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The coastal environment is vulnerable to natural hazards and human-induced stressors. The assessment and management of coastal risks have become a challenging task, due to many environmental and socio-economic risk factors together with the complex interactions that might arise through natural and human-induced pressures. This work evaluates the combined effect of climate-related stressors on low-lying coastal areas by applying a multi-risk scenario analysis through a Bayesian Network (BN) approach for the Venice coast. Based on the available open-source and remote sensing data for detecting shoreline changes, the developed BN model was trained and validated with oceanographic variables for the 2015–2019 timeframe, allowing us to understand the dynamics of local-scale shoreline erosion and related water quality parameters. Three "what-if" scenarios were carried out to analyze the relationships between oceanographic boundary conditions, shoreline evolution, and water quality parameters. The results demonstrate that changes in sea surface height and significant wave height may significantly increase the probability of high-erosion and high-accretion states. Moreover, by altering the wave direction, the water quality variables show significant changes in the higher-risk class. The outcome of this study allowed us to identify current and future coastal risk scenarios, supporting local authorities in developing adaptation plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water management in mountain regions is facing multiple pressures due to climate change and anthropogenic activities. This is particularly relevant for mountain areas where water abundance in the past allowed for many anthropogenic activities, exposing them to future water scarcity. To better understand the processes involved in water scarcity impact, an innovative stochastic System Dynamics Modelling (SDM) explores water stored and turbined in the S.Giustina reservoir (Province of Trento, Italy). The integration of outputs from climate change simulations as well as from a hydrological model and statistical models into the SDM is a quick and effective tool to simulate past and future water availability and demand conditions. Short-term RCP4.5 simulations depict conditions of highest volume and outflow reductions starting in spring (-16.1 % and -44.7 % in May compared to the baseline). Long-term RCP8.5 simulations suggest conditions of volume and outflow reductions starting in summer and lasting until the end of the year. The number of events with stored water below the 30th and above the 80th quantiles suggest a general reduction both in terms of low and high volumes. These results call for the need to adapt to acute short-term water availability reductions in spring and summer while preparing for hydroelectric production reductions due to the chronic long-term trends affecting autumn and mid-winter. This study provides results and methodological insights for potential SDM upscaling across strategic mountain socio-economic sectors (e.g., hydropower, agriculture and tourism) to expand water scarcity assessments and prepare for future multi-risk conditions and impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Integrated modelling exploring climate change impacts on coastal aquatic ecosystems. • Integration of an ensemble of 10 GCM-RCM climate projections with SWAT and AQUATOX. • Investigation of the uncertainty of hydrological and ecological parameters. • Results suggest climatic and hydrological changes influencing phytoplankton. With increasing evidences of climate change affecting coastal waters, there is a strong need to understand future climate conditions and assess the potential responses of delicate coastal ecosystems. Results of climate change studies based on only one GCM-RCM combination should be interpreted with caution as results are highly dependent on the assumptions of the selected combination. In this study we examined the uncertainty in the hydrological and ecological parameters of the Zero river basin (ZRB) – Palude di Cona (PDC) coastal aquatic ecosystem generated by the adoption of an ensemble of climate projections from ten different combinations of General Circulation Model (GCM) – Regional Climate Model (RCM) under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) implemented in the hydrological model (SWAT) and the ecological model (AQUATOX). The baseline period of 1983–2012 was used to identify climate change variations in two future periods: mid-century (2041–2070) and late-century (2071–2100) periods. SWAT outputs from the ensemble indicate a summer reduction in inorganic nitrogen loadings of 1–22% and a winter increase of 1–19%. Inorganic phosphorus loadings indicate a yearly increase of 32–61%. AQUATOX outputs from the ensemble show major changes in the summer period, with an increase in Chl-a concentration of 9–56%, a decrease in diatoms of 74–98% and an increase in cyanobacteria of 421–3590%. Obtained results confirm that the use of multiple GCM-RCM projections can provide a more robust assessment of climate change impacts on the hydrology and ecology of coastal waters, but at the same time highlight the large uncertainty of climate change-related impact studies, which can affect the decision-making processes regarding the management and preservation of sensitive aquatic ecosystems such as those in coastal areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which evaluates the scenarios for the remediation of a contaminated site at Porto Marghera in Venice, Italy using multiple indices. The study has developed nine indices designed from the Decision Support System for Rehabilitation of Contaminated Sites (DESYRE). It concludes that the proposed DESYRE indices provide complete information in evaluating the management solutions and presenting various options to decision makers to remediate contaminated lands.

