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Atmospheric rivers (ARs), conduits of intense water vapor transport in the midlatitudes, are critically important for water resources and heavy rainfall events over the west coast of North America, Europe, and Africa. ARs are also frequently observed over the northwestern Pacific (NWP) during boreal summer but have not been studied comprehensively. Here the climatology, seasonal variation, interannual variability, and predictability of NWP ARs (NWPARs) are examined by using a large ensemble, high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) simulation and a global atmospheric reanalysis. The AGCM captures general characteristics of climatology and variability compared to the reanalysis, suggesting a strong sea surface temperature (SST) effect on NWPARs. The summertime NWPAR occurrences are tightly related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the preceding winter through Indo-western Pacific Ocean capacitor (IPOC) effects. An enhanced East Asian summer monsoon and a low-level anticyclonic anomaly over the tropical western North Pacific in the post-El Niño summer reinforce low-level water vapor transport from the tropics with increased occurrence of NWPARs. The strong coupling with ENSO and IPOC indicates a high predictability of anomalous summertime NWPAR activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the summer of 2004, the Kuroshio took a large meander path south of Japan for the first time since 1991, and this large meander event persisted until the next summer. Satellite observations and numerical model simulations are used to study the effect of this large meander event on the atmosphere. The large meander leaves a cool water pool between the Kuroshio and Japanese coast. Sea surface temperature (SST) in the cool water pool is about 2°–3°C colder than the surroundings during winter and spring, whereas the SST signature substantially weakens in summer. A local reduction of wind speed is found over the cool water pool, and the positive SST–wind speed correlation is indicative of ocean forcing of the atmosphere. Cloud liquid water (CLW) content and precipitation also decrease over the cool SST pool. A regional atmospheric model successfully simulates atmospheric response to the Kuroshio large meander. The model experiments suggest that the reduced surface wind speed and precipitation are due to the large meander-induced SST cooling. Analysis of the surface perturbation momentum budgets shows the importance of the pressure adjustment mechanism in surface wind response to the cold SST anomalies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Meiyu-baiu is the major rainy season from central China to Japan brought by a zonally elongated rainband from June to mid-July. Large-scale characteristics and environmental forcing of this important phenomenon are investigated based on a reanalysis dataset. The meiyu-baiu rainband is accompanied by a trough of sea level pressure, horizontal shears, and sharp moisture gradients near the surface, a westerly jet tilted northward with height, and large northeastward moisture transport from the south. The analysis here reveals the westerly jet as an important culprit for meiyu-baiu. Along the rainband, mean ascending motion corresponds well with a band of warm horizontal temperature advection in the midtroposphere throughout summer. This adiabatic induction of upward motion originates from the advection of warm air by the westerlies from the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau. The ascending motion both induces convection and is enhanced by the resultant condensational heating. The westerly jet anchors the meiyu-baiu rainband also by steering transient eddies, creating periods conducive to convection through convective instability and adiabatic updrafts. Indeed, in meiyu-baiu, the probability distribution of convective instability shows large spreads and is strongly skewed, with a sharp cutoff on the unstable side resulting from the effective removal of instability by convection. Thus, active weather disturbances in the westerly waveguide explain a paradox that convection is active in the meiyu-baiu rainband while mean convective instability is significantly higher to the south over the subtropical North Pacific warm pool. In addition to the westerly jet, low-level southerly winds over eastern China between the heat low over Asia and the subtropical high pressure belt over the Pacific are another important environmental forcing for meiyu-baiu by supplying moisture. A conceptual model for meiyu-baiu is presented, and its implications for seasonal and interannual variations are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The baiu and Kuroshio Extension (KE) fronts, both zonally oriented and nearly collocated east of Japan, are the dominant summertime features of the atmosphere and ocean, respectively, over the midlatitude northwest Pacific. An atmospheric sounding campaign was conducted on board the R/V Roger Revelle during the 2005 summer. Transects of soundings across the KE front are analyzed to study its effects on the atmosphere, along with continuous surface meteorological and ceilometer cloud-base observations. While the KE front remained nearly stationary during the cruise, the baiu front displayed large meridional displacements that changed wind direction across the KE front. The presence of sharp sea surface temperature (SST) gradients anchored by the KE enhanced the thermal and moisture advection, causing substantial changes in the marine atmospheric boundary layer (MABL) structure. When the baiu front was displaced north of the KE front, southwesterly winds advected warm, humid air from the subtropics over the cold water, producing a surface inversion favorable to fog formation. When the baiu front was to the south, on the other hand, northerly winds across the KE front destabilized the MABL, leading to the formation of a solid low-cloud deck beneath a strong capping inversion. The wind changes with the meridional displacement of the baiu front thus caused large variations in near-surface atmospheric stability and surface turbulent heat fluxes, with potential feedback on deep convection and fog/low-cloud formation around the front. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer climate in the Northwestern Pacific (NWP) displays large year-to-year variability, affecting densely populated Southeast and East Asia by impacting precipitation, temperature, and tropical cyclones. The Pacific-Japan (PJ) teleconnection pattern provides a crucial link of high predictability from the tropics to East Asia. Using coupled climate model experiments, we show that the PJ pattern is the atmospheric manifestation of an air-sea coupled mode spanning the Indo-NWP warm pool. The PJ pattern forces the Indian Ocean (IO) via a westward propagating atmospheric Rossby wave. In response, IO sea surface temperature feeds back and reinforces the PJ pattern via a tropospheric Kelvin wave. Ocean coupling increases both the amplitude and temporal persistence of the PJ pattern. Cross-correlation of ocean-atmospheric anomalies confirms the coupled nature of this PJIO mode. The ocean-atmosphere feedback explains why the last echoes of El Niño-Southern Oscillation are found in the IO-NWP in the form of the PJIO mode. We demonstrate that the PJIO mode is indeed highly predictable; a characteristic that can enable benefits to society.