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The construction year of road bridges plays an important role in bridge management systems. Based on the age of road bridges and other factors, deterministic and probabilistic deterioration models can be used to calculate deterioration rates and predict the future physical condition of road bridges. Two new techniques are proposed in this manuscript for estimating the construction year of road bridges by analyzing the normalized difference water index 2 (NDWI_2). Technique 1 uses both the target bridge point (TBP) and a selected optimal reference control point, while Technique 2 uses only the TBP. Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper NDWI_2 data were analyzed at all 44 road bridges in Nago City, Japan of the bridges' overall length ≤ 100 m and construction year between 1990 and 2006. The sequential t-test analysis of the regime shift method, at a significance level α = 0.05 and cutoff length l = 2 to l = 27, was used to interpret the estimated construction year from the NDWI_2 for both techniques. Both techniques successfully determined the estimated construction year, which was statistically significant with p-values < 0.05, except for seven road bridges in Technique 1 and one road bridge in Technique 2. The correlation and comparative analysis of the actual and estimated construction years yielded R 2 = 0.24 and R 2 = 0.33, as well as an average deviation of S = 5.81 years and S = 4.08 years for Technique 1 and Technique 2, respectively. The findings suggest that Technique 2 is more accurate and provides a better estimate than Technique 1. It was observed that, as the cutoff length l increased, the absolute error between the actual and estimated construction year increased. Therefore, as a measure of accuracy, the upper limit of cutoff length l was set to l ≤ 12. It was also observed that the increase in the bridge's overall length and forested area contributed to the accuracy of the results. By using the construction year as one of the inputs into bridge management systems, bridge managers can make more informed decisions about how best to maintain and improve road bridges to ensure user safety and road bridge preservation for the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the infrasonic observation of a fumarolic field, distinguishing multiple fumarolic sources is challenging. The array technique effectively estimates the source locations and identifies the target signal from other signals and noise. We conducted an experiment at Kirishima Iwo-Yama, Japan, where two active fumarolic areas were separated by ~ 450 m. A three-element array with an aperture of ~ 20 m was installed between the two fumarolic areas. In addition, a single microphone was installed near one of the fumaroles. The array combined with the waveform correlation analysis estimated the most prominent source but failed to estimate the other weak source. A joint analysis of the array and the single microphone effectively resolved the two sources. It was also confirmed that newly developed power-saving MEMS microphones were useful for observing the fumaroles. This paper presents the instrumentation and analytical method that would be beneficial for monitoring volcanoes that have multiple hydrothermally active vents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The brittle star Ophiura sarsii with a disc diameter (DD) of less than 9 mm is an important prey item for flathead flounder Hippoglossoides dubius in Funka Bay. To establish an age-determination technique and estimate the growth equation for Ophiura sarsii sarsii (a dominant sub-species of O. sarsii in Funka Bay), we observed ridges on the surface of the arm ossicles. Specimens were collected using a sledge net, their DD measured, and the first arm ossicles examined from scanning electron microscopy images. Because the outermost ridges were formed from November to March, ridges were identified as yearly rings (annuli). The maximum age was 16.83 years (16.46-mm DD), and the largest sized individual was 22.19-mm DD (13.75 years). The best growth equation between DD and age (t) was given by Richard's model using a minimum Akaike's information criterion and growth rate comparison: DDt= 24.02 × {1 − 1.70 × exp[− 0.067 × (t + 8.25)]}−1/(−1.70). Small-sized (< 9-mm DD) and large-sized (ca. 15-mm DD) cohorts were composed of multi-year classes, and estimated growth rates from cohort progressions were 2.25 mm/year and 0.98 mm/year, respectively. We presumed that the large-sized cohort could be explained by a high survival rate and slow growth rate after the age of 5 or 6 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applied the general-to-specific econometric modelling technique to estimate demand for tourism imports and the corresponding elasticities for four countries: Australia; Canada; Japan and USA. The findings indicate that tourism imports are generally income and price elastic with values ranging from 1.476 to 1.783 for income elasticity and -1.201 to -1.721 for price elasticity. Furthermore, the findings reveal that, after controlling for seasonality in the data, demand for tourism import is influenced by global financial crisis, disasters and country-specific problems. These findings have important implications for tourism import management, especially in the broader context of promoting tourism imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Understanding the hourly electricity profile and the electricity consumption by each appliance is essential for encouraging energy-saving measures in the household sector. There are two methods for identifying energy consumption for households in existing studies: the engineering and the statistical methods. Both methods have strengths and limitations. In this study, we developed a hybrid method based on the statistical method by combining following three steps using knowledge of the engineering method; externalizing the electricity consumption for the refrigerator, adding the number of at-home-and-awake members as explanatory variables, and restricting appliance usage hours. The proposed hybrid method could adequately reproduce the total hourly electricity consumption and seasonal variation compared to the engineering method, and could decompose major appliances, some of which that were not disaggregated by the statistical method. For the quantitative analysis of the model improvement, we calculated Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Mean Absolute Error (MAE) for each method with direct metering data. For most of appliances, RMSE and MAE of hybrid model were improved from 11% to 71% compared to the existing methods. The collection of more samples to increase the accuracy of the estimation and application to areas of low statistical data availability are future steps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant accident, the internal and external exposures of the residents have been very important issues and concerns. Fukushima prefectural government and Fukushima medical university have been performing the Fukushima Health Management Survey, and the external exposures of the residents have been estimated in the survey by using NIRS external dose estimation system. The doses of 66.3% residents were >1 mSv, and 94.8 % were >2 mSv. For