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Accurate prediction of food crop yield is of great significance for global food security and regional trade stability. Since remote sensing data collected from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) platforms have the features of flexibility and high resolution, these data can be used as samples to develop regional regression models for accurate prediction of crop yield at a field scale. The primary objective of this study was to construct regional prediction models for winter wheat yield based on multi-spectral UAV data and machine learning methods. Six machine learning methods including Gaussian process regression (GPR), support vector machine regression (SVR) and random forest regression (RFR) were used for the construction of the yield prediction models. Ten vegetation indices (VIs) extracted from canopy spectral images of winter wheat acquired from a multi-spectral UAV at five key growth stages in Xuzhou City, Jiangsu Province, China in 2021 were selected as the variables of the models. In addition, in situ measurements of wheat yield were obtained in a destructive sampling manner for prediction algorithm modeling and validation. Prediction results of single growth stages showed that the optimal model was GPR constructed from extremely strong correlated VIs (ESCVIs) at the filling stage (R2 = 0.87, RMSE = 49.22 g/m2, MAE = 42.74 g/m2). The results of multiple stages showed GPR achieved the highest accuracy (R2 = 0.88, RMSE = 49.18 g/m2, MAE = 42.57 g/m2) when the ESCVIs of the flowering and filling stages were used. Larger sampling plots were adopted to verify the accuracy of yield prediction; the results indicated that the GPR model has strong adaptability at different scales. These findings suggest that using machine learning methods and multi-spectral UAV data can accurately predict crop yield at the field scale and deliver a valuable application reference for farm-scale field crop management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The leaf area index (LAI) is of great significance for crop growth monitoring. Recently, unmanned aerial systems (UASs) have experienced rapid development and can provide critical data support for crop LAI monitoring. This study investigates the effects of combining spectral and texture features extracted from UAS multispectral imagery on maize LAI estimation. Multispectral images and in situ maize LAI were collected from test sites in Tongshan, Xuzhou, Jiangsu Province, China. The spectral and texture features of UAS multispectral remote sensing images are extracted using the vegetation indices (VIs) and the gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM), respectively. Normalized texture indices (NDTIs), ratio texture indices (RTIs), and difference texture indices (DTIs) are calculated using two GLCM-based textures to express the influence of two different texture features on LAI monitoring at the same time. The remote sensing features are prescreened through correlation analysis. Different data dimensionality reduction or feature selection methods, including stepwise selection (ST), principal component analysis (PCA), and ST combined with PCA (ST_PCA), are coupled with support vector regression (SVR), random forest (RF), and multiple linear regression (MLR) to build the maize LAI estimation models. The results reveal that ST_PCA coupled with SVR has better performance, in terms of the VIs + DTIs (R2 = 0.876, RMSE = 0.239) and VIs + NDTIs (R2 = 0.877, RMSE = 0.236). This study introduces the potential of different texture indices for maize LAI monitoring and demonstrates the promising solution of using ST_PCA to realize the combining of spectral and texture features for improving the estimation accuracy of maize LAI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]