Search

As part of its economy-wide decarbonization target towards 2050, Japan plans to increase renewable generation, especially offshore wind, for which the country has a high potential. However, this resource is currently under-developed as available turbines are prone to shut-downs and can even suffer damage during the passage of typhoons. With new typhoon proof (T-class) turbines being currently developed by various companies, Japan now aims to develop 10 GW of offshore wind between 2021 and 2030, and 91 GW in the long-term. This research estimates the impact of integrating offshore wind into the Japanese main power grid using T-class turbines by considering three scenarios. First, a business-as-usual (BAU) case with 10 GW offshore wind capacity (following the 6th Strategic Energy Plan of Japan). Second, an offshore wind capacity of 91 GW. Third, the 91 GW offshore capacity being redistributed amongst regions to maximize its integration opportunities (Scenario 2). The simulations were carried out using the Energy System simulation model (EnSym). The results show that the BAU and Scenario 1 resulted in offshore wind achieving 1.7% and 7.28% of generation share, respectively, increasing to 9.77% for Scenario 2. Increasing the share of offshore wind in the energy mix mainly replaced liquefied natural gas (LNG). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A field survey of Fukuura Coast (in Tokyo Bay, Japan) revealed during the passage of Typhoon Faxai in 2019 waves with considerable momentum caused significant wave overtopping, resulting in structural damage to coastal defenses and localized flooding. The hindcasted wave height using a third-generation wave model was not high enough to explain the extent of the local damage at Fukuura Coast, likely due to such methods failing to take into account the strong gust-winds recorded during the passage of the typhoon. To solve such problems the authors developed a new numerical model that takes into account the dynamic interaction of air and water, based on the finite volume method (FVM) and the volume of fluid method (VOF). Although this model still slightly underestimates the measurements in the experiments previously conducted by different authors, it is better than existing methods when estimating the overtopping rates under strong winds. The model was then applied to a real-scale model of Fukuura Coast, where by taking into account strong gust-wind speed of 41 m/s the authors were able to explain the phenomena that took place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative assessments on the effect of translate speed of typhoons on wind waves were carried out. A WRF-SWAN coupled model that used observed meteorological data was applied to eight different typhoons in the vicinity of Shiono-Misaki, on the pacific side of Honshu Island, Japan. The authors proposed a new methodology to modify the translate speed and wind field of tropical cyclones using an empirical model in which the gross wind speed is expressed as the summation of two different types of wind generation. Two different trends of the relationship between the significant wave height ( H s ) and translate speed (V ) were found, describing the most dominant parameter. Typhoons with a modest intensity and size (for the case of Japan) generally showed a positive correlation between the change in the maximum H s and V , which means translation wind speed was the dominant parameter. In contrast, stronger typhoons were less sensitive to the change in V and could maintain high waves even when almost stationary. With reference to the results, it is important to raise awareness of the future problems that could be caused by large storms that stall for prolonged periods of time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2011 Tohoku Earthquake and Tsunami generated a massive tsunami that devastated Kujukuri Beach in Chiba Prefecture, Japan. The possibility that edge waves were involved in the propagation mechanism of the tsunami was investigated by using a numerical method. To detect the components of edge waves, the fluctuations of the simulated sea level, the variations of the power spectral and the phase, coherences, as well as the dispersed relations of the wavelength and the period, were analyzed. As a result, it was possible to conclude that there is a high probability that edge waves could have propagated around this coastline. In addition, to analyze the various types of edge waves that could be expected three additional earthquake scenarios were considered, each of them with a different magnitude and epicenter: the 1896 Sanriku Earthquake, the 1677 Empo Boso-oki Earthquake, and the 1703 Genroku Kanto Earthquake. This comparison indicates that there is a particular risk that edge waves can be generated by large earthquakes with their epicenter in the northern part of the Japan Trench. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Five cases of ports in Japan and Indonesia that have subsided by a metre or more were analysed. The findings suggest that there are no unsurmountable technological, cost-benefit, financial and social limits to the progressive raising of these ports, at least for the magnitude of climate-induced sea-level rise expected during the 21st century. In Indonesia observed adaptation is a sequential process: only part of the port is raised at one time, allowing port operations to continue elsewhere and spreading costs in time. Jumps in unit costs are apparent as the elevation height increases. In addition, the possibility of sea-level rise triggering innovative changes in port design to lower costs (e.g., a move to floating ports) is being considered. For traditional ports to upgrade by up to 1 metre, unit costs are found to be somewhere between 50–360 USD/m3 rise (not including the cost of piling). Nevertheless, such adaptation costs would represent a significant burden and adaptation is often reactive rather than proactive, leading to significant damage costs, as in the case of Hurricane Katrina's impact on Gulf Coast Ports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past studies have projected that global mean sea levels could be up to between 0.98 and 2.92 m higher by the year 2100 than pre-industrial levels, which could seriously affect wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). However, there is currently a lack of guidelines regarding how these types of installations can adapt to sea level rise (SLR). The present research analyzes how SLR might affect WWTPs that are situated