Search

Oral cancer incidence and/or mortality has been reported to be currently increasing in several countries, particularly those of central and eastern Europe. Most of these reports pertain to men, although increases in incidence among women also have been found. In this report, data from twenty-four countries in the World Health Organization's mortality database are analyzed. The widespread increase observed in oral cancer mortality among men is not occurring in women. Nevertheless, increases have occurred in several countries in Europe, and oral-cancer death rates--especially in central and eastern Europe--are likely to increase further if tobacco smoking, in particular, becomes more popular among younger women.

Oral cancer is considered widely to be a form of cancer whose etiology is well understood and which is becoming relatively rare in developed countries. There have been, however, a series of recent reports indicating that after many years of declining risk, the rates may be rising again in men. To investigate the extent of such changes, national time-series of oral-cancer mortality data available in the World Health Organization's mortality database have been analyzed. Age-period-cohort modeling was used to establish the extent and nature of these changes and to allow comparisons among countries. Nineteen out of 24 national datasets demonstrate a similar pattern of recent increasing cohort-effects for oral cancer in men. The largest increases have occurred in countries of central and eastern Europe where rates have increased by a factor of from three to 10 within a generation. The cohort-based nature of the changes observed in men suggest that there will be a continuing increase in the absolute numbers of cases of oral cancer to be treated in the coming decades.