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Objectives To examine the associations between cumulative physical activity ( PA) and its changes over 3 years and changes over 9 years of follow-up in physical performance in older adults. Design Longitudinal. Setting Community-based. Participants Men and women aged 65 and older from the Invecchiare in Chianti study (N = 782). Measurements Physical performance was assessed at baseline and at 3-, 6-, and 9-year follow-up using the Short Physical Performance Battery ( SPPB). PA was assessed through an interviewer-administered questionnaire at baseline and 3-year follow-up. Analyses were adjusted for education, body mass index, smoking, alcohol intake, coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral arterial disease, cancer, lung disease, lower extremity osteoarthritis, depression, and Mini-Mental State Examination. Results Over 3 years of follow-up, 27.8% of participants were inactive, 52.2% were minimally active, and 20.0% were active, and the PA of 37.2% decreased, there was no change in PA of 50.1% and the PA of 12.7% increased. After adjustment for potential covariates, being mostly active (−1.08, 95% confidence interval ( CI) = −1.43 to −0.73) and minimally active (−1.33, 95% CI = −1.53 to −1.12) over 3 years of follow-up was associated with less decline in SPPB score than being mostly inactive (−2.60, 95% CI = −2.92 to −2.27). When analyzing changes, increasing PA (−0.57, 95% CI = −1.01 to −0.12) was associated with less decline in SPPB score over 9 years than decreasing PA (−2.16, 95% CI = −2.42 to −1.89). Conclusion Maintaining or increasing PA levels may attenuate age-associated physical performance decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined the associations of maintaining or increasing physical activity (PA) for a 3-yr follow-up with subsequent incident inability to complete the 400-m walk test (i.e., mobility disability) for 6 yrs of follow-up in older adults. This study included 421 participants 65 yrs and older. The 400-m walk test was assessed at baseline and at 3-, 6-, and 9-yr follow-up. Physical activity was self-reported through a 6-point rating scale at baseline and 3-yr follow-up. Three-year cumulative PA (i.e., average at baseline and at 3-yr follow-up) and its changes (i.e., from baseline to 3-yr follow-up) were linked to subsequent incidence of mobility disability for 6 yrs of follow-up (i.e., from 3- to 9-yr follow-up), after adjustment for potential covariates. After the 3-yr period, incidence of mobility disability for the subsequent 6 yrs of follow-up occurred in 129 participants. The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of incident mobility disability associated with 1-category increase in cumulative PA was 0.63 (0.41-0.97, P = 0.036). The odds ratio (95% confidence interval) of incident mobility disability associated with 1-category increase in changes in PA was 0.56 (0.38-0.84, P = 0.005). Hence, maintaining or increasing PA levels is associated with a reduced risk of mobility disability among older adults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Identifying those people at increased risk of early functional decline in activities of daily living (ADL) is essential for initiating preventive interventions. The aim of this study is to develop and validate a clinical prediction model for onset of functional decline in ADL in three years of follow-up in older people of 65-75 years old., Methods: Four population-based cohort studies were pooled for the analysis: ActiFE-ULM (Germany), ELSA (United Kingdom), InCHIANTI (Italy), LASA (Netherlands). Included participants were 65-75 years old at baseline and reported no limitations in functional ability in ADL at baseline. Functional decline was assessed with two items on basic ADL and three items on instrumental ADL. Participants who reported at least some limitations at three-year follow-up on any of the five items were classified as experiencing functional decline. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to develop a prediction model, with subsequent bootstrapping for optimism-correction. We applied internal-external cross-validation by alternating the data from the four cohort studies to assess the discrimination and calibration across the cohorts., Results: Two thousand five hundred sixty community-dwelling people were included in the analyses (mean age 69.7 ± 3.0 years old, 47.4% female) of whom 572 (22.3%) reported functional decline at three-year follow-up. The final prediction model included 10 out of 22 predictors: age, handgrip strength, gait speed, five-repeated chair stands time (non-linear association), body mass index, cardiovascular disease, diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, arthritis, and depressive symptoms. The optimism-corrected model showed good discrimination with a C statistic of 0.72. The calibration intercept was 0.06 and the calibration slope was 1.05. Internal-external cross-validation showed consistent performance of the model across the four cohorts., Conclusions: Based on pooled cohort data analyses we were able to show that the onset of functional decline in ADL in three years in older people aged 65-75 years can be predicted by specific physical performance measures, age, body mass index, presence of depressive symptoms, and chronic conditions. The prediction model showed good discrimination and calibration, which remained stable across the four cohorts, supporting external validity of our findings.