estimating internal exposures of the residents, thyroid measurements, whole body counter measurements and simulation have been applied. These three approach estimations showed that the 90 percentile of thyroid equivalent doses were 10-30 mSv for 1-year-old baby and were 10-20 mSv or less for adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fluid pressure ratio and effective friction coefficient of shear veins in an exhumed accretionary complex in the Cretaceous Shimanto Belt, southwest Japan, were constrained by fluid inclusion and stress inversion analyses. The shear veins are considered to be developed along the decollement. Temperature and pressure conditions for shear veins were found to be in the range of 175–225°C and 143–215 MPa, respectively. Fluid pressure ranged between the lines of 70–100% lithostatic pressure, when the geothermal gradient was assumed on the basis of the slab age at the trench. The effective friction coefficient of shear veins was estimated to be 0.1–0.2 by stress inversion analysis, which corresponds to a fluid pressure ratio of 0.67–0.83. Both pressure–temperature and friction coefficient results indicate that the fluid pressure ratio is higher than about 0.7. In this paper, we propose the procedure to constrain paleo-fluid pressure ratio from natural materials. Wedge states were examined using the weak decollement friction coefficient, with shallow and steep taper angles indicating that the wedge state is stable or compressively critical, and is controlled by the fluid pressure ratio within the wedge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An intermediate band solar cell (IBSC) whose equivalent circuit is similar to a multijunction (MJ) solar celt but with an additional parallel diode connection is shown to be more robust to spectral variation than a series-connected MJ solar cell. We have calculated the limiting efficiencies of lBSC and MJ solar cells using the measured solar spectra in Japan. Even though the maximum efficiency of an I BSC is lower than a triple junction (3J) solar cell at airmass (AM)1.5, the I BSC would generate more annual electricity by 1% than 3J cell at I sun, if they had been optimized at AMI.5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article reconsiders how to judge judicial independence by using the Japanese judicature, one of the allegedly-most dependent judiciary branches. In their influential work, Ramseyer and Rasmusen (2003) argue that judges who once belonged to a leftist group take longer to reach a ‘moderately prestigious status’ under the long-term conservative rule of Japan. Their method does not, however, deal appropriately with the possibility of judges not reaching this position because the judge dies, retires early, or is still at the early stage of her career. Ramseyer and Rasmusen also mistakenly assume that all judges will eventually obtain this position. This article develops a survival analysis model of judicial careers and attempts to solve the problems of censoring, left truncation, and split population. We also offer a way to utilize a matching procedure to estimate average treatment effects on censored time-to-event as well as event occurrence. We re-analyze a corrected version of Ramseyer and Rasmusen's data using their and our methods. One of the most important findings is that, contrary to what Ramseyer and Rasmusen argue, leftist judges are not discriminated against in terms of the timing of promotion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To investigate the applicability of frictional reactivation theory to active faults, we evaluated the slip tendency of active faults in Japan. Slip tendency is defined as the ratio of shear stress to the frictional resistance acting on a fault plane. To estimate the stress field near active faults, we determined focal mechanisms for numerous shallow earthquakes in the intraplate region of Japan, using data from dense seismic observation networks. The stress fields were estimated by applying the stress inversion method to the focal mechanisms. We found that most active faults are well oriented with respect to the stress field, having slip tendencies of ≥0.6, which indicates that fault reactivation theory is applicable to active faults, and that the present day tectonic stress field has contributed substantially to the development of active faults. Conversely, several steeply dipping active faults in northeast Japan, as well as the source faults of the 1995 Hyogoken–Nanbu earthquake, are mis-oriented, with slip tendencies of <0.6, which may indicate that highly pressurized fluids have contributed to earthquake triggering on these mis-oriented faults. We also discuss the applicability of slip tendency analysis to earthquake hazard assessment; i.e. estimating the probability of a future rupture on active faults. Our results indicate that slip tendency does not correlate with elapsed time since the most recent earthquake event. This observation shows that slip tendency may not be an efficient parameter with which to assess the risk of an earthquake occurring in the near future on a specific fault. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims After a new postgraduate training program was launched by the Ministry of Health, Labour, and Welfare in 2004, concern regarding the maldistribution of physicians has increased in Japan. This study aimed to assess the interprefectural distribution of psychiatrists in Japan before and after the start of the new postgraduate training program. Methods Our data included nine time points: 1996, 1998, 2000, 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008, 2010 and 2012. The Gini coefficient ( GC) was calculated using prefectures as the study unit to assess whether the interprefectural distribution of psychiatrists significantly changed in relation to the population and area of prefectures. The effect of the new postgraduate training program on the GC of psychiatrist distribution was assessed by estimating the interaction between year and period (before or after the postgraduate training program) using a general linear model analysis. Results The total number of psychiatrists increased from 10 093 to 14 733 over the observed period. The general linear model showed a significant interaction between the year and the period for the GC based on the number of psychiatrists per 100 km2, whereas no interaction was found for the GC based on the number of psychiatrists per 100 000 population. Conclusions The interprefectural distribution of psychiatrists per 100 km2 worsened after the launch of the new training program; this result may reflect the adverse impact of the training program. Further observation is needed to explore how this difference in the interprefectural distribution of psychiatrists affects the mental health status of the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: On 11 March 2011, a massive undersea earthquake, measuring 9.0 on the Richter scale, caused a tsunami that devastated the shoreline of east Japan. It is estimated that over 20,000 people lost their lives as a result. It is recommended that clinical effort after a tsunami disaster concentrate on a high-impact area rather than cover a large area. However, regional differences in post-traumatic stress symptoms among children after a tsunami