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Estuaries are dynamic environments which are driven by various natural processes like river discharge, tides, waves, influx of saline water and sediments, etc. These ecosystems are the most sensitive to sea level rise and fluctuations in river discharge associated with climate change. A direct response of sea level rise and river discharge can be observed in the water level of estuaries. However, existing models have not considered these parameters for forecasting water level. This paper focuses on developing a water level forecast model for the Chikugo River estuary in Japan using Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous inputs (NARX Model). NARX neural network was used to do the one-step-ahead prediction of water level considering the various parameters that can very well be influenced by climate change: previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Accordingly, three models were developed: (i) Model I considering previous water level; (ii) Model II additionally considering river discharge; and (iii) Model III additionally considering salinity. All the models showed appreciable performance in forecasting the water level. Model III had the best correlation with the water level with a cross-correlation value of 0.6030, while the river discharge had only a cross-correlation of 0.1113 indicating that the Chikugo River estuary is tide-dominated. The model was trained using different combinations of available data - previous water level, river discharge, and salinity. Cross-correlation results showed a better correlation between water level and salinity than various other combinations trained. Therefore, tidal intrusion influences the water level in the estuary, thereby depicting that sea level rise can affect the water level, and its influence can be well predicted by the developed model. The water level significantly affects the flora and fauna and the predictability of future estuarine floods can help in taking necessary mitigation strategies. • Water Level of Chikugo estuary forecasted using NARX model. • Analyzed the influence of previous water level, discharge and salinity. • Water level has more cross-correlation with salinity than discharge. • Forecasted the water level for various river discharge and salinity. • Model capable to analyse the influence of climate change on water level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The desorption of phosphate-phosphorus (PO4) from riverine particles with a salinity increase in Miyara River water, Ishigaki Island, Japan, was examined in laboratory experiments involving mixing of unfiltered riverine water with coastal seawater filtered through a 0.4-μm Nuclepore filter and the addition of sodium chloride (NaCl) into unfiltered riverine water. The mixing experiment yielded a convex pattern in the dissolved PO4–salinity plot, and the dissolved riverine PO4 concentration increased with the NaCl addition. These results suggested PO4 desorption from riverine particles with a salinity increase. The pattern of desorption could vary according to the sample conditions, such as the concentrations of dissolved PO4 and suspended solids. However, the obtained results seemed to simulate the convex distribution pattern in the dissolved PO4–salinity plot observed at the mouth of the Miyara River in general. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The variation of migration patterns in Dolly Varden Salvelinus malma in a stream with an artificial dam (erosion-control-dam) in the Shiretoko Peninsula, Hokkaido Island, Japan, at the southernmost part of its distribution, was examined by otolith Sr:Ca ratio analysis. All specimens from the above-dam area showed consistently low Sr:Ca ratios (<5.0 × 10−3) throughout the otolith. In contrast, many specimens from the below-dam area had higher ratios (>5.0 × 10−3) throughout the otolith or only at the outer part than do those from the above-dam area. This higher ratio is probably due to salinity effects. Specimen from the below-dam area could be divided into three types: (1) Consistently low Sr:Ca ratios throughout the otolith, being freshwater residents. (2) Low Sr:Ca ratios around the inner part of the otolith, and thereafter higher ratios toward the outer part, being typically anadromous. (3) Relatively higher Sr:Ca ratios throughout many or in some parts of the otolith, indicating that these have migrated from the freshwater to brackish water or seawater from the early life stage. These findings suggest that Dolly Varden has a high degree of plasticity in its migratory behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The responses of females of the water strider, Aquarius paludum, to changes in NaCl concentration were examined in the laboratory. The insects were sampled seasonally in 2002 and 2003 at two reservoirs in Kochi, Japan, connected by a waterway, one at the mouth of the river with high NaCl concentrations (the range in NaCl concentration during a year: 0.1-1.08%) and one 700 m upstream, where the salinity was lower (0.03-0.23%). Sudden increase in NaCl concentration, from 0.45 to 0.9%, after adult strider emergence suppressed reproduction and promoted flight activity, whereas a decrease in salinity did not affect either trait. In the field, A. paludum was univoltine in brackish and multivoltine in freshwater ponds. Thus, the number of breeding periods per year was limited by fluctuations in the NaCl concentration in brackish habitats. Our results suggest that A. paludum can breed in brackish waters when the NaCl concentration is below the limitation for reproduction and growth. Abrupt increases in NaCl concentration caused by seawater surges, such as those following typhoons, can trigger the migration of individuals, which move to areas of lower NaCl concentration and so mix the genes of individuals inhabiting brackish and freshwater bodies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Weekly variations in density of juvenile yellowfin goby Acanthogobius flavimanus with a variety of environmental variables (e.g. water temperature, salinity and transparency, and prey density) were investigated on a tidal mudflat within the Tama River estuary, central Japan, from March to July 2001. Metamorphosing newly settled juveniles occurred from mid-March to late May. Metamorphosed benthic juveniles first appeared in late March, the density sharply increasing to a peak (67.0 ind./m2) in early May but rapidly decreasing to less than 10% of that two weeks later. No consistent relationships were apparent between short-term variations in fish density by developmental stages and water temperature, or salinity. In contrast, a weak negative relation was found between juvenile density and water transparency. Further, benthic juvenile density was positively related to short-term fluctuations of errant polychaetes, which is one of the main prey items. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Early development was examined, under various salinities, for two sympatric nereidid polychaetes, Hediste japonica and H. diadroma, which participated in a simultaneous reproductive swarming in an estuary of the Omuta-gawa River in Ariake Sea, Japan. The eggs of both species were isotonic to the medium of 27.5–30 psu salinity. The egg diameter in the isotonic salinity was 180–205 μm in H. japonica, and 130–160 μm in H. diadroma. Successful development of most embryos was observed in a salinity range of 22.5–30 psu in both species, while successful fertilization occurred in wider ranges of salinity, i.e., 10–34 psu in H. japonica and 10 to 30 psu in H. diadroma. In both species, free-swimming larval life started from the indistinct hatching of trochophores out of a jelly layer capsule. The lecithotrophic development appeared to run to the 4-setiger nectochaetes in H. japonica, while to 3-setiger nectochaetes in H. diadroma, resulting in a shorter pelagic larval life in H. japonica. In a comparison of larval morphology among Hediste species, we found a definite negative correlation between the prostomium width, which represents the larval size and depends on egg size, and relative length of chaetae to the prostomium width: the relative length of chaetae was the longest in H. diadroma (with the smallest egg size and long pelagic life), intermediate in H. japonica (intermediate egg size, short pelagic life), and the shortest in H. atoka (largest egg size, no true pelagic life). We also examined the possibility of hybridization between H. japonica and H. diadroma through cross-insemination experiments. The gametes of the two species were reciprocally compatible, and viable hybrid offspring were produced by the laboratory crosses. The hybrid larvae expressed intermediate phenotypes, but with a greater maternal influence in characteristics such as the relative length of chaetae and the lecithotrophic larval duration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]