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What counterinsurgent tactics pursued by governments lead to the pacification of insurgents? Some governments pursue iron fist techniques, or repressive counterinsurgent tactics to reduce the capabilities of insurgents. An alternative, velvet glove operations, have the same goal of pacifying the opposition, but are implemented using less aggressive tactics. Case studies of counterinsurgent techniques often demonstrate that more aggressive tactics may actually increase participation in insurgencies as indiscriminant violence pushes potential rebels into active rebellion. Empirical evidence, however, reveal the brutal efficiency of iron fist tactics when unrestrained by domestic or international audiences. In this paper, using events data from Iraq, I evaluate the relative efficacy of these approaches in the current insurgency facing the US and its partners. I also identify the implications for counterinsurgency in other contexts. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

From as early as the Roman Empire to the present, governments have faced staunch political violence from organized, insurgent groups. In this paper, we contend that insurgencies cannot be easily categorized because through the course of an insurgency both insurgents and counterinsurgents depend critically on the members of the population for support. Whereas insurgents need recruits and material resources from the population, the government seeks to deter this assistance by stopping the flow of resources or by providing economic incentives to the population. Governments fare better, therefore, when they correctly identify and influence the commitment level of members of the population (as opposed to the commitment of insurgents themselves). Using an agent-based computational model, we demonstrate that a government response or counterinsurgent strategy is most successful when identifying and influencing the population?s commitment level. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the model for the current insurgency in Iraq. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]