The ecological risk posed by 2,3,7,8-polychlorodibenzo-p-dioxins and furans (PCDD/Fs) and dioxin-like polychlorobiphenyl (PCB) congeners to five edible fish species of the aquatic food web of Venice Lagoon, Italy, was estimated by applying a state-of the-art kinetic bioaccumulation model. Site-specific data were used to define a representative food web. The experimental data set for model validation and application included PCB and PCDD/F congener concentrations in sediments, in water, and in five organisms (both invertebrates and fish). The spatial distribution of risk was evaluated by dividing the lagoon into six homogeneous areas, and for each area, sediment, water, and organism dioxins concentrations were calculated. The bioaccumulation model was calibrated for both nonmetabolizing and metabolizing congeners, the metabolic elimination rates of which were estimated. The model validation showed an acceptable bioaccumulation estimation, evaluated using the model bias parameter. The calibrated model was applied to the six areas of the lagoon to estimate the fish predicted exposure concentration as 2,3,7,8-tetrachlorodibenzo-pdioxin toxicity equivalents from sediment concentration. Internal no-effect concentrations were calculated for each fish species from literature data. Risk was estimated by applying the hazard quotient (HQ) approach, obtaining the ecological risk for each fish species on the basis of 90 and 99% protection levels, in each of the six lagoon areas. The sediment dioxins concentration does not pose a significant risk to the selected fish species at the 90% protection target (HQ < 1), whereas risk is significant (HQ > 1) at the 99% protection target. Risk results were higher near the Porto Marghera industrial district, Italy, and in lagoon zones characterized by a low water-exchange rate and freshwater basin inputs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Because of contamination of sediments of the Lagoon of Venice, Italy, by inorganic pollutants (e.g., arsenic, cadmium, chromium, copper, lead, mercury, nickel, and zinc) and organic pollutants (e.g., polychlorobiphenyls), as well as the ecological and economical relevance of the edible clam Tapes philipinarum, an ecological risk assessment was undertaken to ascertain the extent of bioaccumulation that would pose a significant risk. Risk was estimated by means of toxic units and hazard quotient approaches, by comparing the exposure concentration with the effect concentration. Clam exposure was estimated by applying previous results based on bioaccumulation spatial regression models. In addition, a comparison was made between sum of dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) congeners and total PCB bioaccumulation provided by spatial regression models and by a partitioning model. The effect concentrations were calculated as tissue screening concentrations, as the product of pollutant sediment quality criteria and the bioaccumulation factor. Finally, the cumulative risk posed by selected inorganic pollutants and total PCBs was estimated and a map of risk was drawn. The resulting chemicals of potential ecological concern were mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and nickel, as well as, to a lesser extent, total PCBs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coastal erosion is an issue of major concern for coastal managers and is expected to increase in magnitude and severity due to global climate change. This paper analyzes the potential consequences of climate change on coastal erosion (e.g., impacts on beaches, wetlands and protected areas) by applying a Regional Risk Assessment (RRA) methodology to the North Adriatic (NA) coast of Italy. The approach employs hazard scenarios from a multi-model chain in order to project the spatial and temporal patterns of relevant coastal erosion stressors (i.e., increases in mean sea-level, changes in wave height and variations in the sediment mobility at the sea bottom) under the A1B climate change scenario. Site-specific environmental and socio-economic indicators (e.g., vegetation cover, geomorphology, population) and hazard metrics are then aggregated by means of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) with the aim to provide an example of exposure, susceptibility, risk and damage maps for the NA region. Among seasonal exposure maps winter and autumn depict the worse situation in 2070–2100, and locally around the Po river delta. Risk maps highlight that the receptors at higher risk are beaches, wetlands and river mouths. The work presents the results of the RRA tested in the NA region, discussing how spatial risk mapping can be used to establish relative priorities for intervention, to identify hot-spot areas and to provide a basis for the definition of coastal adaptation and management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Industrial and urban emissions over several decades left a legacy of contamination by persistent organic pollutants in the sediments of Venice lagoon (Italy), which might still represent a hazard for the health of ecosystems and population. A new modelling tool for integrated exposure assessment, MERLIN-Expo, was applied to simulate integrated ecological and human exposure to PCBs and dioxins. MERLIN-Expo library provides a set of environmental fate models that can be easily combined to create several