novel theory by leveraging original qualitative and quantitative data from Kenya. Using process tracing, I show how the 2010 constitution created an environment where the courts had no other choice than to annul the election of the incumbent – President Kenyatta – in 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]