disaster are not well clarified. Methods: This study evaluated post-traumatic stress symptoms and reported the findings of early-phase screening of 2259 students from Higashi-Matsushima City, Japan, 6 weeks after a tsunami hit the city. The sample was divided into two age groups: elementary school students ( n = 1102) and junior high school students ( n = 1157). Of these groups, 289 (26.2%) elementary school students and 123 (10.6%) junior high school students attended the four schools that were located in the area struck by the tsunami; the mortality rate of the area exceeded 4%. We referred to these students as the “high-impact group.” The “lower-impact group” consisted of 813 (73.8%) elementary school students and 1034 (89.4%) junior high school students who attended the remaining ten schools. Results: The severity of post-traumatic stress symptoms did not significantly differ between areas with relatively high and low impact. However, among the junior high school students, those attending the school in the highly impacted area showed higher post-traumatic symptoms scores than did the students of the less-impacted area . Conclusion: When planning a mass intervention after a disaster, especially in the early phase when the resources for intervention are not sufficient, it might be useful to consider the degree of age-dependent impact effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this study was to perform an interim evaluation of the policy effect of the current reform of Japan's municipal hospitals. We focused on efficiency improvements both within hospitals and within two separate internal hospital organizations. Hospitals have two heterogeneous internal organizations: the medical examination division and administration division. The administration division carries out business management and the medical-examination division provides medical care services. We employed a dynamic-network data envelopment analysis model (DN model) to perform the evaluation. The model makes it possible to simultaneously estimate both the efficiencies of separate organizations and the dynamic changes of the efficiencies. This study is the first empirical application of the DN model in the healthcare field. Results showed that the average overall efficiency obtained with the DN model was 0.854 for 2007. The dynamic change in efficiency scores from 2007 to 2009 was slightly lower. The average efficiency score was 0.862 for 2007 and 0.860 for 2009. The average estimated efficiency of the administration division decreased from 0.867 for 2007 to 0.8508 for 2009. In contrast, the average efficiency of the medical-examination division increased from 0.858 for 2007 to 0.870 for 2009. We were unable to find any significant improvement in efficiency despite the reform policy. Thus, there are no positive policy effects despite the increased financial support from the central government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: For the estimation of energy output from photovoltaic (PV) modules, considering the impact of degradation is essential. In this study, the longtime outdoor performance of various types of silicon-based PV modules [single crystalline Si (sc-Si), multi crystalline Si (mc-Si), amorphous Si (a-Si), a-Si/micro crystalline Si tandem, and a-Si/a-SiGe/a-SiGe three-stack (3-stack)] which were installed at the same outdoor exposure condition in Shiga Prefecture, Japan were investigated using Performance Ratio (PR) as an index of performance of PV modules for ten years from 2000 to 2009. Yearly PR and monthly PR were analyzed and degradation rates (DR) were calculated. The DR was different on the kinds of PV modules from 0.404 to 3.51%/year. The a-Si PV module showed the largest DR and the 3-stack PV module had the least trend to degrade. The analysis of the monthly DR indicated that the high DR of the a-Si PV module was due to the quite large DR in summer, whereas the monthly DR of sc-Si and mc-Si PV modules did not differ much from each other throughout the years. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: To estimate the current contamination levels in Minamata Bay, the vertical and horizontal distributions of mercury in the sediment were investigated. Sediment core samples were collected in 2002, 2006, 2008, and 2010 at 12 locations by gravity core sampling in Minamata Bay and Fukuro Bay, which is located in the southern part of Minamata Bay. The average total mercury concentrations during each year in the surface sediment were 2.47–3.34 and 3.50–4.66mgkg−1 for Minamata Bay and Fukuro Bay, respectively; significant variation in the values was not observed during the study period. The total mercury concentration in Fukuro Bay increased with increasing depth and reached a maximum at 8–14cm from the surface and decreased with increasing depth in the deeper layer. In Minamata Bay, the total mercury concentration did not change significantly from the surface to a depth of 10cm and the values were considerably higher than the background level. In the lower layers of the long cores taken from both areas, the total mercury concentration decreased with depth, and the deepest layers exhibited relatively uniform low values. These values can be considered to represent the background concentration in the absence of anthropogenic influence. The depth of the sediment affected by the effluent was estimated to be 20±7cm and 33±4cm for Minamata Bay and Fukuro Bay, respectively. Furthermore, it was estimated from the average concentration and volume of the contaminated layer that approximately 1ton of discharged mercury remained in the sediment of the two bays. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper explores how trust in government shared by neighbors is associated with individual preferences for income redistribution and individual perceptions regarding income tax burden. Using individual-level data from Japan, a nation with shared homogenous racial and cultural backgrounds, this paper controls for unobservable heterogeneity among Japan's population, thus reducing estimation bias. Three measures for trust in government are used: 'trust in ministries and government agencies', 'trust in diet members', and 'trust in members of municipal councils'. After controlling for individual characteristics, the key findings are: (1) people are more likely to express preferences for income redistribution when trust in government in their residential area is high; (2) people are more likely to perceive their tax burden as low when trust in government in their residential area is high; and (3) when the sample is divided into people with above average income and those with below average income, these results are only clearly observed for people with above average income and not those with below average income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) for estimating bulk density (BD) of forest soils in Japan affected by volcanic ash were developed using 3513 stone-free soil data. We found that 29 existing PTFs of five empirical types and one physical type generally overestimated the BD. This occurred because volcanic soil with the unique physical and chemical properties and forest soils with high pore volume resulted in lower BD and higher organic carbon content (OC) compared with other soil groups and produced a much lower bulk density of the ‘pure’ mineral fraction, a parameter of the physical PTF (1.153 in this study), compared with previous studies. Revised PTFs were newly developed by a non-linear least-squares method using the same algorithms of the six types of published PTFs. The best fit revised PTFs were a decimal one, BD=1/(0.882+0.133OC), and a physical one based on organic matter fraction (OM), BD=100/[(OM/0.140)+{(100−OM)/1.152}]. The revised PTFs predicted 37% of the samples to within ±10% and 67% of the samples to within ±20% in relative error for BD and explained 68% of BD variations. The variable mixture proportion of volcanic ash in the soils, the differences of soil textures, and the topographic conditions of the forest soils in Japan may have caused the variation in the observed BD. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