near the coastline and how they can adapt by using experiences of land subsidence as a proxy. The Tohoku region in northern Japan experienced severe land subsidence (up to − 1.14 m in Ishinomaki city) after the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The authors conducted in-depth interviews with staff from three significant WWTPs in the area to elucidate the effects that land subsidence had on their operations and how they could adapt to an increase in land subsidence or SLR. The results suggest that for land subsidence of − 0.53 m (equivalent to a SLR of + 0.53 m), the surveyed WWTPs were considered to be able to operate normally, without undertaking any major adaptation actions. Critical levels that influence the vulnerability and adaptation strategies of WWTPs to SLR were identified. These critical levels can help differentiate between the three types of SLR-induced flooding that can affect the plants, namely coastal flooding, discharge flooding and groundwater inundation. WWTPs utilizing combined sewage systems may face more difficulties when adapting to SLR. Finally, the authors proposed limit-state adaptation pathways for WWTPs situated in low-lying coastal areas, including a sequence of possible countermeasures and a timeline for specific actions to take place. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tsunamis are some of the most destructive types of natural hazards that can affect coastal areas. To optimize tsunami mitigation measures, it is important to estimate the potential casualties that can result from one of these events. Taking into account tsunami awareness and the possible evacuation behavior of at-risk individuals is necessary to estimate the number of casualties, though most of the research carried out to date has not considered detailed evacuation behavior when conducting simulations. In the present study, the authors proposed a new approach to estimating the number of tsunami casualties, based on a tsunami evacuation simulation model that considers the evacuation behavior of local residents, tourists and beach users. Such behavior parameters were incorporated by analyzing the results from previous questionnaires surveys. The model was applied to Yuigahama Beach in Kamakura City, Japan, with the aim of assessing potential tsunami casualties and providing suggestions regarding tsunami mitigation measures. The authors conducted seven tsunami inundation simulations for different earthquake scenarios, and then casualties were estimated considering six different evacuation scenarios. Based on the simulation results, it appears particularly important to attempt to improve the intended evacuation behavior of both the local population and visitors. Particularly, providing information about safe places and the routes to reach them is necessary, as prompt evacuation and heading to higher ground were found to be insufficient behavior to save lives during a tsunami event. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Modelled hourly electricity supply/demand balance under different energy mixes in Japan. [•] Evaluation of electricity security of supply indicators for baseline and alternative generation mixes. [•] Demonstrated security improvements for high share of renewables and nuclear phase-out. [•] Structure of supply sector might have to dramatically change to guarantee system reliability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Following the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster, Japan is having to re-design its energy policy. With the danger of nuclear power in an earthquake-prone country exposed, renewable energies are being seen as a potential alternative. An assessment of the feasibility of a 100% renewable energy electricity system in Japan by the year 2030 was shown to be able to achieve a higher level of electricity resilience. The assessment is based on a simulation of the hourly future electricity production based on wind and solar meteorological data, that can cope with the estimated future hourly electricity demand in Japan for the year 2030. Such as system would use pump-up storage and electric batteries to balance the daily fluctuations in supply and demand, though the most important challenge of the system would be providing sufficient electricity to meet the summer demand peak. These findings have import implications at the policy making level, as it shows that the Japanese electricity generation system is technically able to increase the share of renewables up to 100%, guaranteeing a stable and reliable supply. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

At 14:46 on March 11, 2011 (local time), a large earthquake of magnitude Mw 9.0 took place, generating a tsunami that caused severe damage to the east coast of Japan. To comprehensively record tsunami trace heights and impacts along the coastal region, the Tohoku Earthquake Tsunami Joint Survey Group was organized immediately after the event. As part of this group, the authors conducted a field survey in Miyagi and Fukushima Prefectures. The surveyed area can be divided into 2 parts from the point of view of its geographical features: the northern part (a rias coastal area) and the southern part (a coastal plain area). In this paper, the characteristics of the damage due to the tsunami in each area are analyzed by using both the results of the authors' own field survey and the Joint Survey Group. In the rias coastal area, inundation heights were more than 10 m, which resulted in the flooding of the low-lying grounds located at the inner part of the bays. The tsunami wave caused widespread destruction in this area, and coastal buildings (including reinforced concrete buildings) suffered severe damage. In the southern coastal plains, inundation heights were 5-10 m and the tsunami reached a few kilometers inland, though unfortunately there were not enough high locations or buildings for the residents to evacuate. In addition, an extensive line of coastal dikes and forests, which had been placed to protect the wide plains behind them, also suffered extensive damage. From these geographically dependent inundation and destruction patterns, a number of important lessons on how to modify and improve future risk management strategies can be obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to lead to increases in both sea level and typhoon intensity, which could threaten the stability of breakwaters in the future. In this study, calculations using the SWAN model showed that a 10% potential increase in the future wind speed of typhoons resulting from the warming of surface sea temperatures can lead to a 21% increase in the significant wave heights generated by these winds. To understand the effect that this would have on breakwater stability, the expected sliding distances for the breakwaters at Shibushi Ports in Japan were estimated using a probabilistic design method. The results show that in the future the expected sliding distances may become five times greater than at present, due to a combination of increases in sea level and wave height. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A number of scientists have recently conducted research that shows that tropical cyclone intensity is likely to increase in the future. This would result in an increase in the damage along with a decrease in economic productivity due to precautionary cessation of the economic activity of the affected areas during the passage of the cyclone. The economic effect of this stop in economic activity is a phenomenon that has not received much attention in the past, and the cumulative effect that it can have on the Japanese economy over the next 75 years has never been evaluated. The starting point for the evaluation of the economic risks is the change in the patterns of tropical cyclone intensity suggested by Knutson and Tuleya. The results obtained show how a significant decrease in the overall productivity of the country could be expected, which could lower GDP by between 6% and 13% by 2085. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a method to simulate the construction of a caisson breakwater in order to evaluate the risks involved in its construction. A computer model of the construction process that a contractor would follow to build a caisson breakwater was developed, with the wave climate for each month of the duration of works modeled using data obtained from the NOWPHAS Reports. Possible damage to the caisson was determined using a deformation-based reliability design method that included sliding, tilting, overturning of the caisson and erosion of the toe armour and foundation material. The model included possible delays due to adverse weather, reconstruction of damaged sections and construction accidents. By using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, the expected cost and time to finish the breakwater could be obtained, allowing to determine the risk associated with the breakwater construction. Thus, it is possible to determine when would be the most appropriate time to begin construction and the likelihood of encountering problems during the construction phase. A case study of the breakwater construction for Honshu island in Japan is shown, with the results comparing well with the experience of Japanese contractors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Residential demand response empowers the role of electricity consumers by allowing them to change their patterns of consumption, which can help balance the energy grid. Although such type of management is envisaged to play an increasingly important role in the integration of renewables into the grid, the factors that influence household engagement in these initiatives have not been fully explored in Japan. This study examines the influence of interpersonal, intrapersonal, and socio-demographic characteristics of households in Yokohama on their willingness to participate in demand response programs. Time of use, real time pricing, critical peak pricing, and direct load control were considered as potential candidates for adoption. In addition, the authors explored the willingness of households to receive non-electricity related information in their in-home displays and participate in a philanthropy-based peer-to-peer energy platform. Primary data were collected though a questionnaire survey and supplemented by key informant interviews. The findings indicate that household income, ownership of electric vehicles, socio-environmental awareness, perceived sense of comfort, control, and complexity, as well as philanthropic inclinations, all constitute drivers that influence demand flexibility. Finally, policy recommendations that could potentially help introduce residential demand response programs to a wider section of the public are also proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Solar PV capacity growth in Japan has been facilitated by a number of government schemes that have been implemented since 1994. Publicly available capacity data are provided by a number of agencies and organisations at various resolutions and at different stages within these schemes. This study provides a comprehensive review of solar PV data sources in Japan between 1994 and 2019, as well as an introduction to the subsidy schemes and organisations involved in scheme management and data collection in Japan. As a result, the authors produced their own dataset of installed capacities and generation across time for the various regions. Lastly, this study provides insights and recommendations to policy makers regarding opportunities for improving the accessibility and quality of data from a user perspective and to enhance Japan's presence in international research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Typhoon Jebi struck Japan on the 4 September 2018, damaging and inundating many coastal areas along Osaka Bay due to the high winds, a storm surge, and wind driven waves. In order to understand the various damage mechanisms, the authors conducted a field survey two days after the typhoon made landfall, measuring inundation heights and depths at several locations in Hyogo Prefecture. The survey results showed that 0.18–1.27 m inundation depths were caused by Typhoon Jebi. As parts of the survey, local residents were interviewed about the flooding, and a questionnaire survey regarding awareness of typhoons and storm surges, and their response to the typhoon was distributed. The authors also mapped the location of some of the containers that were displaced by the storm surge, aiming to provide information to validate future simulation models of container displacement. Finally, some interesting characteristics of the storm surge are summarized, such as possible overtopping at what had initially been thought to be a low risk area (Suzukaze town), and lessons learnt in terms of disaster risk management are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correction to the article "The Economic Impact of Future Increase in Tropical Cyclones in Japan" that was published online on June 5, 2010 is presented.