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Aims: We investigated the association between quantified metabolite, lipid and lipoprotein measures and incident heart failure hospitalisation (HFH) in the elderly, and examined whether circulating metabolic measures improve HFH prediction., Methods and Results: Overall, 80 metabolic measures from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) trial were measured by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (n = 5341; 182 HFH events during 2.7-year follow-up). We repeated the work in FINRISK 1997 (n = 7330; 133 HFH events during 5-year follow-up). In PROSPER, the circulating concentrations of 13 metabolic measures were found to be significantly different in those who were later hospitalised for heart failure after correction for multiple comparisons. These included creatinine, phenylalanine, glycoprotein acetyls, 3-hydroxybutyrate, and various high-density lipoprotein measures. In Cox models, two metabolites were associated with risk of HFH after adjustment for clinical risk factors and N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP): phenylalanine [hazard ratio (HR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10-1.53; P = 0.002] and acetate (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.98; P = 0.026). Both were retained in the final model after backward elimination. Compared to a model with established risk factors and NT-proBNP, this model did not improve the C-index but did improve the overall continuous net reclassification index (NRI 0.21; 95% CI 0.06-0.35; P = 0.007) due to improvement in classification of non-cases (NRI 0.14; 95% CI 0.12-0.17; P < 0.001). Phenylalanine was replicated as a predictor of HFH in FINRISK 1997 (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03-1.48; P = 0.023)., Conclusion: Our findings identify phenylalanine as a novel predictor of incident HFH, although prediction gains are low. Further mechanistic studies appear warranted., (© 2017 The Authors. European Journal of Heart Failure published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Society of Cardiology.)

Background: Heart rate and heart rate variability, markers of cardiac autonomic function, have been linked with cardiovascular disease. We investigated whether heart rate and heart rate variability are associated with functional status in older adults, independent of cardiovascular disease., Methods: We obtained data from the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER). A total of 5042 participants were included in the present study, and mean follow-up was 3.2 years. Heart rate and heart rate variability were derived from baseline 10-second electrocardiograms. Heart rate variability was defined as the standard deviation of normal-to-normal RR intervals (SDNN). Functional status in basic (ADL) and instrumental (IADL) activities of daily living was measured using Barthel and Lawton scales, at baseline and during follow-up., Results: The mean age of the study population was 75.3 years. At baseline, higher heart rate was associated with worse ADL and IADL, and lower SDNN was related to worse IADL (all p values < 0.05). Participants in the highest tertile of heart rate (range 71-117 beats/min) had a 1.79-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.45-2.22) and 1.35-fold (95% CI 1.12-1.63) higher risk of decline in ADL and IADL, respectively (p for trend < 0.001 and 0.001, respectively). Participants in the lowest tertile of SDNN (range 1.70-13.30 ms) had 1.21-fold (95% CI 1.00-1.46) and 1.25-fold (95% CI 1.05-1.48) higher risk of decline in ADL and IADL, respectively (both p for trends < 0.05). All associations were independent of sex, medications, cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities., Interpretation: Higher resting heart rate and lower heart rate variability were associated with worse functional status and with higher risk of future functional decline in older adults, independent of cardiovascular disease. This study provides insight into the role of cardiac autonomic function in the development of functional decline., (© 2015 Canadian Medical Association or its licensors.)

Background: Inflammation is involved in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline. Interleukin-6 (IL-6) has a role in cardiovascular disease, but the association of IL-6 concentration and the functional IL-6 -174 polymorphism with cognitive decline has not been demonstrated unequivocally. The objective of this study was to investigate the associations between both high concentration of IL-6 and the -174 promoter polymorphism, and increased cognitive decline in old age., Methods: Over 5000 participants of the Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) with a mean age of 75 years and a history of cardiovascular disease or its risk factors were included in this study. We determined baseline concentrations of IL-6 and genotype of the IL-6 -174 polymorphism, of which the C allele was previously shown to be associated with higher circulating concentrations of IL-6. A cognitive test battery was administered at baseline and repeatedly during follow-up (mean 39 months)., Results: In the cross-sectional analysis of 5653 participants, higher IL-6 concentration was associated with worse executive cognitive function (P < 0.001), independent of cardiovascular disease status and risk factors. No association was found between IL-6 concentration and memory function (P > 0.14). In the prospective analysis, higher IL-6 concentration was associated with an increased rate of cognitive decline in both executive function (P = 0.002) and memory function (P = 0.002), again independent of cardiovascular disease status and risk factors. Although not associated with IL-6 concentrations, the IL-6 -174 CC genotype was associated with worse performance on the Stroop test (P = 0.045)., Conclusions: Higher circulating levels of IL-6 were associated with worse cognitive function and steeper cognitive decline and provide preliminary genetic evidence for a potential causal association. The findings support the importance of the need for further investigation of the IL-6 pathway in cognitive decline., (© 2013 The Association for the Publication of the Journal of Internal Medicine.)

Objective: To clarify the association of circulating levels of leptin with risk for cardiovascular disease (CVD) events and new-onset diabetes in men and women., Research Design and Methods: We related baseline leptin levels to CVD events (n = 864) and incident diabetes (n = 289) in an elderly population (n = 5,672) over 3.2 years of follow-up., Results: In treatment-, age-, and country-adjusted models, leptin was not associated with risk of CVD in men (hazard ratio 1.02 [95% CI 0.90-1.16] per unit log-leptin increase) or women (1.05 [0.91-1.20]) but was associated with risk of diabetes in men (2.75 [2.14-3.52]) and women (1.54 [1.22-1.94]). After adjusting for classic risk factors and BMI, C-reactive protein, and glucose, the diabetes association retained significance in men (1.85 [1.30-2.63]) but not in women (0.89 [0.64-1.26])., Conclusions: Leptin, similar to other markers of adiposity in general, is more strongly related to risk of diabetes than CVD in the elderly.