SUMMARY Precise estimation of the capacity for right-turn traffic (comparable to left-turn traffic in the USA) is of great importance to determine signal phasing schemes at signalized intersections in Japan, where the left-hand driving rule is valid. However, in most signal timing procedures across the world, the lost time of right-turn traffic is simply determined by the duration of intergreen intervals and thus lacks considerations of various signal phasing and driver behavior. Meanwhile, sneakers per cycle are usually applied to account for the number of drivers completing right turns during the effective red portion of the clearance-and-change intervals. As a result, an initial cycle length must be hypothesized in order to assess the total number of sneakers within the analysis period. Consequently, a time-consuming iterative calculation process often becomes necessary. Therefore, the present study aims to develop a new lost time estimation method for right-turn traffic to overcome the aforementioned drawbacks. Lost times of right-turn traffic under three conventional phasing plans are theoretically formulated on the basis of a time-space diagram and shock-wave theory. The new method is validated using field data, with case studies of its application in the signal timing procedure. Results indicated that the proposed method is capable of offering more accurate estimation than conventional approaches, which leads to shorter cycle length and simplifies signal timing process by eliminating an iterative check to determine the number of sneakers. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Cd emissions from municipal solid waste incinerators were estimated for 1970–2030. [•] Emissions peaked in 1973 (11.1t) at levels ten times that in 2010 (1.2t). [•] In the 1970s, the main source was pigments, but after 2000, it was Ni-Cd batteries. [•] The effects of two Cd control policies were compared. [•] Banning Cd use reduced emissions more than intensive collection of batteries. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Background: Marital status is one of the most frequently replicated predictors of suicide. The purpose of this study was to examine the effect of marital status on the risk of suicide by gender, using a large population-based cohort in Japan. Methods: The Miyagi cohort study was a population-based, prospective cohort study of Japanese adults aged between 40 and 64 years. Between June and August 1990, 47,604 participants residing in 14 municipalities of Miyagi Prefecture, Japan, completed a questionnaire on various health-related lifestyles, including marital status. During 18 years of follow-up, 146 of the participants committed suicide. We used the Cox proportional hazards regression model to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for suicide mortality according to marital status with adjustment for potential confounders. Results: A total of 106 and 40 deaths from suicide were recorded during 344,813 and 365,524 person-years of follow-up among 20,671 men and 21,076 women, respectively. We found that marital status was significantly associated with the risk of completing suicide only in men. Among men, after multivariate adjustment, HRs in reference to married were as follows: widowed or divorced, 2.84 (95% CI: 1.37–5.90); unmarried, 1.56 (95% CI: 0.67–3.64). A significantly increased risk of suicidal death was observed among widowed or divorced men, whereas no such trend was evident for women. Conclusions: Our results suggest that men who are widowed or divorced, or unmarried, are at increased risk of suicide, whereas no such risk is evident for women. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

With Japanese hospital financing reform, a prospective payment system ( PPS) has been established for inpatient care to replace the traditional fee-for-service remuneration of hospitals. This paper evaluates the effect of the reform on technical and cost efficiency of local public hospitals. Efficiency is estimated non-parametrically using two-stage data envelopment analysis with bias correction through bootstrap, and parametrically applying stochastic frontier analysis. The descriptive analysis shows that efficiency declines after the introduction of PPS. Difference-in-difference estimations reveal that PPS results in a limited efficiency gain, which might be related to inadequate incentives created by the two-part PPS tariff in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents reconsideration of whether the monetary policy in the late 1980s was delayed. No report in the literature describes studies evaluating past monetary policy using the model-consistent latent variable from Bayesian estimation. No delay of monetary policy can be found. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A feedforward-feedback aeration control strategy based on online oxygen requirements (OR) estimation is proposed for oxidation ditch (OD) processes, and it is further developed for intermittent aeration OD processes, which are the most popular type in Japan. For calculating OR, concentrations of influent biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) are estimated online by the measurement of suspended solids (SS) and sometimes TKN is estimated by NH4-N. Mixed liquor suspended solids (MLSS) and temperature are used to estimate the required oxygen for endogenous respiration. A straightforward parameter named aeration coefficient, Ka, is introduced as the only parameter that can be tuned automatically by feedback control or manually by the operators. Simulation with an activated sludge model was performed in comparison to fixed-interval aeration and satisfying result of OR control strategy was obtained. The OR control strategy has been implemented at seven full-scale OD plants and improvements in nitrogen removal are obtained in all these plants. Among them, the results obtained in Yumoto wastewater treatment plant were presented, in which continuous aeration was applied previously. After implementing intermittent OR control, the total nitrogen concentration was reduced from more than 5 mg/L to under 2 mg/L, and the electricity consumption was reduced by 61.2% for aeration or 21.5% for the whole plant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Output energy of Si based photovoltaic modules was estimated around Japan. [•] Published meteorological data from observatory was used for the estimation. [•] In the estimation, variation of solar spectrum was also considered. [•] The estimation results reflected the outdoor characteristics of each module. [•] This proposed method should be useful for energy rating. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The finless porpoise Neophocaena asiaeorientalis inhabits coastal waters and rivers in East Asia and is exposed to various human activities. This species is listed on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species due to a reduction in abundance. Although human-induced mortality can be a threat to porpoise populations, future anthropogenic impacts have not been quantitatively evaluated due to lack of demographic information. Adequate future population projections are needed to form the basis for conservation measures before the population declines to critical levels. We conducted a population viability analysis for the population of finless porpoise in the Inland Sea, Japan using a Leslie matrix model composed of age-specific survival and fertility rates. We described the uncertainty in the annual rate of increase ( λ) for the finless porpoise using randomly sampled estimates of survival rate for other cetaceans with similar life histories. Plausible median estimates of λ ranged from 1.041 (age at first reproduction [AFR] = 7) to 1.056 (AFR = 5). Future population changes and extinction probabilities were predicted after combining these estimates with a predicted human-induced mortality rate ( M) and available abundance estimates. The extinction probability after 100 years was 0 %. However, the probability of the quasi-extinction (<100 individuals) was as high as 79.0 % after 100 years. The results also suggest that the persistence of the finless porpoise population could be achieved with a small effort to reduce anthropogenic mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rupture process of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake is estimated from the joint inversion of teleseismic body waves and geodetic data using multiple time-window analysis. To enhance the reliability of the inversion solution, two important inversion-setting parameters that control the spatiotemporal slip distribution, the maximum slip duration of each subfault (Tsd) and the propagation velocity of the first time window (Vftw), are determined by objective criteria. By performing a semblance analysis of small-aperture seismic array data of near-source strong motion waveforms, Tsd is determined to be 100 s. Vftw is determined to be 2.0 km/s from the matching of the teleseismic and geodetic slip models. The spatial resolution of geodetic inversion is significantly improved by using seafloor crustal deformation data in the source area in addition to the terrestrial Global Positioning System network data. The estimated seismic moment and the maximum slip are 3.4 x 1022 N-m (Mw = 9.0) and 43 m, respectively. The total rupture duration is ~ 150 s. Large slip is seen in the shallow part of the fault surface, including the hypocenter, and its spatial extent along the trench axis is ~300 km. This model is consistent with the results of bathymetric surveys and the slip models from tsunami data. The relationships among the fault parameters of the characterized source model of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake suggest the possibility that saturation of fault width occurs for this huge earthquake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The mean NO2/NO x ratios of vehicle emission, the mean duration time of NO reaction with O3 and background concentrations at the five most polluted roadside stations in Tokyo are estimated statistically using monitoring data at both roadside sites and urban background sites. These statistics are then used to categorize roadside NO2 into three components; NO2 emission from vehicles (primary NO2), oxidation of NO by O3 (secondary NO2) and background NO2 (BG NO2). Secondary NO2 and BG NO2 make a greater contribution to the high NO2 concentrations in spring and summer. On the other hand, BG NO2 contributes the dominant portion to high NO2 concentrations in winter. The effects of vehicle NO x emission reduction on the concentration of primary, secondary and BG NO2 are evaluated using an NO2 emission reduction scenario, an oxidation model proposed in this study and an air quality simulation, respectively. It is predicted that the shift to vehicles meeting the stringent emission regulation beginning in 2009 will lower the roadside NO2 concentration due mainly to the large decrease in secondary NO2. On the other hand, the reduction of NO x in vehicle emissions results in a smaller decrease in roadside NO2 in winter. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study demonstrates that urban heat island (UHI) intensity can be estimated by comparing observational data and the outputs of a well-developed high-resolution regional climate model. Such an estimate is possible because the observations include the effects of UHI, whereas the model used does not include urban effects. Therefore, the errors in the simulated surface air temperature, defined as the difference between simulated and observed temperatures (simulated minus observed), are negative in urban areas but 0 in rural areas. UHI intensity is estimated by calculating the difference in temperature error between urban and rural areas. Our results indicate that overall UHI intensity in Japan is 1.5 K and that the intensity is greater in nighttime than in daytime, consistent with the previous studies. This study also shows that root mean square error and the magnitude of systematic error for the annual mean temperature are small (within 1.0 K). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper examined the complementary relationship between the direct effects of local brand farm products, such as through increases in income and employment in the local community, and indirect effects, such as through the development of tourism, by examining data collected by a survey of agricultural cooperatives in Japan. Estimation of a determinant model of direct and indirect economic effects that assumed an endogenous relationship revealed that those cooperatives producing brand products that have a relatively long history of branding of products, systems for quality control, preservation of the local heritage, and a local partnership between agricultural and accommodation/restaurant sectors are much more likely to achieve the two primary economic goals of income and employment generation. It is concluded that a wider and longstanding perspective of local resource management is necessary to enhance the complementary relationship between economic gain of local brand farm products and tourism development. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Considering the current poor understanding of the seawater-freshwater (SW-FW) interaction pattern at dynamic hydro-geological boundary of coastal aquifers, this work strives to study tidal effect on groundwater quality using chemical tracers combined with environmental isotopes. In situ measurement data of electrical conductivity and groundwater level along with laboratory measurement data of hydro-chemical species were compared with tidal level data measured by Hydrographic and Oceanographic Department, Saijo City, Japan for time series analysis. Result shows that diurnal tides have significant effect on groundwater level as well as its chemical characteristics; however, the magnitude of effect is different in case of different aquifers. Various scatter diagrams were plotted in order to infer mechanisms responsible for water quality change with tidal phase, and results show that cations exchange, selective movement and local SW-FW mixing were likely to be the main processes responsible for water quality changes. It was also found that geological structure of the aquifers is the most important factor affecting the intensity of tidal effect on water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The petrographic method has been a popular technique for estimating the ages and growth rates of corals based on growth ring density in their axial skeleton. The organic matrix staining (OMS) method, a modified method of petrographic method, has also been used for measuring age and growth rate of the Mediterranean red coral (Corallium rubrum) by staining the organic matrix (OM) in the calcite skeleton. Since the OMS method is based on the concentration of OM in the coral skeleton, this method may not be suitable for coral species with low OM content. In the presnt study, growth characteristics and growth rates of three Japanese precious corals (JPCs; Paracorallium japonicum, Corallium elatius and Corallium konojoi) were determined based on the principles of the petrographic method using a high resolution VHX-1000 digital microscope, termed as VHX-1000 hereafter, without staining the OM in the axial skeleton. Compared to the OM-stained cross-sections (slabs), growth rings in un-stained slabs of the Japanese red coral (P. japonicum) were more clearly visible with the VHX-1000. This may be due to low concentration of OM in the coral skeleton. Growth rate of JPCs differ significantly depending on coral species, habitat, and environmental conditions. Diametric and linear growth rates of the Japanese red coral (P. japonicum) were slower (0.20±0.08–0.27±0.01 and 2.22±0.82–6.66±5.52mmyr−1, respectively) than the Japanese pink (C. elatius; 0.30±0.04 and 2.76±2.09mmyr−1, respectively) and white (C. konojoi; 0.44±0.04 and 7.60±0.75mmyr−1, respectively) corals. In addition, the diametric growth rate of the Japanese red coral (P. japonicum) is slower (0.24±0.05–0.44±0.04mmyr−1) than the Mediterranean red coral (C. rubrum; 0.20–0.62±0.19mmyr−1). [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The total number of influenza cases with medical attendance has been estimated from sentinel surveillance data in Japan under a random sampling assumption of sentinel medical institutions among the total medical institutions. The 2009 pandemic offered a research opportunity to validate the sentinel-based estimation method using the estimated proportion of infections measured by the population-wide seroepidemiological survey employing hemagglutinin inhibition (HI) assay. For the entire population, we estimated the age-standardized proportion of infections at 28.5% and 23.5% using cut-off values of HI titer at 1 : 20 and 1 : 40, respectively. Investigating the age profiles, we show that the estimated influenza-like illness (ILI) cases with medical attendance exceeded the estimated infections among those aged from 0 to 19 years, indicating an overestimation of the magnitude by sentinelbased estimation method. The ratio of estimated cases to estimated infections decreased as a function of age. Examining the geographic distributions, no positive correlation was identified between the estimated cases and infections. Our findings indicate a serious technical limitation of the so-called multiplier method in appropriately quantifying the risk of influenza due to limited specificity of ILI and reporting bias. A seroepidemiological study should be planned in advance of a pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Estimates of radiation dose rates are presented for marine biota in March–May 2011 in the coastal zone near Fukushima NPP, and in the open sea. Calculations of fish contamination were made using two methods: a concentration factor approach, and a dynamic model. For representative marine organisms (fish and molluscs) the radiation dose rates did not exceed the reference level of 10 mGy/day. At a distance 30 km from the NPP, in the open sea the radiation doses for marine biota were much lower than those in the coastal zone near the NPP. Comparative estimates are presented for radiation doses to aquatic organisms in the exclusion zones of the Eastern Urals Radioactive Trail, and the Chernobyl NPP. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: It is shown which information can be extracted from the monitoring of radionuclides emitted from the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant and transported to Europe. In this part the focus will be on the analysis of the concentration ratios. While 131I, 134Cs and 137Cs were reported by most stations, other detected radionuclides, reported by some, are 95Nb, 129mTe, 132Te, 132I, 136Cs and 140La. From their activity ratios a mean burn-up of 26.7 GWd/t of the fuel from which they originated is estimated. Based on these data, inventories of radionuclides present at the time of the accident are calculated. The caesium activity ratios indicate emissions from the core of unit 4 which had been unloaded into the fuel storage pool prior to the accident. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Contamination of the marine environment following the accident in the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant represented the most important artificial radioactive release flux into the sea ever known. The radioactive marine pollution came from atmospheric fallout onto the ocean, direct release of contaminated water from the plant and transport of radioactive pollution from leaching through contaminated soil. In the immediate vicinity of the plant (less than 500 m), the seawater concentrations reached 68 000 Bq.L−1 for 134Cs and 137Cs, and exceeded 100 000 Bq.L−1 for 131I in early April. Due to the accidental context of the releases, it is difficult to estimate the total amount of radionuclides introduced into seawater from data obtained in the plant. An evaluation is proposed here, based on measurements performed in seawater for monitoring purposes. Quantities of 137Cs in seawater in a 50-km area around the plant were calculated from interpolation of seawater measurements. The environmental halftime of seawater in this area is deduced from the time-evolution of these quantities. This halftime appeared constant at about 7 days for 137Cs. These data allowed estimation of the amount of principal marine inputs and their evolution in time: a total of 27 PBq (12 PBq–41 PBq) of 137Cs was estimated up to July 18. Even though this main release may be followed by residual inputs from the plant, river runoff and leakage from deposited sediments, it represents the principal source-term that must be accounted for future studies of the consequences of the accident on marine systems. The 137Cs from Fukushima will remain detectable for several years throughout the North Pacific, and 137Cs/134Cs ratio will be a tracer for future studies. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Caesium-137 and Iodine-131 radionuclides released after the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant accident in March 2011 were detected at monitoring stations throughout the world. Using the CTBT radionuclide data and the assumption that the Fukushima accident was the only source of these radionuclides, it was possible to estimate their time-dependent source-term fourteen days following the accident by using atmospheric transport modelling. A reasonable agreement was obtained between the modelling results and the estimated radionuclide release rates from the Fukushima accident. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

