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A two-dimensional hydrodynamic model for the waters off the coast of Jiangsu, where there are radial sand ridges (RSRs) (hereinafter, the RSR area), was established based on measured topographic, tide level and tidal current data. Considering the complex topographic and geomorphic characteristics of the RSR group in this area, an unstructured grid was used for the calculation. A four-layer refinement was applied to the grid from outside to inside to better fit the complex topography. The simulations were performed to examine the response of the hydrodynamic environment to the morphology of the RSRs in three scenarios, namely, when there are natural RSRs, no RSRs, and partially reclaimed RSRs. When there are no or partially reclaimed RSRs, the tidal current field still exists in a radial pattern in the RSR area. The radial tidal current field is relatively stable and is not controlled by the morphologies of the RSRs. The topographic changes do not alter the distribution pattern of the radial tidal current field but do affect the local current fields. When there are no RSRs, the flood currents can directly reach Jianggang. Under practical conditions, the RSRs block the tidal currents during a flood tide to some extent. This phenomenon is particularly pronounced when the RSRs are partially reclaimed. For example, during an ebb tide, when the tidal currents encounter sand ridges or reclamation areas, their streamlines bend, and they flow around the obstacles. This change will affect the material transport, sediment deposition and seabed erosion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population growth and associated ecological space occupation are posing great risks to regional ecological security and social stability. In China, "Ecological Conservation Redline" (ECR) that prohibited urbanization and industrial construction has been proposed as a national policy to resolve spatial mismatches and management contradictions. However, unfriendly human disturbance activities (e.g., cultivation, mining, and infrastructure construction) still exist within the ECR, posing a great threat to ecological stability and safety. In this article, a Bayesian network (BN)-GIS probabilistic model is proposed to spatially and quantitatively address the human disturbance risk to the ECR at the regional scale. The Bayesian models integrate multiple human activities, ecological receptors of the ECR, and their exposure relationships for calculating the human disturbance risk. The case learning method geographic information systems (GIS) is then introduced to train BN models based on the spatial attribute of variables to evaluate the spatial distribution and correlation of risks. This approach was applied to the human disturbance risk assessment for the ECR that was delineated in 2018 in Jiangsu Province, China. The results indicated that most of the ECRs were at a low or medium human disturbance risk level, while some drinking water sources and forest parks in Lianyungang City possessed the highest risk. The sensitivity analysis result showed the ECR vulnerability, especially for cropland, that contributed most to the human disturbance risk. This spatially probabilistic method can not only enhance model's prediction precision, but also help decision-makers to determine how to establish priorities for policy design and conservation interventions. Overall, it presents a foundation for later ECR adjustments as well as for human disturbance risk supervision and management at the regional scale. [Display omitted] • A BN-GIS probabilistic model is constructed to address human disturbance risk in a spatial view. • Case learning is introduced to train BN models by integrating the GIS tools. • Human disturbance risk distribution maps are vital for later ECR adjustment and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]