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One of the remarkable environmental characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) Hagibis (2019) was the positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly observed in the western North Pacific Ocean. In this study, an ensemble-based sensitivity experiment was conducted with a nonhydrostatic model, focusing on the impact of SST on TC motion. The TC with the analyzed SST (warm run) moved faster near mainland Japan than with the lowered SST (cold run), as the TC in the warm run was embedded earlier in the mid-latitude westerly jet located to the north than that in the cold run. The TC displacement was consistent with the large decrease of geopotential height at 500-hPa (Z500) in the north of TC Hagibis during the warm run. Further investigation showed that the approach to the westerly jet presumably induced the low local inertial stability as well as the southwesterly vertical wind shear enhancing the upward mass flux in the north of the TC. They led the enhanced upper-tropospheric northward outflow from the TC energized by the warm SST, and it resulted in the decrease of the Z500 in the north. This study suggests that warm SST can affect TC tracks through interaction with mid-latitude westerly jets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated extremely heavy precipitation that occurred around the Kinugawa River, Japan, in September 2015, and the probability of extreme precipitation occurrence, using data from a large ensemble forecast of more than 1,000 members that were dynamically downscaled to 1.6 km horizontal grid spacing. The observed event was statistically rare among simulated cases and the 3-day accumulated precipitation around the target area was equivalent to the 95th percentile among all simulated ensemble members. Our results show that this extreme precipitation event occurred under specific conditions: two coexisting typhoons at close proximity that produced a high atmospheric instability, and water vapor transported from the Pacific Ocean. We also assessed the probability of extreme precipitation in mountainous areas other than the Kinugawa River case. Heavy precipitation also occurred southwest of the Kinugawa River region due to two typhoons, similar to the Kinugawa River case. The tracks of these typhoons shifted marginally; however, there was a difference in the water vapor supplied to the area, causing heavy precipitation. The large-ensemble downscaled data used in this study hence enabled us to evaluate the occurrence probability of a torrential rainfall event that was rarely observed, which may contribute to updating a disaster-mitigating plan for possible similar disasters in future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]