scenarios, and coupled to a human intake and a physiologically-based pharmaco-kinetic (PBPK) model to simulate human internal exposure. The Phytoplankton, Invertebrate and Fish models implemented in MERLIN-Expo library were combined to create an aquatic food web and to dynamically simulate bioaccumulation and biomagnification of dioxins and PCBs. Concentrations of PCB and dioxins in water, reconstructed from concentrations in dated sediment cores, were used as time-series inputs to run long term simulations. Estimated concentrations in edible aquatic species were used to estimate daily human intake through the consumption of local seafood. Finally, the application of the PBPK model allowed to explore the accumulation of 2,3,7,8-TCDD and PCB126 in human tissues for several decades. Simulated chemical concentrations in biota were evaluated against monitoring data for four aquatic species, finding an appreciable agreement, with some differences depending on the species and target chemicals. Estimated chemical concentrations in blood were compared to real human biomonitoring data measured in adult men. Despite several assumptions included in the assessment framework, simulated concentrations resulted close to measured data (the same order of magnitude or one order of difference). The results allowed performing a preliminary ecological and human health risk assessment for the selected chemicals by evaluating the exposure estimates against benchmark values available in literature. The study provided useful insights for supporting the verification of MERLIN-Expo in a real complex exposure scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: The health status of European aquatic environments, including transitional waters such as coastal lagoons, is regulated by the Water Framework Directive (WFD), which requires the classification of the water bodies'' environmental quality and the achievement of a good ecological status by 2015. In the Venice lagoon, a transitional water body located in the northeastern part of Italy, the achievement of a good ecological status is hampered by several anthropogenic and natural pressures, such as sediment and water chemical contamination, and sediment erosion. In order to evaluate the lagoon''s environmental quality according to the WFD (i.e. 5 quality classes, from High to Bad), an integrated Weight-of-Evidence methodology was developed and applied to classify the quality of the lagoon water bodies, integrating biological, physico-chemical, chemical, ecotoxicological, and hydromorphological data (i.e. Lines of Evidence, LOE). The quality assessment was carried out in two lagoon habitat typologies (previously defined on the basis of morphological, sediment, and hydrodynamic characteristics) which were selected taking into account the ecological gradient from sea to land, and the differences in anthropogenic pressure and contamination levels. The LOE classification was carried out by using indicators scored by comparing site specific conditions to reference conditions measured in lagoon reference sites, or provided by local, national or European regulations (e.g. Environmental Quality Standards, EQS, for chemicals). Finally, the overall quality status for each water body was calculated by a probabilistic approach, i.e. by reporting the final result as the frequency distribution of quality classes. The developed procedure was applied by using data and information concerning selected LOE and collected from monitoring programs and research studies carried out in the last 15years in the lagoon of Venice. A set of sampling stations characterized by spatially and temporally coherent information for each LOE was selected, and among these stations, potential reference sites for each water body typology were identified. The quality assessment highlighted that there are specific lagoon areas, especially those located near the industrially developed area, which are highly affected by anthropogenic activities, and that chemical contamination is one of the main pressures affecting ecological status (e.g. macro-benthonic biodiversity) in the Venice lagoon. The integrated quality assessment procedure that was developed provided a new tool supporting decision making, as well as lagoon assessment and management. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Exposure characterization is a central step in Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA). Exposure level is a function of the spatial factors linking contaminants and receptors, yet exposure estimation models are traditionally non-spatial. Non-spatial models are prone to the adverse effects of spatial dependence: inflated variance and biased inferential procedures, which can result in unreliable and potentially misleading models. Such negative effects can be amended by spatial regression modelling: we propose an integration of geostatistics and multivariate spatial regression to compute efficient spatial regression parameters and to characterize exposure at under-sampled locations. The method is applied to estimate bioaccumulation models of organic and inorganic micropollutants in the tissues of the clam Tapes philipinarum. The models link bioaccumulation of micropollutants in clam tissue to a set of environmental variables sampled in the lagoon sediment. The Venetian lagoon case study exemplifies the problem of multiple variables sampled at different locations or spatial units: we propose and test an effective solution to this common and serious problem in environmental as well as socio-economic multivariate analysis. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper contributes to the critical literature that links greening initiatives with the risk of gentrification. As urban areas become greener and provide high quality amenities, they attract wealthier residents, thus channelling the benefits of greening to a few. Most existing research has analysed the results of greening initiatives once they have been completed. This article explores green gentrification as a form of strategic action, by analysing the emerging Green Tree Strategy (GTS) for Porto Marghera, Italy. This area has undergone historical greening initiatives, beginning with the "garden city" of Enebezeer Howard (1902). The GTS is the newest green regeneration initiative in Porto Marghera. The data were collected via semi-structured interviews and through an online social network survey. The results show that the GTS has a clear ideological core – built around a new strategy of perception – but also that its appeal can be challenged in terms of industrial and employment displacement. The support for the GTS is fragmented and lacks consensus in Porto Marghera. However, if local actors are to successfully resist further attempts at green gentrification, they likely need to build an alternative vision, organized around a balanced development between green infrastructures and social inclusiveness. • Sustainability and greening initiatives in cities often lead to gentrification. • The Green Tree Strategy (GTS) is an early stage greening initiative proposed for Porto Marghera, Italy. • We explore the GTS as a form of strategic action, developing in a social movement like fashion. • Green gentrification is avoidable but resisting it requires an alternative conception of equitable greening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change pressures include the dissolved oxygen decline that in lagoon ecosystems can lead to hypoxia, i.e. low dissolved oxygen concentrations, which have consequences to ecosystem functioning including biogeochemical cycling from mild to severe disruption. The study investigates the potential of machine learning (ML) and deterministic models to predict future hypoxia events. Employing ML models, e.g. Random Forest and AdaBoost, past hypoxia events (2008-2019) in the Venice Lagoon were classified with an F1 score of around 0.83, based on water quality, meteorological, and spatio-temporal factors. Future scenarios (2050, 2100) were estimated by integrating hydrodynamic-biogeochemical and climate projections. Results suggest hypoxia events will increase from 3.5 % to 8.8 % by 2100, particularly in landward lagoon areas. Summer prediction foresee a rise from 118 events to 265 by 2100, with a longer hypoxia-prone season. This model is a valuable tool for developing hypoxia scenarios, aiding in identifying restoration hotspots for climate-threatened lagoons., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

According to the latest projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, at the end of the century, coastal zones and low-lying ecosystems will be increasingly threatened by rising global mean sea levels. In order to support integrated coastal zone management and advance the basic "source-pathway-receptor-consequence" approach focused on traditional receptors (e.g., population, infrastructure, and economy), a novel risk framework is proposed able to evaluate potential risks of loss or degradation of ecosystem services (ESs) due to projected extreme sea level scenarios in the Italian coast. Three risk scenarios for the reference period (1969-2010) and future time frame up to 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are developed by integrating extreme water-level projections related to changing climate conditions, with vulnerability information about the topography, distance from coastlines, and presence of artificial protections. A risk assessment is then performed considering the potential effects of the spatial-temporal variability of inundations and land use on the supply level and spatial distribution of ESs. The results of the analysis are summarized into a spatially explicit risk index, useful to rank coastal areas more prone to ESs losses or degradation due to coastal inundation at the national scale. Overall, the Northern Adriatic coast is scored at high risk of ESs loss or degradation in the future scenario. Other small coastal strips with medium risk scores are the Eastern Puglia coast, Western Sardinia, and Tuscany's coast. The ESs Coastal Risk Index provides an easy-to-understand screening assessment that could support the prioritization of areas for coastal adaptation at the national scale. Moreover, this index allows the direct evaluation of the public value of ecosystems and supports more effective territorial planning and environmental management decisions. In particular, it could support the mainstreaming of ecosystem-based approaches (e.g., ecological engineering and green infrastructures) to mitigate the risks of climate change and extreme events while protecting ecosystems and biodiversity. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2022;18:1564-1577. © 2021 SETAC., (© 2021 SETAC.)