An epi-thermal instrumental neutron activation analysis (EINAA) method in conjunction with Compton suppression spectrometry (EINAA-CSS) was used for the determination of total iodine in eight different species of edible seaweeds from Japan. This method gave an absolute detection limit of about 2 μg. The accuracy of the method was evaluated using various reference materials and found to be generally in agreement within ±6% of the certified values. The longitudinal distributions of iodine at different growing stages in Japanese sea mustard and tangle seaweeds were investigated. For a 150-cm-high tangle, the highest concentration (5,360 mg/kg) of iodine was found at the root, then decreased slowly to 780 mg/kg in the middle portion (60-75 cm), and increased to 2,300 mg/kg at the apex. On the other hand, for a 190-cm-high sea mustard the highest levels of iodine were found both at the roots (164 mg/kg) and apex (152 mg/kg) with lower values (98 mg/kg) in the middle section. In order to estimate the bioaccessible fraction of iodine, seaweeds were digested by an in vitro enzymolysis method, dietary fibre separated from residue, and both fractions analyzed by EINAA-CSS. The average daily dietary intakes of total (0.14 mg) as well as bioaccessible fraction (0.12 mg) of iodine from the consumption of sea mustards were estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Is a fiscal stimulus effective? This classical question has received significant research attention since the collapse of the global financial services firm Lehman Brothers. Although most studies agree on the existence of Keynesian multiplier effects, several studies also demonstrate the existence of non- Keynesian effects. What explains this lack of consensus in the literature? In this paper, we aim to bridge the two views by estimating a near-vector autoregressive system that includes interaction terms of fiscal instruments, and the debt-to-gross domestic product ( GDP) or the primary-deficit-to- GDP ratios. Moreover, to embed the dynamics of the debt-to- GDP ratio in the analysis, we explicitly incorporate the government budget constraint. By computing and comparing the impulse response functions, we find Keynesian effects when fiscal conditions are sound, and non- Keynesian effects when the primary deficit is large. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study provides new estimates of the income distribution of high income earners and uses recent empirical findings related to the elasticity of taxable income in Japan to derive the optimal highest marginal tax rate. Based on the 2003 Top Taxpayer Rankings, the Pareto distribution coefficient (α) is estimated to be 2.1. Compared with Mizoguchi (1987), this suggests the possibility that income in Japan is concentrated, though not to the same degree as in the United States, among the top several thousand to several tens of thousands of high income earners. On the other hand, recent empirical research has estimated the elasticity of taxable income to be in the range from 0.051 to 0.28. This result indicates that the optimal highest marginal tax rate in Japan is higher than the current level as long as the social welfare weight attached to the most highly skilled individuals is not too large. It also supports the argument for increasing taxes on high income earners. Also, the elasticity of taxable income is influenced by the withholding tax and year-end adjustment system and by the earned income deduction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: We developed a new back-projection method that uses teleseismic P-waveforms to integrate the direct P-phase with reflected phases from structural discontinuities near the source and used it to estimate the spatiotemporal distribution of the seismic energy release of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. We projected a normalized cross-correlation of observed waveforms with corresponding Green''s functions onto the seismic source region to obtain a high-resolution image of the seismic energy release. Applying this method to teleseismic P-waveform data of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we obtained spatiotemporal distributions of seismic energy release for two frequency bands, a low-frequency dataset and a high-frequency dataset. We showed that the energy radiated in the dip direction was strongly frequency dependent. The area of major high-frequency seismic radiation extended only downdip from the hypocenter, whereas the area of major low-frequency seismic radiation propagated both downdip and updip from the hypocenter. We detected a large release of seismic energy near the Japan Trench in the area of maximum slip, which was also the source area of the gigantic tsunami, when we used only the low-frequency dataset. The timing of this large seismic energy release corresponded to an episode of smooth and rapid slip near the Japan Trench, and reflects the strong dependence of the seismic energy distribution obtained on the frequency band of the input waveform dataset. The episode of smooth and rapid slip may have been the trigger for a release of roughly all of the accumulated elastic strain in the seismic source region of the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Radon and thoron exhalation rates from the ground surface were estimated in three islands of Okinawa Prefecture, a subtropical region of Japan. In situ measurements of the exhalation rates were conducted at a total of 88 points using an accumulation technique with a ZnS(Ag) scintillation detector. The radon and thoron exhalation rates were calculated to be 1–137 (arithmetic mean: 21) mBq m−2 s−1 and 32–6244 (1801) mBq m−2 s−1, respectively. In the surface soil samples collected at 53 measurement points, 238U and 232Th series concentrations were estimated to be 17.9–254.0 (64.0) Bq kg−1 dry and 17.8–136.1 (58.8) Bq kg−1 dry, respectively. The maximum rates and concentrations were observed in the dark red soil area. Recent studies strongly suggest that the base material of the soils may be the eolian dust derived from the southeastern part of China, a high background radiation area. The eolian dust is, therefore, considered to be an enhancer for the radon and thoron exhalations in Okinawa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper applies Bayesian estimation to an open-economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of Japan, to assess the effects of expanding government debt on interest rates, real exchange rate dynamics, and real sector performance. We find that the emergence of even a small risk premium on government debt will trigger considerable instability in the real and nominal variables. We show that a switch to an exchange-rate rule for monetary policy would considerably moderate the instability induced by a rising risk premium. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to propose a new index for the seismic damage estimation of service lines. The proposed index is based on the tension of each service line due to an earthquake event. Because the tension is evaluated using not only the seismic intensity, but also the dynamic properties of the major components of the distribution equipment, including poles, lines, transformers, and service lines, the proposed index makes it possible to quantitatively differentiate the seismic damage level of every distribution pole. Using the records of seismic damage caused by the 2007 Niigata-ken Chuetsu-oki earthquake, the estimation accuracy of the proposed index is compared to that of existing damage indices. It is shown that the proposed index is more suitable than existing indices for equipment damage estimation. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Electron Comm Jpn, 95(9): 17-26, 2012; Published online in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com). DOI 10.1002/ecj.11400 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Considerations of metropolitan commuting have often related to urban space as a continuum, and to commuting itself as a process. This approach has led to escalating complexity in the measurement, modeling and analysis of commuting, often with no commensurate results. The present study extends an alternative approach that considers commuter space of a metropolis as a discrete set of small areas. Each small area throughout the metropolis is a nighttime location of some households and, as a possible discrete destination choice of individuals within households, each subarea is also a daytime location of some persons. Each subarea, therefore, may be thought of as attaining two values, corresponding to its daytime (e.g., noontime) and nighttime (e.g., midnight) populations. The diurnal demographic shift of subareas, as a set of binary events, or toggles, between daytime and nighttime populations, is associated with commuter access throughout the metropolis. Diurnal shift offers structural simplicity aimed at estimating small-area daytime populations across a metropolitan region that might suitably precede and complement conventional continuum considerations of commuting. Using data for the Tokyo Metropolitan Region, we identify average household size as the nighttime indicator of small-areas, and daytime population density as their daytime indicator. The potential for the estimation of daytime populations across metropolitan regions where daytime population data are unavailable, is underscored by the clear tendency towards inverse relation of these two indicators of diurnal shift. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

We examined a performance of the multiplicative stomatal conductance model to estimate the stomatal ozone uptake for Fagus crenata. Parameterization of the model was carried out by in-situ measurements in a free-air ozone exposure experiment. The model performed fairly well under ambient conditions, with low ozone concentration. However, the model overestimated stomatal conductance under enhanced ozone condition due to ozone-induced stomatal closure. A revised model that included a parameter representing ozone-induced stomatal closure showed better estimation of ozone uptake. Neglecting ozone-induced stomatal closure induced a 20 % overestimation of the stomatal uptake of ozone. The ozone-induced stomatal closure was closely related to stomatal ozone uptake rather than accumulated concentrations of ozone exceeding 40 nmol mol. Our results suggest that ozone-induced stomatal closure should be implemented to stomatal conductance model for estimating ozone uptake for F. crenata. The implementation will contribute to adequate risk assessments of ozone impacts on F. crenata forests in Japan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper uses cross-country data compiled immediately after the Fukushima nuclear accident to investigate how the experience of such disasters affects the perception of the risk of nuclear accidents. Estimation results show that the perceived risk of a nuclear accident is positively associated with experiencing technological disasters but not with that of natural disasters. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: As a proxy measure of the human ecological footprint, impervious surface area (ISA) has recently become a key concept in the field of urban remote sensing, with a focus on estimation of the ISA at a city-scale by using Landsat-style satellite images. However, ISA estimation is also in demand in disciplines such as the environmental assessment and policy making at a national scale. This paper proposes a new method for estimating the ISA fraction in Japan based on a temporal mixture analysis (TMA) technique. The required inputs for the proposed method are rearranged MODIS NDVI time-series datasets at the temporal stable zone (i.e., the first to the sixth largest NDVI values in a year). Three ISA distribution maps obtained from Landsat-5 TM data were used as reference maps to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results showed that the proposed TMA-based method achieved a large reduction in the effects of endmember variability compared with the previous methods (e.g., SMA and NSMA), and thus the new method has promising accuracy for estimating ISA in Japan. The overall root mean square error (RMSE) of the proposed method was 8.7%, with a coefficient of determination of 0.86, and there was no obvious underestimation or overestimation for the whole ISA range. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Exchange-rate risk is often thought to reduce international trade flows, but numerous theoretical and empirical analyses have pointed toward positive as well as negative effects. This is particularly true when bilateral trade flows for individual industries are estimated. In this study, we extend the literature to the case of Japanese trade with China for 110 import industries and 95 export industries. Aggregate Japanese exports, but not imports, respond to real exchange rate volatility in the long run, while most individual export and import industries respond in the short run. Although many individual Japanese import industries are affected in the long run by risk, mostly negatively, this is even more the case for exporters. A larger proportion of Japanese export industries are affected by exchange rate uncertainty for most industry sectors. Manufacturing exports are particularly vulnerable to this risk, with a large share responding negatively to increased volatility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we investigate the exact integration of series and analyse the cointegration relationship in the Japanese demand system. We find that the series considered in this analysis follow a fractionally I(d) process, not an exact I(1) one. Further, the Japanese demand system comprises the fractional cointegration relationships. Therefore, the use of a standard cointegration analysis might have a possibility of misleading the demand system with a fractionally cointegrated I(d) process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]