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This work extends the overlay and index methods for intrinsic groundwater vulnerability, that typically involve the soil surface and the vadose zone, to groundwater (saturated) transport. The method is "hybrid" as it combines the standard overlay and index methods with a simplified process-based approach for the groundwater component. For the latter, we make use of concept and methodologies based on geomorphological analysis, employing tools that are generally implemented in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). The proposed method is based on a simple probabilistic analysis, in which the overlay and index method (that can be any) provides the probability that the contamination reaches the groundwater through the vadose zone, while the probability that the contaminant reaches a generic location in the groundwater system is determined by analyzing the groundwater streamlines. The analysis leads to the definition of the combined vulnerability index υ , that takes care of both transport in the vadose zone and the aquifer. The method is applied to a groundwater catchment in the Campania region, Southern Italy. The method is simple and effective in assessing aquifer vulnerability in a combined vadose zone—groundwater flow system, useful for preliminary, screening analysis of the intrinsic aquifer vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change impact studies on hydrological extremes often rely on hydrological models with parameters inferred through calibration procedures using observed meteorological data as input forcing. We show that this procedure can lead to a biased evaluation of the probability distribution of high streamflow extremes when climate models are used. As an alternative approach, we introduce a methodology, coined "Hydrological Calibration of eXtremes" (HyCoX), in which the calibration of the hydrological model, as driven by climate model output, is carried out by maximizing the probability that the modeled and observed high streamflow extremes belong to the same statistical population. The application to the Adige River catchment (southeastern Alps, Italy) by means of HYPERstreamHS, a distributed hydrological model, showed that this procedure preserves statistical coherence and produces reliable quantiles of the annual maximum streamflow to be used in assessment studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]