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Objective: Aortic dissection and aortic aneurysm rupture are aortic emergencies and their clinical outcomes have improved over the past two decades; however, whether this has translated into lower mortality across countries remains an open question. The purpose of this study was to compare mortality trends from aortic dissection and rupture between the UK, Japan, the USA and Canada., Methods: We analysed the WHO mortality database to determine trends in mortality from aortic dissection and rupture in four countries from 2000 to 2019. Age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 persons were calculated, and annual percentage change was estimated using joinpoint regression., Results: Age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 persons from aortic dissection and rupture in 2019 were 1.04 and 1.80 in the UK, 2.66 and 1.16 in Japan, 0.76 and 0.52 in the USA, and 0.67 and 0.81 in Canada, respectively. There was significantly decreasing trends in age-standardised mortality from aortic rupture in all four countries and decreasing trends in age-standardised mortality from aortic dissection in the UK over the study period. There was significantly increasing trends in mortality from aortic dissection in Japan over the study period. Joinpoint regression identified significant changes in the aortic dissection trends from decreasing to increasing in the USA from 2010 and Canada from 2012. In sensitivity analyses stratified by sex, similar trends were observed., Conclusions: Trends in mortality from aortic rupture are decreasing; however, mortality from aortic dissection is increasing in Japan, the USA and Canada. Further study to explain these trends is warranted., Competing Interests: Competing interests: All authors report no relevant conflicts of interest., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2024. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: Hypertension or elevated blood pressure (BP) is an important risk factor for aortic dissection (AD); however, few prospective studies on this topic have been published. We investigated the association between hypertension/elevated BP and AD in 2 cohorts and conducted a meta-analysis of published prospective studies, including these 2 studies., Methods: We analyzed data from the J-SHC study (Japan-Specific Health Checkups) and UK Biobank, which prospectively followed up 534 378 and 502 424 participants, respectively. Multivariable Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the association of hypertension/elevated BP with AD incidence in the UK Biobank and AD mortality in the J-SHC Study. In the meta-analysis, summary relative risks were calculated with random-effects models. A potential nonlinear dose-response relationship between BP and AD was tested with fractional polynomial models, and the best-fitting second-order fractional polynomial regression model was determined., Results: In the J-SHC study and UK Biobank, there were 84 and 182 ADs during the 4- and 9-year follow-up, and the adjusted hazard ratios of AD were 3.57 (95% CI, 2.17-6.11) and 2.68 (95% CI, 1.78-4.04) in hypertensive individuals, 1.33 (95% CI, 1.05-1.68) and 1.27 (95% CI, 1.11-1.48) per 20-mm Hg increase in systolic BP (SBP), and 1.67 (95% CI, 1.40-2.00) and 1.66 (95% CI, 1.46-1.89) per 10-mm Hg increase in diastolic BP (DBP), respectively. In the meta-analysis, the summary relative risks were 3.07 (95% CI, 2.15-4.38, I 2 =76.7%, n=7 studies, 2818 ADs, 4 563 501 participants) for hypertension and 1.39 (95% CI, 1.16-1.66, I 2 =47.7%, n=3) and 1.79 (95% CI: 1.51-2.12, I 2 = 57.0%, n=3) per 20-mm Hg increase in SBP and per 10-mm Hg increase in DBP, respectively. The AD risk showed a strong, positive dose-response relationship with SBP and even more so with DBP. The risk of AD in the nonlinear dose-response analysis was significant at SBP >132 mm Hg and DBP >75 mm Hg., Conclusions: Hypertension and elevated SBP and DBP are associated with a high risk of AD. The risk of AD was positively dose dependent, even within the normal BP range. These findings provide further evidence for the optimization of BP to prevent AD.