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• This study develops an econometric model of a multiple integer demand. • We show that the proposed model has a closed-form probability. • An integer programing approach for demand prediction and welfare analysis is developed. • The empirical results show that the proposed model provides a better fit for the data. We developed an integer programing extreme value (IPEV) model that accounts the integer property of trip data and has the same advantages as the multiple discrete–continuous extreme value choice (MDCEV) model. The proposed model is consistent with utility theory and provides a single structural framework for simultaneously modeling the choice of alternatives and quantity decisions with the constraint of the integer value of consumption. We demonstrate that the proposed model has a closed-form probability expression. Finally, we apply the proposed model to the recreation demand for national parks in Japan. The empirical results suggest that the proposed model provides a better fit for the data than the previous model and that ignoring the integer property of demand might cause an underestimation of the welfare loss. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated whether the 2011 spill of radioactive materials from the Fukushima nuclear plant into the Pacific Ocean had a negative impact on the demand for cod and pollock in the wholesale markets of Japan. A structural break test detected several breaks, including the Fukushima disaster, and successfully eliminated the impact of the other shocks identified in our analysis. A system of demand equation models, which take into account the structural breaks, indicated that the spills had a significantly negative impact on the demand for cod. Our results suggest that the amount of radiation detected in cod products negatively affected Japanese demand for cod and positively affected demand for pollock, but did not affect their prices. In addition, we found that consumers' current concerns about radioactive spills positively affect cod and pollock markets. We concluded that radioactive spills harm the markets, but the impact is negligible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimated the demands of Japan's cod and pollock markets, taking into account unknown structural changes. We used monthly wholesale price and quantity data between January 2004 and July 2013 at the Tsukiji market in Tokyo, Japan. Structural break tests detected multiple structural changes in the targeted period. A price-dependent demand model with detected structural changes successfully cleaned up the effects of the structural changes and estimated an accurate demand and elasticities. When structural changes were taken into account, the model fits improved by up to 17 points. The results indicated the one-way influence of cod on the pollock market. Also, the pollock market was sensitive to an economic recession, but household income did not affect pollock as well as cod, presumably because both goods are necessary goods for Japanese consumers. These results are helpful for policy makers in devising marketing strategies. Since fresh cod is an inelastic good, cod fisheries can reduce their cost by reducing their days at sea, which would increase the cod price due to its inelastic characteristics. As such, they can expect some profit via cost reduction and an increase in the price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]