Water management is one of the EU environmental priorities and it is one of the most serious challenges that today's major cities are facing. The main European regulation for the protection of water resources is represented by the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and the Groundwater Directive (2006/118/EC) which require the identification, risk-based ranking and management of sources of pollution and the identification of those contamination sources that threaten the achievement of groundwater's good quality status. The aim of this paper is to present a new risk-based prioritization methodology to support the determination of a management strategy for the achievement of the good quality status of groundwater. The proposed methodology encompasses the following steps: 1) hazard analysis, 2) pathway analysis, 3) receptor vulnerability analysis and 4) relative risk estimation. Moreover, by integrating GIS functionalities and Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques, it allows to: i) deal with several sources and multiple impacted receptors within the area of concern; ii) identify different receptors' vulnerability levels according to specific groundwater uses; iii) assess the risks posed by all contamination sources in the area; and iv) provide a risk-based ranking of the contamination sources that can threaten the achievement of the groundwater good quality status. The application of the proposed framework to a well-known industrialized area located in the surroundings of Milan (Italy) is illustrated in order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed framework in supporting the identification of intervention priorities. Among the 32 sources analyzed in the case study, three sources received the highest relevance score, due to the medium-high relative risks estimated for Chromium (VI) and Perchloroethylene. The case study application showed that the developed methodology is flexible and easy to adapt to different contexts, thanks to the possibility to introduce specific relevant parameters identified according to expert judgment and data availability., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Climate change impacts on water resources, particularly groundwater, is a highly debated topic worldwide, triggering international attention and interest from both researchers and policy makers due to its relevant link with European water policy directives (e.g. 2000/60/EC and 2007/118/EC) and related environmental objectives. The understanding of long-term impacts of climate variability and change is therefore a key challenge in order to address effective protection measures and to implement sustainable management of water resources. This paper presents the modeling approach adopted within the Life+ project TRUST (Tool for Regional-scale assessment of groUndwater Storage improvement in adaptation to climaTe change) in order to provide climate change hazard scenarios for the shallow groundwater of high Veneto and Friuli Plain, Northern Italy. Given the aim to evaluate potential impacts on water quantity and quality (e.g. groundwater level variation, decrease of water availability for irrigation, variations of nitrate infiltration processes), the modeling approach integrated an ensemble of climate, hydrologic and hydrogeologic models running from the global to the regional scale. Global and regional climate models and downscaling techniques were used to make climate simulations for the reference period 1961-1990 and the projection period 2010-2100. The simulation of the recent climate was performed using observed radiative forcings, whereas the projections have been done prescribing the radiative forcings according to the IPCC A1B emission scenario. The climate simulations and the downscaling, then, provided the precipitation, temperatures and evapo-transpiration fields used for the impact analysis. Based on downscaled climate projections, 3 reference scenarios for the period 2071-2100 (i.e. the driest, the wettest and the mild year) were selected and used to run a regional geomorphoclimatic and hydrogeological model. The final output of the model ensemble produced information about the potential variations of the water balance components (e.g. river discharge, groundwater level and volume) due to climate change. Such projections were used to develop potential hazard scenarios for the case study area, to be further applied within climate change risk assessment studies for groundwater resources and associated ecosystems. This paper describes the models' chain and the methodological approach adopted in the TRUST project and analyzes the hazard scenarios produced in order to investigate climate change risks for the case study area., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

A Weight of Evidence approach was applied to define three integrated effect indexes estimating the impairment on terrestrial ecosystems caused by the stressor(s) of concern. According to a Triad approach, the integrated effect indexes combined the information provided by the measurement endpoints of each line of evidence (chemistry/bioavailability, ecology and ecotoxicology) and allowed to analyse the impairment degree highlighted by each measurement endpoint as difference from the reference condition. Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) was used for the aggregation of the complementary Triad information, including expert judgement and a weighted procedure based on the endpoint sensitivity and the sensitivity of the test for ecosystem effects. The developed methodology was implemented in the DSS-ERAMANIA, Module 2, and is presented in this paper as "Integrated Effect Indexes" (IEI) sub-module. The latter has been preliminary applied to the Acna di Cengio (Italy) contaminated site; the results of this application are presented and discussed.

