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• Localized structural equation models are estimated for the 13 cities of Jiangsu. • Residents' intentions to participate in source separation and recycling are quantified. • Main influencing factors and their degrees of influence are identified across cities. • Tailored and localized management strategies are proposed. Source separation and recycling (SSR) for municipal solid waste is an important strategy for the transition to a circular economy and requires broader resident participation. How can residents' participation in SSR be promoted? Here, we consider 13 cities in Jiangsu as microcosms of China. We quantify residents' intentions to participate in SSR by distributing a validated questionnaire to 2,963 urban residents, analyze the results through structural equation modeling, and propose localized policy recommendations. We find that residents have positive attitudes toward SSR, although 92.6% of residents in southern Jiangsu were more willing to participate than those in northern Jiangsu (84.6%). Additionally, the influencing factors and their degree of influence on resident SSR participation intentions exhibit disparities across cities. "Accessibility of SSR facilities" simultaneously affects the 13 studied cities and is a key factor. "Environmental knowledge" and "environmental attitudes" are important impact factors, with occurrence frequencies of 84.6% and 69.2%, respectively. However, laws and regulations have no significant effect on residents' SSR participation intentions. We recommend that the government create favorable external conditions related to facilities and services, promote extensive publicity and educational activities through various channels, and improve the effectiveness of SSR laws and regulations. Future SSR management strategies should be localized, flexible and comprehensive. This research could help decision makers in China and other countries design policy guides to promote SSR and help link current research areas to social development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Municipal solid waste (MSW) treatment is one of the main anthropogenic sources of greenhouse gases (GHGs). To mitigate the GHG emissions of the MSW sector, it is crucial to describe their emissions evolutions and mechanisms and propose localized mitigation measures on that basis. The logarithmic mean Divisia index model is used to identify the driving forces of MSW-related GHG emissions and explore the mitigation potential. Jiangsu, a typical province in China with 13 prefecture-level cities, is selected as the case study. The results showed that GHG emissions from Jiangsu's MSW treatment has increased by nearly 2.5 Mt in the last 20 years, as incineration replaces landfills. Economic development was the dominant positive driving force, and MSW generation intensity was the dominant negative driving force. Scenario analysis revealed that the carbon peak of MSW management could appear if MSW source separation and recycling (SSR) were implemented, reducing GHG accumulation emissions by approximately 0.3–0.4 Gt during 2022–2060. Referencing the SSR of the Shanghai pattern will generate the greatest mitigation potential of GHG emissions among the different scenario designs. Finally, policy recommendations for priority cities, consideration of population and economic factors, optimization of MSW treatment structures and improvements to SSR are proposed, which could help local- and national-level decision makers in China and other countries design policy guides to promote carbon neutrality, while simultaneously linking current research areas to waste management practices as well as promoting practices in environment and sustainability. [Display omitted] • Greenhouse gas emission of municipal solid waste sector was estimated in 13 cities. • Spatial-temporal evolution of greenhouse gas emission was depicted. • Driving force effects on greenhouse gas emission were quantified. • Carbon neutrality promoting policies were suggested in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]