A methodology for selecting remediation technologies is presented as part of a decision support system for the rehabilitation of contaminated sites. It includes 2 steps: In the 1st step, a pool of suitable technologies is selected within a technologies database according to their applicability to site-specific conditions; in the 2nd step, the selected technologies: are ranked according to a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach. The MCDA was applied to allow for a transparent procedure and for the integration of expert analyses. The methodology was implemented in a previously developed georeferenced information system-based decision support system for the rehabilitation of contaminated sites and then applied to a case study (Porto Marghera, Venice, Italy). On the basis of the obtained results, the proposed methodology appeared suitable to select remediation technologies according to both technical features and requirements of available technologies, as well as site-specific environmental conditions of the site of concern, such as chemical contamination levels and remediation objectives.

A stepwise human health risk assessment procedure carried out using American Society for Testing and Materials methodology was applied to three contaminated sites located in northern Italy: an uncontrolled landfill, an abandoned industrial site and an industrial waste contaminated land. Two different tiers of analysis were performed by means of the analytical model RBCA Tool Kit and the numerical model API-DSS, respectively. The latter was applied according to both a deterministic and a probabilistic risk analysis. The comparison of the two approaches highlighted the great benefit provided by probabilistic analysis for the risk assessment based on site specific parameters and more complex models, in particular for groundwater exposure route. Finally, the risk-based site specific target levels were compared to the generic regulatory threshold limits fixed by the Italian regulation. The comparison showed the regulatory limits generally too restrictive for non-carcinogenic substances but less protective for carcinogenic chemicals, outlining the need of a site-specific risk assessment especially for carcinogenic substances.

A complex multiple aquifer system affected by a contaminated site and exposed to tidal effects was investigated to develop the hydrogeological conceptual model of the study case. Two water bodies were identified, from top to down: a surface aquifer unaffected by tidal events, and a semiconfined aquifer partly communicating with the brackish lagoon waters. By using the Cl(-)/SO4(2-) ratio and the DOC (Dissolved Organic Carbon) concentration, as well as by applying the kriking to the piezometric levels results, the groundwater flow directions and the hydraulic gradients within the investigated aquifers were also identified. Based on the overall results, a schematic of the conceptual model for the whole aquifer system was provided which allows to visualize the communication between the different water bodies.

The characterization of a hydrologically complex contaminated site bordering the lagoon of Venice (Italy) was undertaken by investigating soils and groundwaters affected by the chemical contaminants originated by the wastes dumped into an illegal landfill. Statistical tools such as principal components analysis and geostatistical techniques were applied to obtain the spatial distribution of chemical contaminants. Dissolved organic carbon (DOC), SO4(2-) and Cl- were used to trace the migration of the contaminants from the top soil to the underlying groundwaters. The chemical and hydrogeological available information was assembled to obtain the schematic of the conceptual model of the contaminated site capable to support the formulation of major exposure scenarios, which are also provided.